I leave for the weekend, the thread is here early, and Rhino and Leroy are still allowed to post? What is this I don't even
AFC East: Jets
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Texans
AFC West: Chargers
Wild Cards: Patriots, Steelers
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Saints
NFC West: Rams
Wild Cards: Buccaneers, Bears
Coach of the Year: Raheem Morris, Buccaneers
Comeback POY: Plaxico Burress, Jets
Defensive ROY: Patrick Peterson, Cardinals
Offensive ROY: Lance Kendricks, Rams
Defensive POY: Ndamukong Suh, Lions
Offensive POY: (tie) Tom Brady, Patriots; Ray Rice, Ravens
MVP: Tom Brady, Patriots
AFC Championship: Jets over Chargers
NFC Championship: Buccaneers over Eagles
Super Bowl: Jets over Buccaneers
THU, SEP 8
New Orleans at Green Bay (-4) - Ed Werder and his magical mustache told me last night that while Drew Brees spent his own time and money organizing team workouts for the Saints over the summer, the Packers never practiced during the lockout. As a believer in the virtues of hard work and perseverance, and also that Brees's 22 picks last year was a fluke, I think New Orleans comes out firing. Saints upset the Pack in a shootout.
SUN, SEP 11
Atlanta at
Chicago (+3) - Bears? Dogs at home? It's more likely than you think. In the opinion of the odds makers, as well as most of BG, Chicago is just not an elite team. I beg to differ. They paced the NFC last year by allowing just 90.1 yards on the ground per game, and were 4th in the conference in interceptions. In all the hype surrounding Julio Jones, Atlanta is still a ball control team, so I expect they'll try to feed Mike Turner. It won't work out too well. Chicago in a close, low-scoring affair.
Cincinnati at
Cleveland (-6.5) -
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Browns win, Bengals cover.
Buffalo at
Kansas City (-5.5) - This line has me confused. Either Vegas likes Buffalo a little more than they should, or they're a bit too pessimistic on the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Even if he can't go, it's not like Cassel is Peyton Manning or anything. (Too bad Brodie Croyle is gone, amirite?) Last season Buffalo gave up a league-worst 169.6 yards per game on the ground, so start both Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones with confidence, fantasy gurus. Chiefs win and cover.
Philadelphia at St. Louis (+5) - How badly do I want the Rams to win this game? It's not like I hate Philly's players or fans or anything, but the lulz would be astronomical. Welcome to Miami Heat territory, Eagles. I really like a healthy Sam Bradford, and think it might take a while for Philly's defense to gel, so the Rams should score some points. But with all the usual suspects back on offense and the addition of non-Panthers Steve Smith, so will Vick and company. I'll take the Eagles to win, Rams to cover.
Detroit at
Tampa Bay (-1.5) - This is a tough one, because these are two teams I really expect to take a big step forward this season. If it weren't for bad luck, Detroit would have no luck at all. Losing Mikel LeShoure for the season really puts the pressure on Stafford and Best to stay healthy and produce this season. But Tampa might have the best young triplets in the NFC with Freeman, Blount and Williams. I expect a full season of Blount as the feature back to make life a whole lot easier for Freeman, resulting in low interception totals, dropped or otherwise. I'll take Tampa at home.
Tennessee at Jacksonville (-3) - Ah, the 3-point-favorite-at-home-trap-game. How I've missed you. The Titans, by virtue of playing tough football, outscored their opponents last year but finished 6-10. Jacksonville was outscored on the season by 66 points but still finished 8-8. Who was actually better? I think with Chris Johnson's holdout behind them and something left in Matt Hasselbeck's tank, Tennessee could surprise some people this year. The Jags seem to have question marks at every skill position, and I think you'll see MoJoDrew start to fade into latter-day Fred Taylor territory. Titans win on the road.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2.5) - Because there are so many good defenses and defensive players in the league, it's sometimes easy to forget just how consistently great the Steelers have been. Last year was more of the same; fewest points, rushing yards, yards per carry and rushing TDs allowed, 1st in sacks, and tied for 5th in interceptions. Baltimore will eventually turn it on offensively this year, but not this week. Pittsburgh wins going away.
Indianapolis at
Houston (-8.5) -
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Texans win and cover.
