Then there's Chad Henne. By most statistical measures, Henne actually improved during his second season as a starter. His completion percentage rose. His touchdown pass percentage went up. His yards per attempt traveled north. The only notable measure in which he declined was on interceptions. Henne threw 19 interceptions on 490 attempts, meaning he threw picks on 3.9 percent of his passes. That's too high, but it's likely to come down. Since 1990, there have been 36 times when a quarterback threw 400 passes or more in consecutive seasons and had an interception rate between 3.6 percent and 4.2 percent in the first year, which is the range in which Henne's percentage falls. In the second season, those quarterbacks threw interceptions on 2.9 percent of their passes. At that 2.9 percent rate, Henne would throw just 14 interceptions on those 490 attempts if he took them again in 2011.
Furthermore, there's another reason to believe that Henne was unlucky in 2010. The
Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 notes that Henne had just one dropped interception last season. That was the lowest total in the league amongst quarterbacks with 400 attempts. For reference, his fellow starting quarterbacks in the AFC East averaged more than eight dropped picks each. Defenders will drop a few of Henne's would-be interceptions this year, which should help cut down on his pick rate.
If there's any obvious comparison to be made for Henne's early career path, it's Drew Brees. I know. Hear me out on this one. They're both undersized2 second-round picks from the Big Ten. They both sat out for most of their rookie season and then came in to play for most of their second year. Brees completed 60.8 percent of his passes. Henne completed 60.8 percent of his passes. Brees threw an interception on 3.0 percent of his passes and averaged 6.2 yards per attempt. Henne threw an interception on 3.1 percent of his passes and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt. In his third season, Brees tanked; in fact, to a much worse extent than Henne did. All of his numbers fell off, but what was particularly noticeable was his interception rate, which hit 4.2 percent. And unlike the Dolphins, the Chargers actually went through and pulled the trigger on replacing Brees by drafting Eli Manning and then trading him for Philip Rivers. There's no guarantee that Henne will follow that career path, but it's something to think about amidst wave after wave of hysterics about how Henne isn't an
NFL starter.