Comments from the Devs

[Spider-Dan]

It's not balancing anything when the "decision" (lol) making process is so rudimentary and robotic.

Making you input multiple commands in order to feign complexity and depth isn't balance, it's trivial.

I'm not evaluating its complexity or depth.

I'm saying that 0% fail rate on recipes up to ten levels above you is an improvement over 5% fail rate on recipes 50 levels below you. If you think 0% fail rate on a recipe ten levels above you is reasonable, I guess that's your prerogative.

[Niiro]

Not talking about recipes 10 levels above.

[Spider-Dan]

Eliminating the possibility of failure for NQ around your level or lower is exactly what they did in XIV. You told me yourself that you had 100% success rates, and I'm certain everyone else does.

Right now, I have 100% success (while paying attention) on any synth at R50. Is it your argument that anything that I am permitted to synth, I should have 100% success rate?

[Spider-Dan]

Not talking about recipes 10 levels above.

Why does that even matter? Everything you said about the triviality of crafting applies just as equally to a synth 10 levels above as it does to a synth 40 levels below you.

You have the ability to opt-out of the mindless crafting minigame with Hasty Hand (complete with the x% fail rate), so I'm not even sure what your objection is.

[Kaylia]

I'm not evaluating its complexity or depth.

I'm saying that 0% fail rate on recipes up to ten levels above you is an improvement over 5% fail rate on recipes 50 levels below you. If you think 0% fail rate on a recipe ten levels above you is reasonable, I guess that's your prerogative.

The argument is not about ffxiv balance being better or worse than ffxi, it's about the purpose of this shitty minigame.

You say it give you more control over the outcome when it does not. There is no real choice, and everything else is rolled by the game. You're just sitting through a series of random events and crossing your finger.

[edit]
You're completely deluded if you believe that you have any control over the process. Changing your plan halfway through a craft simply mean you didn't plan ahead.

[Spider-Dan]

You say it give you more control over the outcome when it does not. There is no real choice, and everything else is rolled by the game.

Please stop with this deterministic BS. I can clearly choose to use Hasty Hand (bypassing the minigame for instant pass/fail) or go through the minigame to reduce my fail %.

[Thiefami]

The argument is not about ffxiv balance being better or worse than ffxi, it's about the point of this minigame.

You said it give you more control when it does not. There is no real choice, and everything else is rolled by the game.

You're completely deluded if you believe you have any control over the process if you're changing your "plan" halfway through a craft

Not sure if it is Dan's case or not, but a lot of people will refuse to admit that they feel any changes to crafting that will simplify the process somehow invalidates the time, energy, and effort invested into their craft(s).

[Niiro]

Why does that even matter? Everything you said about the triviality of crafting applies just as equally to a synth 10 levels above as it does to a synth 40 levels below you.

You have the ability to opt-out of the mindless crafting minigame with Hasty Hand (complete with the x% fail rate), so I'm not even sure what your objection is.

I can turbocraft something 5 levels above me with a 90%+ success rate for exp (with increasing success rate as the gap closes).

If the cursor did not default to allow turbocrafting, I would not level any crafts (even with it my highest is only 39).

Hasty hand does not fix that.

And Kaylia, you're exaggerating a bit on the lack of control you have over the success of a difficult synth (or when trying to HQ).

[Kaylia]

Please stop with this deterministic BS. I can clearly choose to use Hasty Hand (bypassing the minigame for instant pass/fail) or go through the minigame to reduce my fail %.

It's fucking statistics.



And yes, you're allowed to pick the worst odd if you want. It's retarded and no one will, but you can.

Not sure if it is Dan's case or not, but a lot of people will refuse to admit that they feel any changes to crafting to simplify the process somehow invalidates the time, energy, and effort invested into their craft(s).

It doesn't seem to be the case. He just have a piss poor understanding of statistics. Considering he asked what was the difference between "overall party damage" and "dps" in the parser thread, I'm not even sure why I'm bothering with this.

