Strategic Telemetry was able to compare the results of this most recent survey to a number of microtargeting models in order to predict by State Senate district the number of voters who would support recalling Walker, and the number who would be willing to take action.
Walker will not be subject to a recall until he has served one year in office. After he has served one year, a recall would require the signatures of approximately 532,970 voters (25% of the total 2010 gubernatorial vote). Based on the results of this most recent survey and microtargeting models,
it is estimated that more than 1.1 million voters statewide would be willing to sign a recall petition if asked.
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Although the survey did not ask about specific State Senators, if one assumes that voters who want to recall Walker would also want to recall State Senators who support Walker's plan, the results are truly troubling for the eight Republican State Senators
who were elected in 2008 and are subject to immediate recall.
In six of the eight districts, it is estimated that a majority of voters are opposed to Walker's budget. Even in the two districts where a majority of voters support the budget, opponents are sufficiently energized that the estimated number willing to sign a recall petition is well in excess of the number needed.