Neo Nyzul Isle (Will FFXI continue? Find out on the next FFXI XP Pack!)

**NynJa** · 2012-09-29 21:22

9, birds, 4132
74, forget, 312 (we did 123 then 231...took us longer to do the 3 lamp order over the 4 lamp order)

two order floors in 1 run, which we timed out on the boss at 5%. YEAH FUCK YOU AND YOUR STUPID BALANCE

can we spam SE forums to get rid of these fucking order floors. Got 6 of them in 3 runs, 3 5 lamp, 2 3 lamp, 1 4. GET RID OF THIS FUCKING GARBAGE HOLY FUCKKKKKKKKKKKKK YES IM MAD

**chichicha** · 2012-09-30 01:00

Yea, sometimes, I am thinking quit doing Nyzle Isle.
My static didn't use any flee or dat swap...
Each run we are having at least 2 lamp orders. Almost one month of spamming it... Never got a run with less than 2 lamp order...

This is what we get when we don't use '3rd pt' plugin ?!
Really not sure what is fair and balance in game anymore

**pchan** · 2012-09-30 04:38

Originally Posted by NynJa

can we spam SE forums to get rid of these fucking order floors.

No really ? I felt a little lonely when I made QQ threads on the OF. Almost every BG poster was defending the shit event. Also don't bother elaborating a strategy. Order lamp= dead run whatever cheats you are using.

**Eurell** · 2012-09-30 07:04

Originally Posted by pchan

No really ? I felt a little lonely when I made QQ threads on the OF. Almost every BG poster was defending the shit event. Also don't bother elaborating a strategy. Order lamp= dead run whatever cheats you are using.

Don't bother elaborating a strategy because I will say its wrong and not back anything up even though 10 other people draw out diagrams and prove me wrong with math. 3 lamp orders can take 20 attempts!

**pugnax179** · 2012-09-30 09:16

pass a lamp floor=clearly cheating

**Tsuneo** · 2012-09-30 10:49

We like never get order lamps anyway. Our most common lamp seems to be code.

**Aylee** · 2012-09-30 11:25

Originally Posted by chichicha

Yea, sometimes, I am thinking quit doing Nyzle Isle.
My static didn't use any flee or dat swap...
Each run we are having at least 2 lamp orders. Almost one month of spamming it... Never got a run with less than 2 lamp order...

This is what we get when we don't use '3rd pt' plugin ?!
Really not sure what is fair and balance in game anymore

Quit talking out your ass. Multiple people have recorded their runs the absolute max chance at hitting a lamp floor is 20% of that 20% it's split 3 ways between code/same time/order so that gives you a max chance of 6% and that's rounding up even though order is rarer ones to hit. It is impossible to hit 2 code floors every run over the course of a month. If you people can't win then stop bitching and qui doing the event. Plenty of other people are winning with the new update.

**pchan** · 2012-09-30 11:44

Originally Posted by Aylee

Quit talking out your ass. Multiple people have recorded their runs the absolute max chance at hitting a lamp floor is 20% of that 20% it's split 3 ways between code/same time/order so that gives you a max chance of 6% and that's rounding up even though order is rarer ones to hit. It is impossible to hit 2 code floors every run over the course of a month. If you people can't win then stop bitching and qui doing the event. Plenty of other people are winning with the new update.

6% per floor then. But out of 20 jumps thats 1-0.94^20=71% chance to see at least one lamp order in your run. With 15 jumps it comes 60%. Now that you say it, I remember that all the pro nyzul on the OF where using the low probability of a lamp order as an argument, haha.

**Aylee** · 2012-09-30 11:51

Originally Posted by pchan

6% per floor then. But out of 20 jumps thats 1-0.94^20=71% chance to see at least one lamp order in your run. With 15 jumps it comes 60%. Now that you say it, I remember that all the pro nyzul on the OF where using the low probability of a lamp order as an argument, haha.

71% chance to hit 1 order floor per run... Assuming he did 4 runs a week for 4 weeks that's 16 runs of hitting 2 lamp order per run... It's impossible

**Eurell** · 2012-09-30 11:53

Originally Posted by pchan

6% per floor then. But out of 20 jumps thats 1-0.94^20=71% chance to see at least one lamp order in your run. With 15 jumps it comes 60%. Now that you say it, I remember that all the pro nyzul on the OF where using the low probability of a lamp order as an argument, haha.

60% for one order floor. Which pretty much proves that its near impossible to hit 2 orer floors 30 times in a row. Thanks for proving his point?

