Patriots (+4) over RAIDERS
I get it. You want to pick the Raiders. It's a fun pick. You want to think Richard Seymour is going to be fired up, that Darren McFadden is going to run amok, that Jason Campbell is going to complete a couple of bombs, that the fans will carry them the rest of the way. Just remember three things …
1. The Pats lost last week. Their record after losses in the Belichick/Brady era is something like 950-2.
2. The Raiders are coming off a "We did it!" game. Never a good sign.
3. Oakland's secondary is in shambles post-Nmamdi — it's banged up and wasn't even good to begin with. The Raiders gave up 937 passing yards and 6 passing TD's to Kyle Orton, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mark Sanchez. Brady has thrown for 1,327 yards and 11 TD's already. Unless it's one of those "everything went wrong" games (like what happened in Buffalo last week), the Pats should move up and downfield at will. So if you're picking Oakland, you're saying that (A) the Raiders are going to score 35+ points, or (B) for the second straight week, the Pats' offense is going to have an "everything went wrong" game. Believe me, those four points look enticing. I know. I thought about it. And then, I kept thinking about the Pats leading 34-10 in the third quarter and CBS throwing up one of those "BRADY: 30-32, 345 yards, 4 TD's" graphics. He's just done it too many times. This is a stay away game if anything.