Inflation observations/strategies

[Cymmina]

Mage's Ballad is another scroll that is very easy to get yet is high priced. 300k+ for a scroll that literally takes no effort other than forming a party of 6 people. I remember getting this scroll back in like '06 on my original character and don't remember it being even near 300k. The problem with this scroll is that this quest is literally the only way to get it and the quest isn't repeatable. By now I'd think most people who would be interested in this scroll would have done the quest already. This makes it especially obnoxious to get since you can't even solo the quest, it requires 6 people.

Unless you happen to be Galka, then it is a royal pain in the ass.

[Michelob]

One major flaw with Byrth's cruor argument that I can see is the fact that many people view 200k Primeval Brews to be worth far more (in either time saved or gil made as a result from using them) than NPCing cruor gear.

Of course, this is a two-sided coin; once abyssea gear is outclassed, or also once the level cap increases even further, brews may be used far less, in turn increasing the amount of gil dumped into the system by NPCing cruor gear. My guess is that if there aren't more gil sinks added by level 95, there will be a significant increase in the inflation of our economy even from the state in which it is currently.

[urat]

One major flaw with Byrth's cruor argument that I can see is the fact that many people view 200k Primeval Brews to be worth far more (in either time saved or gil made as a result from using them) than NPCing cruor gear.

Of course, this is a two-sided coin; once abyssea gear is outclassed, or also once the level cap increases even further, brews may be used far less, in turn increasing the amount of gil dumped into the system by NPCing cruor gear. My guess is that if there aren't more gil sinks added by level 95, there will be a significant increase in the inflation of our economy even from the state in which it is currently.

I don't think empyrean weapons will ever be able to be "outclassed" per say, there will probably be demand for brews for all the T3s that drop emp items even at 99.

[Apelila]

Yea I posted before reading all of the first page.

I did want to ask though since it was specifically mentioned. What did cause the Christmas inflation that year? I know a bit about economics and always chalked that up to Gil buying with record lows(was something like 1mil for 3 bucks) and the holidays helping. If that isn't what caused it then what did?

I didn't see this responded to outside of 'it was Christmas' so I'll throw in a couple known things / speculation. That situation can be traced ultimately back to a very simple cycle.

1: Gil sellers mostly controlled all the high end AH equipment from NM's. o-kote, Fuma, Archer rings, emp hairpin etc. Depending on the server, they where also starting to infest Sky. It's debatable whether they all used bots, but many people from the time can attest to watching characters fly through the air, and mobs not only spawn purple but in some cases spawn with at the same time the party fighting them loaded.

Some of this is speculation, since not every person camping the NM's where GS and not all the money spent on the items went back to them. But they did partially monopolize some items, and made sky a pain in the ass for certain.

This meant that most of the money spent @ the AH went back to them. So that 10 mil bought because it was 10$ went back to their coffers, in theory, whenever it was spent on the 'necessary' items. This is why a lot of NM's got changed to rare/ex items.

2: Duping gil

There were 2 parts to this. I forget the exact item, I think it was part of the corazza set or the subligara. It went like this(approx): In the Tavnazian safehold there's an NPC that sells overpriced equipment. Like, 6-8 Million$ overpriced. You could buy it for 8$ Mil and sell it back to the NPC for 8.2. It introduced an increadible amount of money into the system. This did happen, though i probably have the amounts wrong.

The second was a dbox trick that I read about but was fixed before the inflation iirc. If I'm wrong correct me, please. The original way the dbox worked was to list the items being delivered then when you took something out of the box it would notify the server that the item was taken out, after putting it in inventory.
The dupe was that you could take out gil/item, the game would put it in inventory but if you interrupted the connection for the client to send notice to the server that the gil/item was removed, it wouldn't flag. So the gil/inventory of the player would change but not the dbox, and all you would have to do is check your box again for a double payment.

Obviously they fixed the item NPC prices. They changed the way that items were retrieved, which is why you 'have to wait longer' when checking your dbox more than once. Later they made it so you could only send gil to one person at a time using the dbox as a direct combat to RMT, since before a single 'bank' could send to many people @ once.

3: Profit

So you now have a system where currency is being inflated at an astounding rate through creation, and lets say....50% of the money being created/sold is going back to its source. Increased supply lets the people selling currency drop prices, while prices on the AH sky rocket. Soon 5 mil scorpion harnesses and 10 mil Mantel's are normal, some bullshit items like gluttony sword and astral rope break the 1 mil barrier.

