2011 MLB Offseason Discussion - Rangers choking edition

[Demosthenes11]

2011 MLB Offseason Discussion - BILLS

oh my god yes please

[Demosthenes11]

we need a leadoff hitter like nobody's business.

Reyes is too expensive, rollins probably just right. Let him go PHI

[Man0warr]

No to Fielder. Yes to letting CJ walk. No to converting Feliz to a starter. No to Mike Adams becoming the closer.

Feliz is a 1 trick pony. He has 2 pitches. A fastball and a change up. His location/command aren't good enough to go more than 2 innings.

Javier Vazquez, Hiroki Kuroda, and/or Yu Darvish.

Feliz uses his fast ball and breaking ball for closing, but he also has a good changeup he's shown in the minor leagues. He's also shown he can keep his velocity up for 7-8 innings there. Listening to Jon Daniels on the radio this week they are definitely going to try to force Feliz into the starting role if they lose CJ. If you have a guy with that arm you have to at least try to front end him. Ogando also only has 2 pitches and he was a pretty good starter until the All-star break.

Rangers are pushing hard for Darvish.

[Valisk]

Still not sold on Feliz.

The $100M+ that's going to come (go) with Darvish is going to be heartbreaking. So lame that you have to pay for negotiating rights on top of a big year contract. I hope we don't over pursue. I wouldn't mind, Javier Vazquez, Roy Oswalt, or Hiro Kuroda. Someone that doesn't come with a $45M+ finders fee.

[Demosthenes11]

Ogando pitching so many inning in the beginning of the year fucked him for the rest of the year. Dude was so inconsistent, it was pretty obvious it was from over-pitching. You move feliz to a starting position and he'll do the same thing, making you make more difficult bullpen decisions later on in the year.

I'd rather have some 10-8 pitcher that goes all year rather than someone that starts 8-1 and then you can't count on the rest of the year or have to keep changing his role.

[Man0warr]

Ogando had even less time spent pitching than Feliz. Dude was untouchable in the Detroit series and the first half of the season, he basically lost 2 games for the Rangers in the WS though - Washington kept putting him in every night even though he never showed command.

[Demosthenes11]

That's exactly what I'm saying. When a dude goes from brilliant to terrible in the span of a week, the manager has to make difficult as fuck decisions because he can't count on you. When you become inconsistent, you become a liability.

Lack of command is the biggest tell of arm fatigue. I'm really not a fan of turning relievers into starters at all.

[Man0warr]

It's kind of up to the pitcher. You have to commit to changing your routine and workout habits.

CJ Wilson was able to do it because that was his goal, I really don't think Feliz wants to be a starter, and generally just looks lazy.

[pohibaba]

Carlos Beltran is leaving Scott Boras for Dan Lozano. He's also only looking for a 3-year deal rather than the 4 or 5 year deal people had assumed he'd shoot for. These are hopefully good signs for the Giants.

[Weeks]

I can see Theo wanting to make a splash in Chicago, but would be shocked if he went for Pujols.

Pujols is going to be 32 on opening day, and is probably going to want something absurd like 7 years / $200M... As great a hitter as he is, his numbers were down across the board this year... OPS was down almost 100 points... he had career worsts in pretty much every offensive category...

He'll probably rebound next year, but he will start to decline well before his probable 7 year contract is over.

I actually think Theo makes a push for Prince Fielder, who is just entering his prime years (27-31, by Theo's definition), whereas Pujols is leaving those years.

If Pujols declines steadily for about five years at the expected rate, he'll finally reach the level that Fielder is going to uphold for the next 3 or 4 years.

[Cephius]

http://bit.ly/rrDb1k

[pohibaba]

^

ST. LOUIS -- Behind the sheet of plastic that covered Nelson Cruz's locker, the ball was still wedged into his glove -- the same ball that he caught to end Game 6 of the World Series, and to turn the Texas Rangers into champions for the first time. Cruz had held the ball aloft in his bare hand as ran in from right field, intending to join his teammates in their celebration, but instead, they had taken the celebration out to him -- Josh Hamilton crashing into him from the side, to form the bottom of the dogpile, and Michael Young and Ian Kinsler and Mike Napoli and Adrian Beltre jumping onto the top.

