Fantasy Football 2011: Jumping the Gun

[Tyche]

Henne was playing decent. One of the most decisive factors in football is turnovers however, and Henne had one in, I think, 8 strait games. That's unacceptable. The problems this year was the defense took a huge step back after being one of the league's best just last year and the offensive line is fucking horrid. The second best receiver disappeared and Marshall has dropped 3 times as many TD passes as he's caught (and that's fact, not embellishment). There's a ton of problems, Henne being a small part, but unfortunately he'll have to go. Even if he played extremely well this entire season, Miami has to draft a QB in the first round. It's been, iirc, over 20 years since Miami last used a 1st round on a QB.

[Moss]

I think so too, only because Miami is going to have such a high pick, there are a few guys that could be franchise QBs from day one.

[Bregor]

You really wouldn't trade Thomas for Ryan? Even if he isn't elite he is still a very good QB who rarely misses games. There is a ton of value in having the same very good QB on your team for what I hope is at least a decade.

matt ryan just sucks

.

[Moss]

try to be serious for a second. it's kind of annoying when people throw in a troll in the middle of a serious discussion

[Tyche]

It's hard as hell to win a SB with a Matt Ryan type of QB. "Very good" QBs just don't really get it done. The average-above average QBs that do get it done do it with the best defense in the league. Last 10 years, the "non-elite" QBs to win the superbowls played on NYG, Pitt, TB when that defense was great, and Baltimore before that.

[Headspace]

try to be serious for a second. it's kind of annoying when people throw in a troll in the middle of a serious discussion

Just because it's not a paragraph of analysis doesn't change the fact that Matt Ryan sucks

[Demosthenes11]

I wouldn't want matt ryan on my team tbh. Without an elite defense, you won't go deep into the playoffs or have a real shot at a title. The last team to win a SB without a truly elite qb or defense is....I have no idea (early 90s giants? ). Falcons aren't anywhere near an elite defense, and ryan is nowhere near a top 5 qb. He's the kind of guy that plays well, but you are stuck with his mediocrity for years because his numbers are good, and not great. I think teams would be much better off if they kept trying to draft qbs until they got a damn good one instead of settling for an average one and then hoping for the best from the rest of the team. Rams are fucked now because of bradford - he's not BAD, but he isn't great, yet he will be their qb for years. Thankfully for the falcons, ryan is better than bradford, but not that much better

[Moss]

That is true. Personally I think he can be an elite QB with some better oline play. I also think a more aggressive offensive system would be nice but who knows how long it will be until we see that.

The main reason Ryan gets a bad rap is because he doesn't put up the shiny 300 yard 3 TD passing games because that isn't how the offense is designed.

[Tyche]

I agree completely. Pretty sure that as a GM, I'd use every first round pick on a top 5 QB out of college until I hit gold. A college QB factory in camp. Tom Brady or Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers are worth five first rounders if they win you just one championship.

[Bregor]

try to be serious for a second. it's kind of annoying when people throw in a troll in the middle of a serious discussion

In all seriousness, no I wouldn't. Patchwork offensive lines can cripple a franchise over a period of time. Not to say a bad QB can't, but I'd rather take my chances with a journeyman or game manager QB and keep that bookend tackle on the blindside. If I could flip Thomas for a QB, it would have to be a young guy I felt was capable of being in the top five very soon, which I just don't think Ryan is.

I do think you're right though, Ryan could win a Super Bowl in Atlanta with the talent around him. Especially considering Eli, Brad Johnson and fucking Trent Dilfer have won Super Bowls over the last eleven years.

[Demosthenes11]

The '07 giants will forever keep fans and GMs hopeful that their slightly above average team can win a SB if they just catch fire at the right time.

ravens and bucs were very different teams than the 07 giants.

[Moss]

I wouldn't want matt ryan on my team tbh. Without an elite defense, you won't go deep into the playoffs or have a real shot at a title. The last team to win a SB without a truly elite qb or defense is....I have no idea (early 90s giants? ). Falcons aren't anywhere near an elite defense, and ryan is nowhere near a top 5 qb. He's the kind of guy that plays well, but you are stuck with his mediocrity for years because his numbers are good, and not great. I think teams would be much better off if they kept trying to draft qbs until they got a damn good one instead of settling for an average one and then hoping for the best from the rest of the team. Rams are fucked now because of bradford - he's not BAD, but he isn't great, yet he will be their qb for years. Thankfully for the falcons, ryan is better than bradford, but not that much better

Armchair analysts like you and me have a tendency to think all QBs play in a vacuum. Every offensive system and its personnel are so different, it is really hard to judge QBs fairly at times. Matt Ryan is not mediocre, trust me on this. Probably 20 teams in this league would be much better off with him at QB. Sam Bradford might be better than Ryan, but the Rams offense aside from SJax is so atrocious that it is unfair to say he sucks now that he is struggling this year.