However, I agree with you this mentality is very common in FFXI/XIV, and explain why many are afraid of any kind of change.

[Kaylia]

And Kaylia, you're exaggerating a bit on the lack of control you have over the success of a difficult synth (or when trying to HQ).

Every scenarios can (and should be) computed before you start crafting. You can literally decide of a risk threshold and never let your NQ rate drop under that %.

This threshold can be lowered in favor of speed OR HQ, but once again, it is a decision that can be made before you start crafting.


Like i said a few page ago, they should just let you select a few gambit (like ffxii) that handle the crafting for you. It would involve the same "optimization" problems, but it wouldn't be an hassle to deal with.

[miokomioko]

Aaaaand I'm sold on 1.21. /BLOWKISS

[Spider-Dan]

Hey, Mr. Statistician:

Is 95% the same as 95% * 95% * 95% * 95% * 95%?

Why do you have such a hard time grasping the concept that adding more pass/fail calculations affects the ultimate success rate of the synth? You keep arguing for some hypothetical scenario where a single pass/fail calculation could be set to the same probability as the string of calculations we are currently using, but here's a newsflash: IT ISN'T. Hasty Hand can show you this instantly.

[Spider-Dan]

I can turbocraft something 5 levels above me with a 90%+ success rate for exp (with increasing success rate as the gap closes).

If the cursor did not default to allow turbocrafting, I would not level any crafts (even with it my highest is only 39).

Hasty hand does not fix that.

I am unable to determine your point here.

1) The cursor is defaulted to allow turbocrafting, so you're discussing a problem that has been solved.
2) Even if it wasn't defaulted so, turbocrafting has nothing to do with the option to pay attention and guarantee success (i.e. the thing I am praising).

As best I can tell, your argument was that the minigame is poorly designed. That's fine, and I don't necessarily dispute it. I'm saying that playing the (tedious, linear, etc.) minigame, as opposed to turbocraft or Hasty Hand, gives you an option for guaranteed success. And that's a good thing.

If you think that success should always be guaranteed, that's fine. I don't. And (to address a side point) it's not because of my "existing investment" or whatever; I prefer a system where paying attention/cross-classing gives me a better chance to complete a synth.

[Kaylia]

Hey, Mr. Statistician:

Is 95% the same as 95% * 95% * 95% * 95% * 95%?

Why do you have such a hard time grasping the concept that adding more pass/fail calculations affects the ultimate success rate of the synth? You keep arguing for some hypothetical scenario where a single pass/fail calculation could be set to the same probability as the string of calculations we are currently using, but here's a newsflash: IT ISN'T. Hasty Hand can show you this instantly.

No, 95% is the same as 99% *99% *99% *99% *99%. Rolling 5 times 95% give you a success rate of 77% (which is hilarious since I'm sure you thought it was higher).

If you only had 5 choices, and failure on one meant that you lose your NQ, a 99% failure rate on "standard" would mean that you would have a failure rate equal to 95%. The situation in FFXIV is a little more complex however since you have way more more than 5 rolls, and you also have to include the random stamina drop in the process.


It's funny that you think I'm talking about hypothetical scenario, when I'm talking about optimizing the very real situation in game.

[Kaylia]

@Spider

Hasty hands is no different from any other options. It just give you something to fall back on when the chance of finishing your craft is lower than hasty hand. It would be dumb not to take the choices that has the highest success rate.

[Spider-Dan]

No, 95% is the same as 99% *99% *99% *99% *99%. Rolling 5 times 95% give you a success rate of 77% (which is hilarious since I'm sure you thought it was higher).

If you only had 5 choices, and failure on one meant that you lose your NQ, a 99% failure rate on "standard" would mean that you would have a failure rate equal to 95%.

But failure on one doesn't mean you lose your NQ; you have to fail A BUNCH OF THEM IN A ROW. This is as opposed to a single 95% pass attempt.

It's funny that you think I'm talking about hypothetical scenario, when I'm talking about optimizing the very real situation in game.