So now a lot of players who are still 'new' to the game are facing a increase that came out of nowhere. What sold for 100k one day sky rocketed to over a mil the next week. Suddenly 10$ worth of gil vs hours of bullshit farming doesn't seem like a bad deal, especially given that their savings of 50k wont even buy a stack of food. Christmas contributed no question, but there where other things that allowed the system to get out of control.

SE fixed the gil duping from NPC's which stopped prices rising. Once they started banhammering currency sellers prices reversed at a steady if unfortunately slower trend. will proof read later, work got busy.

[Byrthnoth]

One major flaw with Byrth's cruor argument that I can see is the fact that many people view 200k Primeval Brews to be worth far more (in either time saved or gil made as a result from using them) than NPCing cruor gear.

Of course, this is a two-sided coin; once abyssea gear is outclassed, or also once the level cap increases even further, brews may be used far less, in turn increasing the amount of gil dumped into the system by NPCing cruor gear. My guess is that if there aren't more gil sinks added by level 95, there will be a significant increase in the inflation of our economy even from the state in which it is currently.

It's a gil earned to timed saved calculation again. Brews are worth 500k. You can do most Empyrean NMs with 2 people. Could you make at least 500k (or 250k/person) in the same amount of time that you save when you brew? If so, it's financially beneficial to brew the monster.

A lot of the time, I'd argue that it is. Five Glavoids in 10 minutes instead of an hour? 50 minutes for two people at 1mil/hour? Looks like we just made money by brewing. So if you're only using brews when it's logically the right thing to do, brews don't affect the economics of the situation. You use a brew because the time you saved is worth more than the gil value of the brew. The difference is that the gil comes from within the system.

At the moment, this may be what's stopping people from converting their cruor into gil. Gil is valued very low, and time saved is valued very high. If gil becomes harder to get, more desirable (relics/mythics becoming good again), or the Abyssea NMs become even easier, this might change. The potential for inflation is there, but it isn't happening because it's more worthwhile for people to speed up their empyrean farming.

Somehow I just made the safety of the economy depend on the superiority of empyrean weapons. I should take this to the official forums.

[Michelob]

I don't think empyrean weapons will ever be able to be "outclassed" per say, there will probably be demand for brews for all the T3s that drop emp items even at 99.

5 (and likewise 9) levels makes a huge difference. Things that people are brewing now, they probably will be much less inclined to brew at 95 or higher. No single empyrean item-dropping mob can't be easily killed right now with 6 people or less (much less in most situations). At 95 or 99 most of those (that aren't already) will become extremely fast duos. The demand for brews is sure to decrease as the levels increase.

[Tribe]

25M Dusk Gloves +1 would like a word with you

2mil you mean?

[Michelob]

It's a gil earned to timed saved calculation again. Brews are worth 500k. You can do most Empyrean NMs with 2 people. Could you make at least 500k (or 250k/person) in the same amount of time that you save when you brew? If so, it's financially beneficial to brew the monster.

A lot of the time, I'd argue that it is. Five Glavoids in 10 minutes instead of an hour? 50 minutes for two people at 1mil/hour? Looks like we just made money by brewing. So if you're only using brews when it's logically the right thing to do, brews don't affect the economics of the situation. You use a brew because the time you saved is worth more than the gil value of the brew. The difference is that the gil comes from within the system.

At the moment, this may be what's stopping people from converting their cruor into gil. Gil is valued very low, and time saved is valued very high. If gil becomes harder to get, more desirable (relics/mythics becoming good again), or the Abyssea NMs become even easier, this might change. The potential for inflation is there, but it isn't happening because it's more worthwhile for people to speed up their empyrean farming.

Somehow I just made the safety of the economy depend on the superiority of empyrean weapons. I should take this to the official forums.

I agree with this, but my point was simply that as long as there is something in abyssea worth saving brews for, many people will be saving them just so that they have the option of brewing should the occasion arise. If there is nothing left worth brewing in the game, then and only then will I be turning my cruor into gil by NPCing the cruor gear.

Empyreans aren't the only thing worth brewing, by the way. I funded the last stage of my apocalypse mostly by soloing (2box) Epona's rings with a brew for much much higher than the alleged 500k worth that you are giving them. In my eyes, 500k is not the worth of a brew; 500k is the floor for the worth of a brew. Personally, my brews are worth no less than 3m.

