2011 MLB Offseason Discussion - Rangers choking edition

[Francisco]

Sure it's all in THEO. Its not like he had someone named Larry luccino looking over his shoulder constantly meddling and butting heads with THEO.

When the redsox have a resurgent year next year with big contributions from Crawford which I think they are you gonna give the bulk if the credit to guy that deserves it or are we gonna pretend this would be all cherringtons doing?

Even if Crawford returns to his 2010 form, he's still massively overpayed.

[Rhinox]

That's the nature of free agency. You really believe players are paid what they're worth?

[Francisco]

It's actually pretty funny, if you look at the highest paid players - most of them are horrible deals...

Alex Rodriguez - $32M, lol
Vernon Wells - $26.2M, what the shit?
CC Sabathia - $24.3M, not bad - but I bet I could name at least 10 pitchers I'd take over him
Mark Teixeira - $23.1M, power's there, but I'd call him a disappointment these past two seasons
Joe Mauer - $23M, breaking down - I doubt he'll repeat anything close to his MVP season again
Johan Santana - $21.6M, injuries, injuries, injuries... who knows...
Todd Helton - $20.3M, he's basically a 2nd tier DH now... on a NL team.
Miguel Cabrera - $20M, amazing hitter still, won't complain... but he's either gonna be a $20M DH or a really bad defensive 3B...
Roy Halladay - $20M, might be the one "under pay" on the list.
Ryan Howard - $20M, I think everyone hates this contract
Carlos Beltran - $19.3M, was pretty much injured half his last contract
Carlos Lee - $19M, had a shitty season last year, and he's getting old
Alfonso Soriano - $19M, for a sub-.300 OBP, lol
Carlos Zambrano - $18.9M, to be a cancer, suck and get suspended
Torii Hunter - $18.5M, not sure how good or bad he's been, but I'm pretty sure it's not worth $18.5M
Barry Zito - $18.5M, I just shit my pants - because I wanted to know what it felt like to be Barry Zito
Jason Bay - $18.1M, has been awful since leaving the Red Sox
Ichiro Suzuki - $18M, in the grand scheme of things, it was a great contract - but right now it's looking pretty lousy going forward
Josh Beckett - $17M, earns his money, every other year - except in September
AJ Burnett - $16.5M, the John Lackey of the New York Yankees

Toss in Crawford and Lackey as awful signings as well, also JD Drew (none of these players were on the top 20 paid players for 2011, which is the list I used)

Most of these aren't even simple over pays - they're just shitty players earning big bucks.

As for pitchers I would take over Sabathia... off the top of my head... Kershaw, Verlander, Halladay, Weaver, Lee, Cain, Hernandez, Bumgarner, Price, Lester, Lincecum - and if healthy, Strausburg. At the end of this season, Pineda, Darvish and Moore could also be on that list.

[Francisco]

That's the nature of free agency. You really believe players are paid what they're worth?

No, as outlined in my above post - but there's a difference between overpaying and just blindly throwing money to the wind as you bid against yourself... which Theo had a knack for doing...

[archibaldcrane]

Madison Bumgardner over CC Sabathia? For realz?

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[Francisco]

Madison Bumgardner over CC Sabathia? For realz?

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Both are very good, but one is 9 years younger and about 70 pounds lighter... Bumgarner has comparable numbers to Sabathia so far - and is better in some important areas, like K/BB and BB/9...

Sabathia, while very good, has never impressed me honestly. Granted, I've only seen him pitch against the Red Sox, but every time, we've just jumped all over his stuff. The last few times we've faced him, he's pretty much gotten shelled.

Looking back on his game logs, he's typically been mediocre against the good teams, and dominant against the bad ones...

I guess in the case of Sabathia v. Bumgarner - if we're talking for 2012 only, I'd take Sabathia. If we're talking for the next 5 years or so (guessing the approximate time left on his contract - and the approximate time left that the Giants control Bumgarner before he becomes a free agent), I'd take Bumgarner hands down.

[Cephius]

Both are very good, but one is 9 years younger and about 70 pounds lighter... Bumgarner has comparable numbers to Sabathia so far - and is better in some important areas, like K/BB and BB/9...

Sabathia, while very good, has never impressed me honestly. Granted, I've only seen him pitch against the Red Sox, but every time, we've just jumped all over his stuff. The last few times we've faced him, he's pretty much gotten shelled.

Looking back on his game logs, he's typically been mediocre against the good teams, and dominant against the bad ones...

I guess in the case of Sabathia v. Bumgarner - if we're talking for 2012 only, I'd take Sabathia. If we're talking for the next 5 years or so (guessing the approximate time left on his contract - and the approximate time left that the Giants control Bumgarner before he becomes a free agent), I'd take Bumgarner hands down.

I was going to reply with stats that would make everything you say seem absolutely stupid but I figure it'd just be a waste of time if you honestly believe anything you wrote here

[Bregor]

I've only seen him pitch against the Red Sox

http://img356.imageshack.us/img356/1719/47801631gx5.png

[Cephius]

Hey guys, GMs pay great players tons of money and hope they win a few championships before the guy breaks down and Francisco IS ON IT

[Conrad]

You could talk me into Cole Hamels over CC, too.

[Moss]

Taco > CC

[Francisco]

You could talk me into Cole Hamels over CC, too.

Perhaps, it's close.

As for CC vs Bumgarner...

                 CCS          MBG
ERA              3.00        3.21
WHIP             1.23        1.21
HR/9             0.6          0.5
K/9              8.72        8.40
BB/9             2.31        2.02
SLG             .361        .366
OBP             .305         .304
AVG             .255        .260

CC is 31 and weighs ~290, Bumgarner is 22 and weighs ~225. Why the outrage?

