Mega Millions jackpot @ $640M and won

[Tweek]

Nevada can't buy tickets so they come to Cali to buy, here was the line @ ~11 AM

[bluefan]

Makes me want to drive down to Minne and buy one.

[Tweek]

Makes me want to drive down to Minne and buy one.

ehehe you got almost 5 hrs

[Tagus]

So I started a lottery pool at my work last week... every time nobody wins I get stuck with all these people throwing money at me to organize it again. Today, a few more people came out of the woodwork to jump in... ended up buying 78 sets of numbers today. Get this... 3 out of 5 people who decided to pick their numbers had at least 1 box with too many numbers in it, so they got rejected at the machine... 3 out of fucking five. One of the guys got mad at me because when I reduced his box from 6 down to 5, the number I removed was his daughter's birthday. I ended up buying an extra ticket with my own money just to shut the asshole up. I hate people sometimes. I just hope somebody wins this fucker so I don't have to do this shit anymore.

[aurik]

Looking forward to the winning number being shared among like 20 tickets, so the payout is nothing special.

[Headspace]

I'd be happy with 30k tbh.

[Cail]

I'd be happy with 30k tbh.

id be happy with 30 bucks

[Dimmauk]

When I win, I'm buying like 20 ban credits.

[Eleven19]

Bought 10 dollars with. Gunna win fo sho

[Lazaruz]

watch like 10 ppl hit the jackpot lol

[Necronus]

watch like 10 ppl hit the jackpot lol

That still puts like 20-25 Mil in 10 different peoples pockets, post tax.

[Chrius]

Gotta have at least 1 ticket. Not playing means no chance you will drive down to your lottery HQ to collect over half a billion dollars (over 26 years). Slightly less currently for cash.

[Pirian]

still not playing

[Melena]

I'm not greedy, just give me 5/5. That will let me pay off all mine and wife's debts, buy my dad something nice for all the help he gave me and the wife for our wedding, and a sizeable down payment on a house with money left over.

[hey]

I'll play when it's high enough that i can buy every single number and still come out ahead.

[Cail]

how much is 1 ticket?

[Cantih]

A dollar

[Necronus]

I'll play when it's high enough that i can buy every single number and still come out ahead.

Um ... as stated before, its already that high. Better go find your 175 Million Dollar backer ... oh and good luck not splitting the pot with this many bought tickets, the odds of a number not being in circulation are about as low as a lottery will ever get.

[Foldypaws]

It's past the break point for voluntary tax/idiot tax though, though the exact break point does vary by state. Of course, what I mean by that is the point where the ticket no longer has a negative expected return value. Its actually at a lower point, but at somepoint near approximately 500-525 Million, and taking into account the lump sum payout minus taxes, the odds of winning are equal to the amount of dollars that will be all yours. If you were to buy all 175 Million+ combinations right now and were somehow the only winner (which is extremely doubtful with how many tickets got bought on this round) then you'd profit, albeit not a whole lot in relation to the initial investment.

Edit: Added the critical word ... "expected value", for any stats people who jump on me.

That's the key point. Assuming that a ticket is a dollar? That makes 100 million tickets which each need to not pick a winning number. Assuming each of those poeple picks independently and randomly, the odds of not a single one of them picking the winning number (if there are 176 million possible numbers, as the article says.) is (1- (176 million)^-1)^100 million, or ~56%.

As a first (not so great, but I don't want to do more math) approximation, assuming that only one other person would pick the number, an upper bound on your expected payout is thus ~.56*324 + .44*(324/2) = 252 million.

Which would actually still be a profit I guess, but that's an upper bound. The real expected payout is going to be less by some amount that I'm *really* not in the mood to calculate.

So I guess if you've got 176 million and like to gamble, go for it. (From my upper bound above you're basically flipping a coin to either lose more than 14 million, or gain ~148 million)

[hey]

Um ... as stated before, its already that high.

No it's not.

oh and good luck not splitting the pot with this many bought tickets, the odds of a number not being in circulation are about as low as a lottery will ever get.

Which you apparently already knew.

@foldypaw numbers aren't picked independently. Each person may pick independently from any other person, but most people are buying numerous tickets, and it is unlikely anyone is buying multiples of the same number. Plus pools of hundreds of tickets are not uncommon either. Actual odds are way lower.