As for your "keep drafting QBs till you get a beast" point, it seems like wishful thinking to me. You make it sound like they are plentiful. All of those picks and $$ spent trying for the next Cam Newton are going to leave the rest of your roster weakened. Not to mention it takes at least 2 and more realistically 3-4 years to accurately judge if a QB is the real deal or not.

Keep the above-average QB, build around him, and use that time to see where he can take you.

[Cail]

to the rams comment, if they can keep lloyd after this year, they wont be terrible on offense (idk about their line). althoguh sjax is starting to get older

[Demosthenes11]

Is there a WAR stat for football? I'm pretty sure a rodgers/manning qb would have a WAR of 5-6 (yes, in football) compared to an all-pro safety or rb that are just as hit or miss as qbs that would have WARs of .5-1

Ya, I'd be drafting one qb a year almost. maybe one ever 2 years

[Moss]

In all seriousness, no I wouldn't. Patchwork offensive lines can cripple a franchise over a period of time. Not to say a bad QB can't, but I'd rather take my chances with a journeyman or game manager QB and keep that bookend tackle on the blindside. If I could flip Thomas for a QB, it would have to be a young guy I felt was capable of being in the top five very soon, which I just don't think Ryan is.

I do think you're right though, Ryan could win a Super Bowl in Atlanta with the talent around him. Especially considering Eli, Brad Johnson and fucking Trent Dilfer have won Super Bowls over the last eleven years.

We can agree to disagree then. To me it is a lot harder to find a franchise QB than a franchise LT, and they have a much greater impact on your team. Obviously Thomas is a beast and a very valuable player. But oline play comes down to how the unit plays cohesively more so than how good each individual part is.

[Moss]

Is there a WAR stat for football? I'm pretty sure a rodgers/manning qb would have a WAR of 5-6 (yes, in football) compared to an all-pro safety or rb that are just as hit or miss as qbs that would have WARs of .5-1

Ya, I'd be drafting one qb a year almost. maybe one ever 2 years

I agree.

This is my issue, as I stated earlier: It takes years to coach up a rookie QB and see what he can do. The Cam Newtons(and possibly Andrew Luck) are extremely rare and rely on you having the #1 overall pick. After them it is more of a crapshoot(this guy has a great arm but he is an idiot, this guy has moxy but a noodle for an arm, can he succeed with that, etc) and it is going to take time to accurately judge how good they are.

[Demosthenes11]

I agree.

This is my issue, as I stated earlier: It takes years to coach up a rookie QB and see what he can do. The Cam Newtons(and possibly Andrew Luck) are extremely rare and rely on you having the #1 overall pick. After them it is more of a crapshoot(this guy has a great arm but he is an idiot, this guy has moxy but a noodle for an arm, can he succeed with that, etc) and it is going to take time to accurately judge how good they are.

This is a fair argument and I don't really have a good rebuttal. I think if you get a good revolving door going with an offensive system you really believe in, you can give a guy 3 years, then put in the guy that was behind him for 2, try him for 2, rinse repeat. IE 2012 draft, take a qb. 2013 draft, take a qb but keep playing '12. if '12 guy isn't look great after 2014, put in '13 and draft a qb in '15. After '16, if 2013 guy sucks, play '15 and draft another etc etc.

[Bregor]

Wait is demo agreeing with Tyche's post on taking a QB with your top pick every year? Seriously?

[Moss]

I'm not going to check a bunch of draft histories but for the most part that seems like what teams do now(Panthers with Clausen and then Newton come to mind, also the Browns with Quinn and now Mccoy). The only difference is that you are suggesting use a 1st round pick on each of these QBs, correct? Then the issue is: are the big time QB prospects already gone by the back half of the first round? Are the QBs being drafted in the 2-4 rounds have just a good a chance as the late first round guy? And that's basically where we are now.

If your argument comes down to, "If you don't have an elite QB, and you have a chance to draft one, you do it every time." Then I agree.

[Headspace]

I agree.

This is my issue, as I stated earlier: It takes years to coach up a rookie QB and see what he can do. The Andy Daltons(and possibly Andrew Luck) are extremely rare and rely on you having the #1 overall pick.

I agree with this. But what about the Tom Bradys?