[Cephius]

Perhaps, it's close.

As for CC vs Bumgarner...

                 CCS          MBG
ERA              3.00        3.21
WHIP             1.23        1.21
HR/9             0.6          0.5
K/9              8.72        8.40
BB/9             2.31        2.02
SLG             .361        .366
OBP             .305         .304
AVG             .255        .260

CC is 31 and weighs ~290, Bumgarner is 22 and weighs ~225. Why the outrage?

Because one pitches in a huge fucking park in the NL West and the other in a tiny park in the AL east you simpleton. Also what the fuck does weight have to do with anything?

[Francisco]

Hey guys, GMs pay great players tons of money and hope they win a few championships before the guy breaks down and Francisco IS ON IT

Which of the contracts I listed were smart moves the moment on the day they were signed, without any hindsight?

My answer is: Sabathia, Teixeira, Santana, Cabrera, Halladay, and Ichiro.

What's yours?

Alternately, how many of those signings would you say either a) suddenly made the team a contender, or b) improved an already good/contending team?

[Cephius]

Also Sabathia ERA+ : 147. Bumgarner: 111. It wasn't even particularly close last year. If you want to say Bumgarner is better in terms of age and his contract that's fine, but you also have to acknowledge that CC has been a beast and teams will always pay a premium for #1 starters.

Look at Zito's stats before he signed the contract. He fell off a cliff, unless you had a crystal ball you would have wanted your team to sign him too. Same goes for Mauer, Beltran, Bay and Hunter. And really, you think Josh Beckett had a bad contract? Look at what he's given the Red Sox for a team-friendly deal.

[Francisco]

Because one pitches in a huge fucking park in the NL West and the other in a tiny park in the AL east you simpleton. Also what the fuck does weight have to do with anything?

Although it hasn't proven an issue yet, I'd be a bit concerned about injuries to a guy pushing 300 lbs. Mostly to his legs, from his pitching motion.

Would it make you feel better if I said "I'd rather face CC Sabathia than Madison Bumgarner in a must win game" instead?

[Moss]

Would it make you feel better if I said "I'd rather face CC Sabathia than Madison Bumgarner in a must win game" instead?

Come on now.

[Cephius]

Although it hasn't proven an issue yet, I'd be a bit concerned about injuries to a guy pushing 300 lbs. Mostly to his legs, from his pitching motion.

Would it make you feel better if I said "I'd rather face CC Sabathia than Madison Bumgarner in a must win game" instead?

1) CC has thrown over 2300 major league innings, he's had two minor knee surgeries and followed both up with excellent seasons. He's healthier than most pitchers, not having a single issue with his arm or shoulder. In fact, Bumgarner had a sore elbow just last year that lead to an unexplained drop in velocity. He already has a more disturbing injury history than Sabathia if you're so keen on comparing the two.

2) lol at that last sentence

[Francisco]

Look at Zito's stats before he signed the contract. He fell off a cliff, unless you had a crystal ball you would have wanted your team to sign him too. Same goes for Mauer, Beltran, Bay and Hunter. And really, you think Josh Beckett had a bad contract? Look at what he's given the Red Sox for a team-friendly deal.

Barry Zito started slipping pretty noticeably before he signed that deal. He was still a good pitcher, but not worth his contract. Take a look at his WHIP right before getting his contract. He didn't really fall of a cliff, he was already declining.

Mauer had one phenomenal year (2009), and a bunch of very, very good ones. Great player, and I'd love to have him. I do think the Twins paid too much for him, and it's exacerbated by the fact that he plays the position with the highest injury risk. Mauer for $23M is perfectly fine if you're the Yankees, but if you're the Twins, that's putting a bit too many of your eggs in one basket. That's just my opinion though.

Beltran, I guess... but any free agent the Mets sign, even their own, is going to be a disaster by default.

Torii Hunter has had a few good seasons, but nothing that warrants his contract, unless you value gold gloves that much. Very good player when he signed that contract, but nothing special.

Jason Bay, another Mets signing... when he signed with the Mets, a lot of people were skeptical of how'd he hit in CitiField. They were right to be skeptical.

As for Josh Beckett - I'm on the fence; and it really depends on when you want my opinion from.

Beer and chicken aside, Beckett earned his $17M this season, and hopefully he'll earn it next season too. His contract is fairly new... 2010 was the first full season of it... and 2010 was a disaster. There's a whole "odd year/even year Beckett" meme out there, in which he's a very good to elite pitcher in odd number years (ERAs of 1.50, 3.04, 3.38, 3.27, 3.86, 2.89), and medicore to bad in even numbered years (ERAs of 4.10, 3.79, 5.01, 4.03, 5.78 )... it's a pretty weird pattern. If Beckett gives us what he gave us in 2007, 2009 and 2011 for his $17M, I'll be thrilled... if it's more from 2006 and 2010 - it's pretty bad.

[Francisco]

1) CC has thrown over 2300 major league innings, he's had two minor knee surgeries and followed both up with excellent seasons. He's healthier than most pitchers, not having a single issue with his arm or shoulder. In fact, Bumgarner had a sore elbow just last year that lead to an unexplained drop in velocity. He already has a more disturbing injury history than Sabathia if you're so keen on comparing the two.

I wasn't aware of the issue with his elbow - but the Sabathia weight/knee thing is something that will continue to wear also... it could amount to nothing, it could be a sudden, severe injury.

2) lol at that last sentence

Why, at least when it's coming from the point of view of a Red Sox fan? This team, as built, has had no issue dealing with Sabathia at all. Sabathia has also come up small in most of his playoff appearances, including one where he totally melted down at Fenway Park.