2012 BG Pick Ems (College, NFL, Eliminator)

[Akiyama]

top 2 worldwide in pickem both had oregon state beating wisconsin, one at 5 and one at 6

I really wanted to put them higher on my list than 1 because I was like 70:30 in my head that they were gonna pull it off. :/ Feels shitty that I didn't go with my gut.

[Plow]

I still say if they just keep giving montee the ball (er...) they'd have won without too much trouble.

[Akiyama]

Surprised at how well they shut down the rushing attack and I have a feeling that they didn't fear the QB at all.

[Byrd]

I really wanted to put them higher on my list than 1 because I was like 70:30 in my head that they were gonna pull it off. :/ Feels shitty that I didn't go with my gut.

I really didn't think that with Mike Riley's terrible September record, and the lack of game experience, they had much of a chance. Lots of teams struggle with their Week 1 opponents and come out hair on fire the next week, I kind of expected the same thing from Wisconsin.

I still say if they just keep giving montee the ball (er...) they'd have won without too much trouble.

We were discussing this in the stands during the game. They were gaining slightly more per carry on the ground than per passing play, but it still wasn't much. But with the size differential between the Wisconsin O-line and the OSU D-line, we figured the more running plays they had, eventually the Beavers' line would get worn down. But Wisconsin kept trying to push the pass when that wasn't working at all. It was a strange game. I think it's safe to say Wisconsin's worse than we thought, but I think it's also safe to say Oregon State's better than expected, particularly the defense.

Beavs have another week off this week (one game in the first three weeks Whee!), then have UCLA in the Rose Bowl the following week. That should be an interesting test for both teams. Considering Mike Riley's September road record all time at OSU (1 win in 13 seasons), I'm skeptical. Then again, I was skeptical last weekend, too.

[Plow]

I don't think they could have held up at all. It's not like he had a couple long runs, he was legitimately getting a first down every 3 carries. Even near the end at one point, his last carry actually... it was 3rd and 7ish, passing game was turbl obviously, I figured they'd just do something retarded and game would end cuz it was getting too late to try running too much anyway... gave it to Montee and he picked up the first down easily...

and then they didn't give him the ball again

they had the opportunity to give him 30-40 carries, and I have almost no doubt he'd have ended up around 150+ yards and about enough points on his own to win the game

[Byrd]

I don't think they could have held up at all. It's not like he had a couple long runs, he was legitimately getting a first down every 3 carries.

Not really, no. Montee Ball's first 13 runs of the game, up until Wisconsin's last two drives which were pass first drives due to time issues:

2, 7, 6, 1, 0, 1, 13, 3, 1, -3, 2, 2, -1 = 34 yards, less than three yards a carry. Two first downs in 14 carries (only because the 7 and 6 were back-to-back).

James White had three carries as well for a total of 11 yards.

Even near the end at one point, his last carry actually... it was 3rd and 7ish, passing game was turbl obviously, I figured they'd just do something retarded and game would end cuz it was getting too late to try running too much anyway... gave it to Montee and he picked up the first down easily...

When Oregon State is playing prevent defense because Wisconsin's playing hurry up offense with 3 minutes to go in the game, it's not terribly surprising that he can pick up longer runs. On the last two drives, Wisconsin ran the ball twice for over 10 yards each time. Whey they didn't run more on the first of those two drives, I have no idea, other than they must have thought it wasn't going to work due to the previous lack of success.

they had the opportunity to give him 30-40 carries, and I have almost no doubt he'd have ended up around 150+ yards and about enough points on his own to win the game

Less than three yards a carry doesn't get you a lot of first downs. I agree, they probably should have run more than they passed, as their passing game was equally bad and the team's strength is running. There's just no evidence whatsoever to support it would have been any more successful.

[Cail]

i picked the bengals in eliminator...i feel so dirty

[Plow]

Not really, no. Montee Ball's first 13 runs of the game, up until Wisconsin's last two drives which were pass first drives due to time issues:

2, 7, 6, 1, 0, 1, 13, 3, 1, -3, 2, 2, -1 = 34 yards, less than three yards a carry. Two first downs in 14 carries (only because the 7 and 6 were back-to-back).

James White had three carries as well for a total of 11 yards.



When Oregon State is playing prevent defense because Wisconsin's playing hurry up offense with 3 minutes to go in the game, it's not terribly surprising that he can pick up longer runs. On the last two drives, Wisconsin ran the ball twice for over 10 yards each time. Whey they didn't run more on the first of those two drives, I have no idea, other than they must have thought it wasn't going to work due to the previous lack of success.



Less than three yards a carry doesn't get you a lot of first downs. I agree, they probably should have run more than they passed, as their passing game was equally bad and the team's strength is running. There's just no evidence whatsoever to support it would have been any more successful.

You have to pay attention to the situations.

That 13 yard run was in the middle of 3 incomplete passes and a sack. The next drive, he ran for 3 yards, then 2 incomplete passes and a punt. The run prior had been short run, 2 incomplete, and a punt as well. The rest of the game was basically 1 run then throw til you lose the ball.

One of the 1 yard runs was when other dude ran for 9, then 0, so on 3rd and 1 after 2 straight runs they brought in montee and ran... shockingly enough, OSU wasn't surprised.

Long story short, he came out running well, then they went retarded and his numbers went with them.

[Cail]

some decent picks this week for eliminator..

debating between CHI (v STL), DET (@TEN), SF (@MIN), NO (vKC), and PIT (@OAK)...

[GImpers]

What do you think about BUF (vs CLE) this week?

[Cail]

not gonna use my week 3 on the bills, even if it is against he browns. i can see cleveland pulling this one off

[Plow]

strategy of save the best for last? go pitt

strategy of take the best matchup everyweek and see how long you last? san fran fo sho

[noblemountain]

bet the farm on teams you trust marginally better than the other...path to success!

[Byrd]

This is the ugliest Eliminator's ever been after three weeks by a long shot. Only 3 of 26 entries left after three weeks (maybe 4 if Hex gets tonight's game right).

I was glad to see Oregon State didn't come up this week on College Pick Em; I'm 0 for 2 on correctly picking their games, and been happy to be wrong both times. I was worried I was going to have to pick their game this week and would end up accidentally cursing them.

[Abandon]

These have all been shit for everyone. The Pats and Saints have been legit bunker busters, shit is lame.

[Moss]

I feel bad for people that picked the Saints in week 2 or 3 because I knew from watching their games to stay far far away.

[Cail]

so i was in the 99.7 percentile in the monday night thing...then i forgot about it tonight

[Byrd]

so i was in the 99.7 percentile in the monday night thing...then i forgot about it tonight

So I'm noticing just now that there are "second half" questions that apparently I need to fill out at halftime? That makes this game problematic, guess I should have read the rules more closely. But despite having not entered second half questions all season, I'm still in the 94.1st percentile. Clearly I'm not the only one.

[Abandon]

How many people picked the rams for that last game? I did

[Bregor]

How many people picked the rams for that last game? I did

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