NFL Week 10 - Tyven's Betting Advice Thread

[Azull]

They converted on x and 1 a few times already with the run. The Saints run def sucks. A punt would have put the balls into the hands of Brees who, rumor has it, is a pretty good QB.

[Bregor]

why the fuck do I keep hearing mike smith's retarded ass decision was statistically the right call? I keep seeing shit like "If they made it, they were 57% favorites to win, and if they punted, they only had a 42% chance to win"

THIS IS NOT THE CORRECT WAY TO LOOK AT PROBABILITYLJSFKJFKDSFKSDLJF

All I know is that there is a 0% chance the Falcons won that game. WRONG DECISION MIKE

[tyven]

WHERE THE FUCK IS WEEK 11 THREAD?

[Bregor]

WHERE THE FUCK IS WEEK 11 THREAD?

I'm just waiting for Rhinox to mak-

oh-

http://jumalauta.info/kuvaboxi/album...veBeenShed.jpg

[tyven]

I feel really bad for tyche so im going to give him till 9pmest to make it. if he doesnt i am going to make one in the spirit of rhinox

unless i dont because i forget or am playing the vidya

[Headspace]

Throwing hand or no?

Pimp hand

[Conrad]

why the fuck do I keep hearing mike smith's retarded ass decision was statistically the right call? I keep seeing shit like "If they made it, they were 57% favorites to win, and if they punted, they only had a 42% chance to win"

THIS IS NOT THE CORRECT WAY TO LOOK AT PROBABILITYLJSFKJFKDSFKSDLJF

They do this in baseball literally all the time with probability graphs

[Demosthenes11]

They converted on x and 1 a few times already with the run. The Saints run def sucks. A punt would have put the balls into the hands of Brees who, rumor has it, is a pretty good QB.

The point being, they leave out so many variables and different things, the most important of which is: You don't get the 1 yard and you lose 95% of the time. This is what matters. And the probabilities mentioned were just basically "who has the ball in OT" as that team will always be favored by ~20% more. It's a load of shit.

They do this in baseball literally all the time with probability graphs

baseball is much, much, much more predictable than football. It's 1 vs 1 in almost all cases outside of a great defensive play. There is a ridiculous amount of trials of very similar situations with the same players. Football is not nearly as predictable. at all.

[Azull]

The chances of them getting that 1 yard were so high that it outweighed the fact that NO would have an easy FG if they didnt make it.

It would be like betting on Red and Black in roulette and the wheel hitting 00

[Cail]

Throwing hand or no?

didnt say, but said he he had it before the half and went out in the 2nd half anyway

[Bregor]

It's his right (throwing) hand.

[Cleverness]

I feel really bad for tyche so im going to give him till 9pmest to make it. if he doesnt i am going to make one in the spirit of rhinox

unless i dont because i forget or am playing the vidya

Naw I am calling dibs on the Rex Grossman Week 11 thread if Tyche is busy, already sent him a PM about it.

[Cail]

i miss rhinox

BEARS

[archibaldcrane]

I didn't think the decision was that bad, but a long handoff run up the middle was the worst of both worlds. Either QB sneak, or run something pass or around the edge since they have to crash on a sneak first. Run up the gut is just sending him right into a pile of players crashing the sneak.

[Demosthenes11]

The chances of them getting that 1 yard were so high that it outweighed the fact that NO would have an easy FG if they didnt make it.

It would be like betting on Red and Black in roulette and the wheel hitting 00

70% conversion rate is nowhere near 1/19

and converting doesn't even guarantee yourself any kind of win at all. still gotta go 50 more yards. There is 0 reason to gamble on a 70% chance probability that would only give you a marginally better chance to win over giving them a near 100% chance to win if you don't convert. 3 scenerios here: you have a 58% chance to win, you have a 42% chance to win, or you have a 5% chance to win.

[tyven]

Naw I am calling dibs on the Rex Grossman Week 11 thread if Tyche is busy, already sent him a PM about it.

FINE

[Demosthenes11]

This week's thread should simply be about tyler palko ONLY

[archibaldcrane]

70% conversion rate is nowhere near 1/19

and converting doesn't even guarantee yourself any kind of win at all. still gotta go 50 more yards. There is 0 reason to gamble on a 70% chance probability that would only give you a marginally better chance to win over giving them a near 100% chance to win if you don't convert. 3 scenerios here: you have a 58% chance to win, you have a 42% chance to win, or you have a 5% chance to win.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011...own-in-ot.html

Read up, they do factor the odds of not converting and that resulting win probability.

[Mertron]

stats are for nerds

nerds

[Dimmauk]

If some super cool mod let rhino come back, how would he know? Can he make a new account? I suggest ROSEX.