Is/n't Tesla literally/figuratively crashing?

[Salodin]

It is? Cause refuelling a semi truck is not cheap. Even at 250k, over the life of a vehicle you're saving crazy money. Not to mention giving truck drivers auto pilot is pretty fucking awesome and great for highway safety, so you save money there too.

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[Byrthnoth]

iirc comparable diesel semis cost 100-150k.

The major savings with the truck would probably come on fuel. It looks like they expect the Semi to get about 100mi/200kWh (0.5 mi/kWh, lets say $0.10/kWh so $0.20/mi). The comparison generic truck gets 6.5mi/gal (avg diesel $2.8/gal so $0.43/mi) or, if you are willing to pay for fuel economy, 10mi/gal (0.28/mi.) You're looking at something between 430k and 2.5 million miles to pull even. This analysis purely compares strengths of the Tesla Semi to weaknesses of diesel. If you start to tack on the risks involved in being a new adopter of untested technology and relatively unproven tangible benefits (fewer moving pieces), you can begin to see why I'm not so hot on this truck.


I'd argue that the benefits to society of truck drivers having auto pilot (making the currently unfounded presumption that auto pilot is superior to the average truck driver) and emitting fewer greenhouse gasses are externalities that aren't worth much to the industry. If Hilldog was president and we could get some environmental rebate mojo going on, I could see Tesla getting over the hump with this. As it is, I worry that the economics of trucking will kill them.

[TummieGaruda]

That's all great and all but how about getting Tesla 3 production fixed please.

Yeah it sucks that all delivery estimate windows got pushed back a month, but it also helps to possibly slightly delay the EV tax phase out window (depending on how the Senate Tax bill goes). I do know that they are up to VIN 1134 so far, however as learned from the Model X production VIN number ranges can be skipped so it's not a true analysts of quantity of cars built. Last I heard they were still stockpiling parts while dealing with the battery bottleneck so that when it is 100% sorted they will be able to produce an increased number of cars to get thru the backlog.

[Salodin]

iirc comparable diesel semis cost 100-150k.

The major savings with the truck would probably come on fuel. It looks like they expect the Semi to get about 100mi/200kWh (0.5 mi/kWh, lets say $0.10/kWh so $0.20/mi). The comparison generic truck gets 6.5mi/gal (avg diesel $2.8/gal so $0.43/mi) or, if you are willing to pay for fuel economy, 10mi/gal (0.28/mi.) You're looking at something between 430k and 2.5 million miles to pull even. This analysis purely compares strengths of the Tesla Semi to weaknesses of diesel. If you start to tack on the risks involved in being a new adopter of untested technology and relatively unproven tangible benefits (fewer moving pieces), you can begin to see why I'm not so hot on this truck.


I'd argue that the benefits to society of truck drivers having auto pilot (making the currently unfounded presumption that auto pilot is superior to the average truck driver) and emitting fewer greenhouse gasses are externalities that aren't worth much to the industry. If Hilldog was president and we could get some environmental rebate mojo going on, I could see Tesla getting over the hump with this. As it is, I worry that the economics of trucking will kill them.

Need many thousand more miles of driving, but current data has auto pilot wayyy safer than human driving, especially in regards to avoid other people getting in an accident. If that couples with lower insurance prices, hopefully some tax rebate stuff, lower maintenance costs, etc, I don't think this will be as big a hill to climb up as you think. It's an investment sure, but one they'd eventually make with current diesel trucks at the end of their current vehicle lifespan. They don't need to replace their fleet, they just need to stop buying new diesel trucks to replace their current ones.

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[TummieGaruda]

Public Model 3 config invites went out this morning to those at the front of the line (current model s or x owners). Delivery time is 4 weeks.

[TummieGaruda]

Just a heads up:

If you want to see the Model 3 in person and are in the LA area, it is currently on display at the LA Auto Show running from Dec 1-10th. Ticket prices are $12/per adult.