No, you aren't (unless "optimizing" is your code word for "this is hypothetical").

You said it yourself (emphasis added):

In the end, the chance of success is entirely determined by a series of random rolls that could be replaced with a single roll with weighted probabilities.

A "single roll" exists in the game right now. It's called Hasty Hand.
Does this single roll have the same probability of success as playing the minigame? No, it does not.
Therefore, you are necessarily discussing a hypothetical change in which the single roll has the same weighted probability as the series of rolls we are doing now.

There is no single roll in the game that has the same probability of success as playing the minigame to completion. I defy you to show otherwise.

P.S.

Hasty hands is no different. It just give you something to fall back on when the chance of finishing your craft is lower than hasty hand's %.

Gee, it sure sounds like you're saying that choosing to use Hasty Hand can affect your chances of successfully completing a synth. Perhaps you want to reword that?

[Kurokikaze]

The Spider-Dan moment is brought to you by Walbogs.

[Kaylia]

But failure on one doesn't mean you lose your NQ; you have to fail A BUNCH OF THEM IN A ROW. This is as opposed to a single 95% pass attempt.

I was following your fictional scenario... I even said the game doesn't work that way in the post you quoted


Your understanding of statistics never cease to amaze me. It doesn't matter if it requires 1 success, 2 successes or 10 billions successes, you will always have a chance of failing every dice rolls. The odds of succeeding 3 times out of 5 isn't inherently higher than succeeding 5 times out of 5 when the events in both situations have different probability. It could easily be 95% in both case.


Just takes any craft above your level (especially at low level), you're going to fail often regardless of the choice you pick. There is nothing to do against that.

Gee, it sure sounds like you're saying that choosing to use Hasty Hand can affect your chances of successfully completing a synth. Perhaps you want to reword that?

Pick your answer

a)12% chance of success
b)48% chance of success

TOUGH CHOICE.


[edit]

For the 10 billionth times, all there is to crafting is success rate, HQ, and speed (# of item crafted/hours). Once you picked which parameter you want to optimize, the path to follow is fucking obvious. It's just a question of picking the only real choice you have on that list and waiting for the long animation to end.

[Spider-Dan]

It doesn't matter if it requires 1 success, 2 successes or 10 billions successes, you will always have a chance of failing every dice rolls. The odds of succeeding 3 times out of 5 isn't inherently higher than succeeding 5 times out of 5 when the events in both situations have different probability. It could easily be 95% in both case.

This from the guy who "isn't talking about hypotheticals."

In THIS GAME, participating in the minigame provides A HIGHER CHANCE OF SUCCESS than opting out (either via turbocrafting or Hasty Hand). True or false?

Just takes any craft above your level (especially at low level), you're going to fail often regardless of the choice you pick.

R50s (with appropriate abilities) can craft anything in the game with ~100% success, including recipes "above their level." You have said as much yourself. Therefore, when you are talking about "failing often," I have to infer that you are talking about failing on one particular action (e.g. Standard Synthesis) on your way to a successful NQ. WHICH NO ONE CARES ABOUT.

Niiro already pointed this out to you, but choosing the correct actions makes a significant impact when crafting something above your level. I don't know if you're still trying to claim that the fact that an optimal strategy exists somehow makes the entire process deterministic and therefore pointless, but (particularly on synths at or above your level) the choices you make while crafting matter. It's absurd to claim otherwise.

For the 10 billionth times, all there is to crafting is success rate, HQ, and speed (# of item crafted/hours). Once you picked which parameter you want to optimize, the path to follow is fucking obvious. It's just a question of picking the only real choice you have on that list and waiting for the long animation to end.

The fact that you have the opportunity to make choices that increase your success rate (even if YOU view those choices as "fucking obvious") is

LITERALLY.
THE.
ENTIRE.
POINT.

If you DON'T want to make those choices, either turbocraft or Hasty Hand and accept your non-zero failure rate with a smile.

[Kaylia]

Learn to fucking read, and never do maths again. Please.