Cruz clutched the baseball -- the World Series-winning baseball -- the whole time, underneath the pile, and then he had stuffed it into his back pocket and pulled on the T-shirts and caps that had been dispensed to the Texas players while the victory stage was set up. Usually, the closer gets the ball on the final out, but Neftali Feliz is 23 years old and Cruz is 31 years old, and so normal protocol is out the door.

Because really, it doesn't matter whether Cruz or Feliz keeps the ball stored safely; it belongs to all of them. It belongs to Ron Washington, their relentlessly optimistic manager, who had found himself praying for the final out. To Jon Daniels, the general manager who learned from his first mistakes to build an organization that is viewed as a developing dynasty by other teams. To Young, who buried his angry feelings toward Daniels in spring training and went about the business of trying to win. To Beltre, who had wanted to sign with the Boston Red Sox and then the Los Angeles Angels, and instead found a group of teammates as devoted to winning as he is. To C.J. Wilson, in what will probably be his last year with the Rangers. To Alexi Ogando, who is now celebrated in a country that wouldn't give him a visa just a few years ago.

Washington, his eyes red from the spray of ginger ale and the salt of tears, walked to Cruz's locker and asked to see the baseball, and the right fielder reached behind the plastic and pulled it out. Washington held it for a second, considering how different it seemed like any other baseball he had seen. He shook his head and laughed. "The way you were going back on that," he said to Cruz, "I thought it might get over your head. You about gave me a heart attack."

With that, the two grown men embraced in a bear hug.

In a parallel universe, anyway.

[Bregor]

Pujols going to the cubbies.

Don't you toy with my emotions you monster.

[Francisco]

If Pujols declines steadily for about five years at the expected rate, he'll finally reach the level that Fielder is going to uphold for the next 3 or 4 years.

I guess I agree, depending on what your expected decline rate is...

Thing is, Fielder might get something like 5 years / $90mil (low-ball) up to 5 years / $110M... I think anything beyond that (in either years or dollars) would be absurd for a player like Fielder. I expect him to get $19M-$20M a year... and Pujols will probably get $8M-10M a year more than him, and a longer contract.

If you can get Pujols for 5/$125M~$140M or so, then you do it... I might give him a 6th year, but definitely not a 7th and 8th for $25-30M/year...

Honestly, if I'm Theo, I look down the road and try to hold off on the big-time 1B guys, and see if one is hitting free agency in 2-4 years. Signing Pujols or Fielder right now isn't going to make them become 90-95 game winners... and it's just going to cost them a draft pick they desperately need.

The Cubs are a pretty horrendous team right now... get the pieces in place first, then add the big final pieces. Why pay $20M-30M/year for a first baseman when you might be competitive in the final two years of his contract?

Right now the Cubs need more guys like Starlin Castro, and to turn guys like Dempster, Zambrano and Ramirez into draft compensation. Signing Pujols or Fielder now is buying the horse before building the cart.

[Bregor]

Right now the Cubs need more guys like Starlin Castro, and to turn guys like Dempster, Zambrano and Ramirez into draft compensation. Signing Pujols or Fielder now is buying the horse before building the cart.

Sort of agree with this. If they kept Starlin and Garza and sold low on the rest of the team, they'd suck for another year or two but at least guys like Colvin, Jackson, Cashner, etc. will get the experience.

That said, I still think Pujols is a sound investment for the next 4-6 years, he's a historic talent and can be part of the next winner on any team. Anything more than 3 years for Fielder is too much IMO.

[Francisco]

I wouldn't sell low on everyone - yet, at least...

Dempster and Zambrano were horrendous last year (4.80 and 4.82 ERA in the NL is trash), but both have upside. You're not moving either of them unless you eat a chunk of the contract. Hang on to them until mid-season and hope they've rebounded. If they do, try to move them to a contender for prospects. If no good offers, you can let them walk as free agents and get compensation picks. These two guys are making $32M combined next season.

Alfonso Soriano is another problem... $18M/year for his age 36, 37 and 38 seasons... he's in decline, hasn't had a "good" season since 2008, and hasn't even been close to his contract year (2006) at all during his horrid contract. I doubt he can be moved, but if the Cubs can make him go away by paying ~half of the $54M he's owed they should do it in a heart beat. Even then, I don't even think any team would take him, even for $5M per year for the next three seasons. I figure he's stuck with the Cubs til his contract runs out... unless they can trade him for a Lackey-esque disaster. And as a Red Sox fan, I'd take my chances with Lackey before Soriano.