[Jaybar]

More hyperloop news...from the Midwest! Chicago opening up RFQs for a hyperloop from O'Hare International Airport to the downtown Loop. Musk has decided to enter the competition.

High Speed Rail in Chicago

The billionaire tech entrepreneur tweeted Wednesday that his Boring Company will compete to design, fund, build and operate a high-speed loop connecting O'Hare Airport with downtown Chicago.

Musk's statement came after Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel asked for proposals to build and operate a high-speed rail line that will whisk passengers from the airport to downtown in 20 minutes or less, cutting travel times in half. Contractors will also have to figure out how to finance it without taxpayer dollars, Emanuel said.

I'm still salty they aren't doing the Circle Loop.

[6souls]

Interesting. 18 miles in 20 minutes. Minneapolis has a light rail system from the airport to downtown which is 11 miles, but takes on average 33 minutes.

[Jaybar]

Interesting. 18 miles in 20 minutes. Minneapolis has a light rail system from the airport to downtown which is 11 miles, but takes on average 33 minutes.

Yea Chicago still has the Blue Line El station from O'Hare to downtown (and all the stops between) but it takes about 45 minutes. Only costs $2.25 and beats taking a cab getting stuck in the perpetual traffic that is the I90/94 interchange. One of the big issues is going to be frequency of departures. If you have to sit around for 15 to 30 minutes just waiting for the next hyper-train then what is the point? The Blue Line leaves every 4-8 minutes and there is a train always waiting for you, and will even wait for you on the escalator!

[Ragnus]

I'm pretty excited about the full electric Jeep Wrangler coming out in Model Year 2020. I've always wanted one, but the 12-14mpg was a total killer for me. Now it's pretty much the only thing I'm considering when my Honda Fit shits the bed.

[BaneTheBrawler]

Oh hell yeah

[6souls]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42858668

Research group funded by German auto makers used monkeys and humans in tests to disapprove the WHO decision that exhaust fumes are a carcinogen.

German media say the health impact research was done by EUGT, a body funded by Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW.

On Thursday the New York Times reported that the EUGT research was designed to counter a 2012 decision by the World Health Organization to classify diesel exhaust as a carcinogen.

It said that in 2014, EUGT had exposed 10 monkeys to fumes - in an air-tight chamber - from several cars, including a diesel VW Beetle. The testing took place at a lab in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Then at the weekend Germany's Stuttgarter Zeitung and SWR radio reported that 19 men and six women had inhaled diesel fumes in another EUGT experiment.

During a month of tests at a lab in Aachen, west Germany, they were exposed to various concentrations of diesel fumes, which contain toxic nitrogen oxides (NOx).

At the time the carmakers were arguing that modern technology had cut pollution from diesel engines to safe levels. But VW was later found to have fitted "cheat" devices that rigged the emissions data.

[Salodin]

How are they gonna compare lifelong exposure to fumes to a measly fraction of exposure and say anything with confidence? I gotta read the study but it seems like the pot smoking monkey experiment all over again...

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[Deftscythe]

2018 and Germans still gassin people. smdh

[TummieGaruda]

Trump suggesting a $0.25 Federal Gas Tax increase...this will definitely not be welcomed in California where we just recently raised our tax by 12 cents.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/14/polit...tax/index.html

[mallister]

hasn't a federal gas tax boost been third rail levels of politically unpopular for a long time?

[Byrthnoth]

I am okay with this, but surprised to see it from Trump.

[archibaldcrane]

The key to understanding what the government is going to do is ignore everything Trump says.

[archibaldcrane]

Interesting article about a hydrogen company with an, uh, Elon Musk-ish plan to scale up their technology for hydrogen powered vehicles and energy storage.

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-envir...hytech-storage

[Buffy]

Before batteries started having the charge capacity they do now, there were a lot of people who thought hydrogen vehicles would be the natural successor to gasoline vehicles. Distribution is harder than gasoline though.