Edit:

So if you're only using brews when it's logically the right thing to do, brews don't affect the economics of the situation. You use a brew because the time you saved is worth more than the gil value of the brew. The difference is that the gil comes from within the system.

I disagree. The fact that brews are worth using at all does affect the economics of the situation; it keeps gil introduction via cruor in check. If there wasn't a logical use of brews (as you say) then all of the cruor gained would be turned into gil.

[Theraven]

stuff

also don't forget rusty cap (synthed into padded cap) fishing/botting. This introduced a TON of gil into the system as well. Ahh, the days of 10k+/stack of light crystals.

[Mrbeansman]

5 (and likewise 9) levels makes a huge difference. Things that people are brewing now, they probably will be much less inclined to brew at 95 or higher. No single empyrean item-dropping mob can't be easily killed right now with 6 people or less (much less in most situations). At 95 or 99 most of those (that aren't already) will become extremely fast duos. The demand for brews is sure to decrease as the levels increase.

You're assuming casual Joe can duo or trio stuff like Bukhis and Glavoid. Just look at some of the recent events that have been posted in random fail some people cant even do Amun without a brew.

[vagus]

Cruor and traverser stones are the only currencies that count these days. Maybe when relics become useful again this will change, but for now gil is about as important as conquest points.

I just found this thread. And everyone makes a good point but i think weeks has it dead on. Large amount of gil isn't needed to obtain gear. However if you're smart & "rich" enough, having gil does speed things up as you don't need to farm pop items. At the end of the day it comes down to how much time you want to spend in abyssea obtaining items. Less time = more gil.

Unless SE decides to give players a super elite, AV type NM's that drops items that are sellable Gil will be as valuable as the rand.

[Michelob]

You're assuming casual Joe can duo or trio stuff like Bukhis and Glavoid. Just look at some of the recent events that have been posted in random fail some people cant even do Amun without a brew.

Those people wiping to Amun most obviously don't have one or multiple of the following: proper abyssites, proper atma, and 3/3 lunars.

Given level 99, yes I'm assuming casual Joe can duo and trio stuff like Buhkis and Glavoid given that we have access to a myriad of temps that can make you borderline invincible even without the use of a brew.

If in 10 (80 to 90) levels AV went from being zerged in under 90 seconds by 24 people down to 12 people or less, I think at 99 Buhkis and Glavoid will be easily zerged in a somewhat similar fashion by 6 people or less. If not by everyone, then certainly by most which means that most people will have no need for brews any longer which in turn means more cruor being converted into gil.

[Michelob]

I just found this thread. And everyone makes a good point but i think weeks has it dead on. Large amount of gil isn't needed to obtain gear. However if you're smart & "rich" enough, having gil does speed things up as you don't need to farm pop items. At the end of the day it comes down to how much time you want to spend in abyssea obtaining items. Less time = more gil.

Unless SE decides to give players a super elite, AV type NM's that drops items that are sellable Gil will be as valuable as the rand.

I totally disagree. I personally sell anything from seals to af3+2 items to boss clears to atma to any rare/ex drop in the game for gil and I do so quite frequently. Therefore gil is valuable to these people because it gets them gear. Gil is likewise valuable to me because it buys me food, alexandrite, dynamis currency, and any other piece of synergized or crafted piece of equipment that I could possibly want. All of these people who insist that gil is not valuable at this stage of the game seriously drive me crazy.

[Innuendo]

Well you obviously have a good reason to want gil. I make more than enough to keep up with food and tools just by selling crap I get doing other things. I'm reluctant to spend big bucks on crafted equipment before the level 99 cap, which really means I'm just not bothered enough to hoarde for what's best right now (and I get the feeling a lot of people see it similarly). It's not that gil isn't valuable, it's that the benefit from having a lot of it isn't great enough to grab my attention/time at the moment, I suppose.

[vagus]

That's the thing, Gil isn't as valuable as it once was. Sure a hardcore player with a lot of gil can accomplish a lot. However even with minimal gil, the same gear can be obtained as well. Gil allows a player to obtain more items faster.

[Michelob]

Gil allows a player to obtain more items faster.

This has always been the case.

[Cadsuane]

You should not post in this thread if:

a) You think the Christmas FFXI hyperinflation was caused by gilbuyers

It's actually reasonable to speculate that it was.

b) You don't know what hyperinflation means
c) You don't have an understanding of markets, supply and demand, or macroeconomics in general

The study of specific markets/supply and demand is typically studied in microeconomics, but anyway.

