If you're predicting and it turns out it was a faint, just don't hit the buttons. Don't commit yourself to the ultra when you dash. Decent players throw a faint here and there i.e. ryu's st.lk to throw you off. I do the ultra when I see the fireball or hear ha... that's true for most shotos, but Gouken's and Sagat's are way too fast.
For the latter, are you referring to this @ the 1:55 mark:
It seems to be very specific against the 3 shotos after a blocked c.hk.
Meh, timestamps don't work.
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