When I saw the speculation, the first thing I did was send Elmer a private message. He could not find a copy of the particular book in the stores near him, but he did provide me with the original JP Wiki link. (And it is not working for me either.) He did translate much of the page for me, and told me about a few tests that were done by anonymous posters on JP boards. The tests indicated that the failure rate would drop to 0.5%-2% on crafts with no sub skills.
If someone could find a scan of the book, we could ask Elmer to scan it, but I am not sure where one could find it.
Also, there is an archive of the page
here, and a Google translation
here.