...The obvious culprit is Abyssea. Since all of the gear from Abyssea is essentially free these days, people are less likely to spend gil for gear and therefore probably have a lot more saved up. But I think there is more at work here. Abyssea contains almost no gil sinks. No chocobos, no warp NPCs that cost gil, no trips on airships. While 200 or 300g per microtransaction might seem trivial, the cumulative effect of all of those transactions is the removal of a large amount of gil from the economy. Since usage of those sinks has presumably gone down significantly, there is a lot more gil to go around.

There is also more gil being created. I NPC all sorts of shit from exp/cruor parties. And the removal of the level cap has led to a lot of people doing the original missions, which have big gil rewards. Finally, I have heard of people spending their cruor on gear which they turn around and NPC.

I'm not sure how SE is going to be able to fix this. Unless they have plans to introduce gil sinks to Abyssea (not sure how they'd do that), or make new content gil sinks, we're likely headed back to the days of paying 20k/stack for crystals.

Anybody else noticing this? And anyone else implementing any hedging strategies? I have been putting it off, but I might soon. I took a bath during the last inflation, and I don't want to have to deal with that shit again.

If light crystals cost 20k a stack (as I recall they hit 120k during rusty caps at one point on rag) that in itself doesn't constitute an increased real cost to players. The cost of inflation in XI, like in real life, isn't the reduced purchasing power of a currency which is trivial in itself, but other less obvious things like unstable prices (uniformly rising prices are no problem but uncertainty regarding future prices is a problem), shoeleather costs arising from unwillingness to hold currency for any length of time, losses to those who hold large currency reserves, and so on. Also in XI, like in real life, the costs of inflation tend to be higher for certain demographics since prices and incomes don't rise uniformly and end up fucking someone over. Most of this isn't a concern to a veteran player (or a rich person).

If you want to hedge, find an AH item that acts as a reliable store of value. A real inquiry into this subject would be to create a price index of some kind to track inflation, and to find a good whose price closely mirrors it, or better yet, reliably evaluates. Just find ways to not hold gil, which you should be doing anyway, unless there's deflation.

[warrior2582]

1) The biggest driving force at this time is demand. Everyone is leveling new jobs. This is why you see items such as scrolls go up in price.
2) Abyssea makes it easy to get gil. It is uncommon to make $30k+ per hour exping in the prior to abyssea.
3) Lack of crystals increases the prices of consumables. The increase of synthesis materials contributes to the lack of crystals. Easy gil from Abyssea contributes to the lack of crystals, since people just end up NPCing the the crystals. Trial weapons, low level exping, and FoV is just not enough to sustain the AH with crystals like it used to be. There is a whole lot more that contributes to crystal prices and price of consumables that it is just not worth going into.

[crux]

While there may be inflation slowly rising, it's unfounded that it's going to reach any severe rate any time soon, or if the fundamental nature of a virtual economy leads to any imperative reasons to stop inflation. The only people gravely injured through inflation are those that make their living off of NPCs. I am one of those people (a fisherman), so I do understand the plight, but in every other respect the population's purchasing power remains unaffected, or in some niche cases can even improve. In a real economy, inflation can cause goods to go up while salaries remain unaffected. In a MMO, every player is selling goods, so nearly every player is benefiting equally from that inflation. Cruor NPCing or fish NPCing may suffer, but in the majority of cases, it just means cheaper Echo Potions.

I also would like to counter, or at least question, the notion that the Christmas inflation wasn't caused, at least in part, by gil-buying. While it's true that gil-buying itself does not create money, it does release money into an economy. Did any of the exploits that had an affect on the amount of currency in the server coincide precisely with late Fall/early Winter? If not, we can speculate that an increased amount of players on holiday freed up a higher active population for exploits or that a higher active population drove up item prices through competition, but I'm still not sure that can account for the particular spike that happened during the Christmas season in question.

[TigeraTaru]

Two things:

1. Basic economics - Supply and Demand: If people want it and the supply is limited they will pay more for it. If people don't want it and supply is in surplus people won't pay gil for it.
As of right now people want seals / atmas so items cost more to obtain them - This is something that happens time and time again with updates as people always seem to want new shinies. (my self and most of BG included I would bet)

2. If your pick up parties are so poor and you have a crap ton of stones for abyssea, I would say take some friends and farm the more expensive pop items and just sell them. I personally spent maybe 3,900,000 buying pop items for my Gandiva to pop Alfard and have made that back plus more in less then 2 weeks with abyssea pop items and drops.