And even if order floors were an instant loss (they aren't) big fucking deal. You just said yourself theres a 30-40% chance of not getting an order floor. Even if you have only a 25% win rate, you would still be done with all 3 sets of gear within 2 months. Is 2 months too much fucking time for people to put in for some pretty awesome gear?

**NynJa** · 2012-09-30 11:55

Originally Posted by Aylee

Quit talking out your ass. Multiple people have recorded their runs the absolute max chance at hitting a lamp floor is 20% of that 20% it's split 3 ways between code/same time/order so that gives you a max chance of 6% and that's rounding up even though order is rarer ones to hit. It is impossible to hit 2 code floors every run over the course of a month. If you people can't win then stop bitching and qui doing the event. Plenty of other people are winning with the new update.

My group hit 5 order lamp runs in 3 runs last night (sorry I previously said 6, I checked logs), out of 8 lamp floors (other 3 were same time, no code floors in 8 lamp floors, YEAH!) over 50 possible floors (took out boss floors). I really wish we had the luck you guys had...

Originally Posted by Aylee

71% chance to hit 1 order floor per run... Assuming he did 4 runs a week for 4 weeks that's 16 runs of hitting 2 lamp order per run... It's impossible

So impossible we did it twice last night -.-

Spoiler: show

**Aylee** · 2012-09-30 11:57

Originally Posted by Eurell

60% for one order floor. Which pretty much proves that its near impossible to hit 2 orer floors 30 times in a row. Thanks for proving his point?

And even if order floors were an instant loss (they aren't) big fucking deal. You just said yourself theres a 30-40% chance of not getting an order floor. Even if you have only a 25% win rate, you would still be done with all 3 sets of gear within 2 months. Is 2 months too much fucking time for people to put in for some pretty awesome gear?

My point exactly. People are puting all their time and energy bitching about something that's not gonna change. Put that time into improving ur teams communication and bam problem fixed.

You hit 2 code floors on 2 sets of 16 runs last night? Wow grats. If u actually read what I said it clearly states that the probability of biting 2 order floors every run for 16 runs is so low that is basically impossible. Can u get 2 or even 5 order in one run? Yes. 16 runs in a row? No way in hell. Hitting 8 lamp floors in 3 runs is pretty good tbh but u got strait up fucked with that many codes. My group hits 3-4 lamp per run usually 1 order 1 same time 1-2 code.

Poit of my post was people should stop bitching about orders and how it's bull shit. U posted logs of ur runs and clearly shows u hitting 2 order floors in one run and still biting 100. Shits not inpossible and doesn't even make it that mug harder tbh. Adds 1-2 min to ur run max

**pchan** · 2012-09-30 12:38

Originally Posted by Eurell

60% for one order floor. Which pretty much proves that its near impossible to hit 2 orer floors 30 times in a row. Thanks for proving his point?

And even if order floors were an instant loss (they aren't) big fucking deal. You just said yourself theres a 30-40% chance of not getting an order floor. Even if you have only a 25% win rate, you would still be done with all 3 sets of gear within 2 months. Is 2 months too much fucking time for people to put in for some pretty awesome gear?

You don't win 25% of the time without order. You are acting as if lamps order were a problem pre-VU. Lamp order were actually NOT a problem since everyone was going 1/1. So let's make a reverse evaluation of your chances ?

If prior to VU you had 25% win rate, this number had 60% of its win runs done with a lamp order, so in reality you had around 10% win rate among all types of runs plus 15% win rate coming from the runs that had lamp orders in them. Which means you have 10/85=11.7% win rate on runs that don't include lamps. Now with the VU you lose all the order lamps runs (60% of all runs), which implies 0.117*40%=4.7% win rate global.

Therefore, you need about 21 runs for 1 piece of gear, 105 runs for a full set. So it's not 3 set in 2 months, it's one set in 3 months. Also your 25% winrate pre vu is likely pulled out of your ass and lamp are not the only thing that fucks runs.

**Eurell** · 2012-09-30 12:49

Originally Posted by pchan

You don't win 25% of the time without order. You are acting as if lamps order were a problem pre-VU. Lamp order were actually NOT a problem since everyone was going 1/1. So let's make a reverse evaluation of your chances ?

If prior to VU you had 25% win rate, this number had 60% of its win runs done with a lamp order, so in reality you had around 15% win rate among all types of runs plus 10% win rate coming from the runs that had lamp orders in them. Which means you have 15/90=16% win rate on runs that don't include lamps. Now with the VU you lose all the order lamps runs (60% of all runs), which implies 0.16*40%=6.6%.