Aramis Ramirez is an interesting subject. There's a club option on him for $16M, and a $2M buyout if the option is declined. The Cubs might be able to snatch up an extra draft pick here - but it seems a little complicated. If they decline Ramirez's option, they need to offer him arbitration to get a draft pick. If he accepts arbitration, they're stuck with him for a minimum of $13.68M (can't offer less than 80% of the $14.6M he got this season... this includes the $2M buyout, which I assume they'd still have to pay). He could wind up costing more, if he accepts and wins his arbitration hearing). The upside is, if he declines arbitration (would he? I don't know, seems like a tough call for him...) - the Cubs would get a supplemental pick at the end of the first round. I wouldn't bank on picking up his option and trading him though... he might be a tough move at $16M. Ramirez would be a Type-B free agent.

Carlos Pena is another Type-B guy. I wouldn't sign him to a multi-year deal... I'd just offer him arbitration and hope he declines. If he doesn't, you wind up getting him on a one year deal for ~$10-12M, which isn't terrible. If he declines, draft compensation.

Garza is going to be a bargain until he hits free agency, so he's worth keeping around - he's also one guy you can probably sell high on right now. Remember when the Marlins traded Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell (salary dump) to the Red Sox for Hanley Ramirez? The Cubs might be able to do something similar and bring in a super prospect... maybe even do the unthinkable and dump Soriano in the process.

Marlon Byrd might be moveable... he's making $6.5M next season. He'd open up a slot for Brett Jackson/younger guys. He won't bring in anything valuable, but he's a salary dump.

Carlos Marmol would probably bring in some decent prospects right now. Maybe something a little better if he starts off 2012 really well, since he struggled a bit this year.

That's pretty much my take on the Cubs... Those guys account for the vast majority of their payroll, and none of them are going to get a ring as a Cub on their current contracts. All of them have potential to yield something of value, except for Soriano, basically.

I'd lay low on the free agents this year, and even next year... let the team develop a bit before you go putting the final pieces into place.

Few guys hitting free agency after next season who might be good value for the Cubs... maybe low cost, high upside for them...

Delmon Young, BJ Upton, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Francisco Liriano, Jeremy Guthrie, Brandon McCarthy...

Some really good things can happen if you can get the right guys on one year deals.

[Francisco]

Gold Glove winners announced, three Red Sox, three Dodgers.

P -- Mark Buehrle, CHW
C -- Matt Wieters, BAL
1B -- Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
2B -- Dustin Pedroia, BOS
SS -- Erick Aybar, LAA
3B -- Adrian Beltre, TEX
LF -- Alex Gordon, KC
CF -- Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
RF -- Nick Markakis, BAL

P -- Clayton Kershaw, LAD
C -- Yadier Molina, STL
1B -- Joey Votto, CIN
2B -- Brandon Phillips, CIN
SS -- Troy Tulowitzki, COL
3B -- Placido Polanco, PHI
LF -- Gerardo Parra, ARI
CF -- Matt Kemp, LAD
RF -- Andre Ethier, LAD

[Bregor]

Cubs stuff

My problem with Big Z is more his antics than his stuff. He's a fine #3-type pitcher who can eat innings, but he's gone full 'tard in the dugout one too many times. And if Theo learned anything from the '11 Sox, it's that you need to maintain control over a clubhouse. Get him out of there ASAP.

Dempster will rebound just fine I think, his FIP wasn't terrible. I just don't see him being a part of the next contender. Same with Aramis. Two guys I like and are going to be productive in 2012, but might as well get what you can for them. Obviously if no deals are there to be made, keep them until June and hope a need arises on the market.

Alfonso Soriano should die of gonorrhea and rot in Hell.

Pena was a one year rental, methinks. I agree that they should make him an offer since if he turns it down, they get a pick. And if not, well there's not exactly a top 1B prospect in the pipeline.

The other movable pieces (Byrd, Baker, Soto, bullpen arms) I could take them or leave them. Soto seems to have gone from rising star to fizzled out pretty damn quick.

Also, lol at listing Dice-K, I wouldn't touch him with 10-foot chopsticks.

[Francisco]

Dice-K actually has a lot of upside. He'd probably do quite well in the NL, and for short money.

He might windup back in Japan though.

[Olo401]

The BoSox just keep the madness going.. Grady Sizemore as a replacement for J.D. Drew?