NY Giants at Washington (+3) - Rehn Grossbeck better hope that Tim Hightower carries his excellent preseason into the real deal, or else there's gonna be a lot of pressure on the passing game to move the chains against a Subway-fed Giants front four. Either way, I don't think the 'Skins have what it takes to stop Bradshaw and Jacobs. Washington tried Gibbs version 2.0, they tried Shanahan, maybe they'll go after Bill Cowher or Zombie Bill Walsh in 20 or 30 years. Giants win and cover.
Seattle at San Francisco (-5) - As terrible as this seems, considering a 7-9 Seahawks team won the division last season, this is a big game. With some big names and high draft picks along the offensive line, I think the expectation is that Seattle can do a little more on offense this year. It will be a full season of Marshawn Lynch more so than Tavaris Jackson that drives this team down the field. San Fran still has the talent to put it together, and Vernon Davis is still one of my favorite players, but I think it will be another long and fruitless season by the Bay. Seattle in the upset...?
Minnesota at
San Diego (-8.5) - It only seems like every year San Diego starts the season with a losing record by choking away some winnable games, when actually it's... every year. But they should have a better idea of how they want to use Mathews and Tolbert, and with all the receivers happy and Gates on the mend, this should be a very potent offense. To me it seems like Minnesota's just hoping they creep back into playoff contention before totally blowing up their roster, but they're another year older and I don't see McNabb pulling them out of the NFC North basement. That said, APete is still just a monster. Chargers win, Vikings cover.
Carolina at
Arizona (-7) - How bad is Carolina that they're a 7-point dog to the Goddamn Cardinals? And how bad is Jimmy Clausen that he's third on the depth chart after being the Cats' top pick last year? I'm not sold on the Kolb-Beanie Wells backfield just yet, but if Heap can regain some of his old form, there's a lot of nice targets in the passing game. Arizona's defense at home will be good enough to bottle up what Carolina calls an offense. Cardinals win and cover.
Dallas at
NY Jets (-4.5) - The battle of the over-hyped? I just watched the ten-year retrospective of Hard Knocks on HBO, and you'd think they were the only teams they covered in the series. (Special guest appearances by Ochocinco and Herm Edwards.) I think the Cowboys are heading in the right direction (for once) but have they done enough on defense to get back into contention? They allowed 27.3 points per game last year; only Denver was worse. Yes, I know Rob Ryan is there now, but it's not like his resumé as Oakland and Cleveland's DC was sparkling. The Jets have once again placed Super Bowl-or-bust expectations on themselves, which didn't work out well for them when they opened last season in prime time. Either Sanchez or Greene really needs to take the reins this year. I think the Cowboys offense clicks in this game, but the Jets take advantage of too many miscues, and win at home. Dallas covers.
MON, SEP 12
New England at Miami (+7) - I think I picked Miami to cover at home against New England last season, thinking divisional rivals usually play close, hard-fought games. Then the Pats defense outscored Miami all by themselves en route to a 41-14 shellacking. That said, this isn't the same Pats team. If I had to pick one of New England's gambles to pay off this season, it'd be Ochocinco. And while Brady doesn't need top-tier receivers to be successful, a healthy Welker and a productive, focused Ochocinco could be lethal. What I don't like about New England, oddly enough, is their defense. They're hoping a lot of other teams' castoffs can contribute in their switch to the 43. What can I say about the Dolphins that Tyche hasn't already admitted? Until Henne proves he can win, I'm not buying it. The good news is their offensive line should be solid, even if Reggie Bush enjoys watching them from the sidelines and Daniel Thomas needs GPS to find the holes. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, eh, fuck it, it's not like I'm cashing out my online sports book any time soon. Pats win, Fish cover.
Oakland at Denver (-3) - Well this is a fantastic late game to keep America interestezzzzzzzzzzz... Denver was really bad last season, like the type of badness usually reserved for the Bungles or teams with Jake Delhomme on the roster. Oakland scratched and clawed their way to 8-8 last year, outscored their opponents by 39 points on the season, and plenty of people around the league think McFadden is ready to take the next step towards superstardom. It will be interesting to see how the defense fares after losing Asomugha, but I'm expecting a big step up from Rolando McClain. Outside of settling on the right quarterback and drafting Von Miller, what has Denver done to get better? Not a whole lot. Oakland wins on the road.