Therefore, you need about 15 runs for 1 piece of gear, 60 runs for a full set. So it's not 3 set in 2 month, it's one set in 2 months. Also your 25% winrate pre vu is likely pulled out of your ass.

I already said above we won 2/4 after the update. We then lost another run the following night, but that still leaves us with 2/5. I've never used dat swaps or clipper or fill mode or w/e. None of it is needed.

Nyzul is hard, there's no denying that. Nyzul is heavily luck based, which fucking sucks. But stop pretending its impossible. It's not. 2 shitty floors can easily be made up for by an easy floor. Anytime you get a spec one or code floor, and that shit pops one room away from the lamp (which is pretty often) you're gonna be going up in under a minute. For as many times as it takes 20 jumps to hit 100, you're gonna have just as many runs as it takes only 15-16.

I've already explained how to speed up order lamp floors anyway but you said it was wrong despite everyone (and basic math) disagreeing with you. Jesus christ dude, how can anyone take you seriously if you can't figure out that a 5 order lamp floor will never take more than 5 guesses with the absolute worst luck if you aren't retarded. It's ok if you personally can not handle this event. It is. But don't try to tell people its impossible.

**Vag** · 2012-09-30 12:57

If you were consistently clearing fl 100 with time to spare, order lamps shouldn't devastate your win rate as some people in here might suggest.

My only recommendation would be, don't trail 10+ mobs going for the lamps, as you actually need to pay attention to what lamps stay lit. If you have gears in inconvenient places, voke and kill if possible.

**pchan** · 2012-09-30 13:06

Originally Posted by Eurell

I already said above we won 2/4 after the update. We then lost another run the following night, but that still leaves us with 2/5. I've never used dat swaps or clipper or fill mode or w/e. None of it is needed.

Nyzul is hard, there's no denying that. Nyzul is heavily luck based, which fucking sucks. But stop pretending its impossible. It's not. 2 shitty floors can easily be made up for by an easy floor. Anytime you get a spec one or code floor, and that shit pops one room away from the lamp (which is pretty often) you're gonna be going up in under a minute. For as many times as it takes 20 jumps to hit 100, you're gonna have just as many runs as it takes only 15-16.

I've already explained how to speed up order lamp floors anyway but you said it was wrong despite everyone (and basic math) disagreeing with you. Jesus christ dude, how can anyone take you seriously if you can't figure out that a 5 order lamp floor will never take more than 5 guesses with the absolute worst luck if you aren't retarded. It's ok if you personally can not handle this event. It is. But don't try to tell people its impossible.

Ok fine, 50% winrate post vu, with no form of cheat, maybe someone will take you seriously.

**Aylee** · 2012-09-30 13:10

Originally Posted by pchan

Ok fine, 50% winrate post vu, with no form of cheat, maybe someone will take you seriously.

With a good group 50% is normal... My group has a 25% win rate post update and we use mnk, drg, drk, Sam... 4 Ukkno wars would easily double/triple our win rate

**Septimus** · 2012-09-30 15:39

Originally Posted by pchan

No really ? I felt a little lonely when I made QQ threads on the OF. Almost every BG poster was defending the shit event. Also don't bother elaborating a strategy. Order lamp= dead run whatever cheats you are using.

The bold part is impossible, because most of the people who also post on BG were banned from the official forums within three months.

**NynJa** · 2012-09-30 15:42

Originally Posted by Septimus

The bold part is impossible, because most of the people who also post on BG were banned from the official forums within three months.

**Spicyryan** · 2012-09-30 18:35

Originally Posted by pchan

No really ? I felt a little lonely when I made QQ threads on the OF. Almost every BG poster was defending the shit event. Also don't bother elaborating a strategy. Order lamp= dead run whatever cheats you are using.

Oh Pchan..

I did three runs last night (not everyone can see lamp #s so I gave up on trying to compile expected order vs actual order).

Spoiler: show

The last run I was worried for a bit at the bad jumps ruining the run again (2,4,6,2,3, etc), but it picked up and we got a couple of 7-9 jumps. We had three order lamps floors. One with four lamps, one with three, and one with five lamps. We handily won with three minutes left. Did the order lamps add time to the run? Yeah, but there are several environments that are worse than order floors.
Either way they do not immediately signal the death of a run.

TL;DR Pchan post is Pchan post.

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