Mega Millions jackpot @ $640M and won

[Tweek]

people laugh at poor people who buy lotto tickets because of low odds throwing money away every week.. these same people making a point to tell everyone they will not buy a ticket now are not willing to spend $1 on a chance. shit even $10... talking bout $10 yall can't afford to throw $10 in once a year maybe twice a year when it gets this high?

[Shuvo]

Pretty lame how the payout is taxed. Over here they tax the lotto ticket itself, so if you win you get the full amount.

[hey]

people laugh at poor people who buy lotto tickets because of low odds throwing money away every week.. these same people making a point to tell everyone they will not buy a ticket now are not willing to spend $1 on a chance. shit even $10... talking bout $10 yall can't afford to throw $10 in once a year maybe twice a year when it gets this high?

The chance is the same as it would be if the jackpot was $30m. And the outcome would be exactly the same: i'd never work another day in my life. Playing the lottery is dumb as fuck, no matter how high the jackpot.

[hey]

Pretty lame how the payout is taxed. Over here they tax the lotto ticket itself, so if you win you get the full amount.

So...the full amount is then lower. Makes no difference where the tax is applied.

[solanis]

taking it as a lump sum makes a lot more sense than taking the gradual payouts. dump the 300+ of the lump into a risk-free investment vehicle, get 2% and have the interest deposited instead of automatically re-invested, enjoy your absurdly lavish lifestyle without spending a cent of the initial capital

[Foldypaws]

No it's not.

Which you apparently already knew.

@foldypaw numbers aren't picked independently. Each person may pick independently from any other person, but most people are buying numerous tickets, and it is unlikely anyone is buying multiples of the same number. Plus pools of hundreds of tickets are not uncommon either. Actual odds are way lower.

Nope. The odds for 100m people buying 1 ticket at random are, as previously stated (1-(1/176m))^100m.

If, instead, you have 100k people each buying 1k ticket, you have odds of (1-(1k/176m))^100k.

Take the log of each. You get 100m ln(1-(1/176m)) and 100k ln(1-(1k/176m)).

Taking the taylor expansion of a logarithm you get ln(1+x)= x-x^2/2+.... Neglecting the x^2 and higher terms because they are over 176 thousand times smaller, you have

-100m*1/176m and -100k*(1k/176m), or -100/176.

Take e^(-100/176) and both of them give you the same ~56% chance of winning by yourself.


This is true until x^2 becomes substantial, i.e. until you have more than 1 person buying ~1% of the tickets.

Under that, it doesn't matter to first order.

I doubt there are that many people blowing 1.76 million on the lottery.

[Tweek]

The chance is the same as it would be if the jackpot was $30m. And the outcome would be exactly the same: i'd never work another day in my life. Playing the lottery is dumb as fuck, no matter how high the jackpot.

The value of a ticket goes up as the jackpot goes up since you always have the same odds of winning and the cost of a ticket is fixed.

Of course the value of the ticket never exceeds the cost which is why you're always a loser when you play the lottery, but at least you're not as much of a loser when the jackpot is over $300 mil.

not to mention it's easier to get a pool of people together when the jackpot is ridiculous.


also who gives a fuck it's minute amount of money, no matter how you cut it our chances our better than yours.


To everyone else I wish you good luck.

[FNH]

Wish my state wasn't assholes about the lottery, With work I never had a chance to drive to a neighboring state to grab a couple tickets.

[Callisto]

The lottery has about the same returns as real estate equity and wall street investing at this point, might as well

[solanis]

The lottery has about the same returns as real estate equity and wall street investing at this point, might as well

are you serious

[Melena]

GDI Callisto, you had to open that can of worms, didn't you.

[solanis]

shots fired

[Callisto]

GDI Callisto, you had to open that can of worms, didn't you.

[hey]

also who gives a fuck it's minute amount of money, no matter how you cut it our chances our better than yours.

By that logic you should also spend your time digging holes in your back yard, because your chances of finding suit cases full of $100 bills there are higher if you do than if you don't.

[FNH]

By that logic you should also spend your time digging holes in your back yard, because your chances of finding suit cases full of $100 bills there are higher if you do than if you don't.

If someone found one I would sure be digging. But unlike the lottery, where people do win, people are not finding things in my yard.

[Patriarch]

I put $150 in.

Also tipping my hat to irrationality.

[hey]

If someone found one I would sure be digging. But unlike the lottery, where people do win, people are not finding things in my yard.

Only because more people play the lottery than dig for suit cases full of money in their back yards.

[Serif]

taking it as a lump sum makes a lot more sense than taking the gradual payouts. dump the 300+ of the lump into a risk-free investment vehicle, get 2% and have the interest deposited instead of automatically re-invested, enjoy your absurdly lavish lifestyle without spending a cent of the initial capital

Taking the lump sum would dramatically reduce the amount you are getting as well right? Probably making your total amount won like 225mil, OH NOEZ.

That being said, I never plan on buying a lottery ticket.

[hey]

Taking the lump sum would dramatically reduce the amount you are getting as well right? Probably making your total amount won like 225mil, OH NOEZ.

That being said, I never plan on buying a lottery ticket.

The 11 p.m. ET drawing could provide a lucky ticket holder with a lump-sum, pretax payoff of $462 million.

325m after taxes. You could get the whole $640m over 30(?) years if you wanted, but that would be really dumb, since you can make more by investing.

[Serif]

325m after taxes. You could get the whole $640m over 30(?) years if you wanted, but that would be really dumb, since you can make more by investing.

Ahhh okay, I was mistaken. Yay 14 hour work days :L