US Presidential Election 2012 part 2: Bitches love Binders

[BaneTheBrawler]

All while simultaneously promising "small government" and opposing gay rights. Because apparently, sticking its nose into the private lives of gay people and saying "HEY. STOP THAT." is something small governments can do.

[Plow]

has this been mentioned?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...n_1995088.html

“She goes to Washington, D.C., it’s a little bit like one of those dogs, you know ‘fetch,’” Akin said. “She goes to Washington, D.C., and get all of these taxes and red tape and bureaucracy and executive orders and agencies and she brings all of this stuff and dumps it on us in Missouri.”

and the cleanup

http://www.kansascity.com/2012/10/21...-to-a-dog.html

"If Claire McCaskill were a dog, she'd be a 'Bullshitsu.'"

After the initial "dog" comment, McCaskill responded Monday by saying her campaign strategy with two weeks to go is to "just keep Todd Akin talking."

I believe their strategy is sound.

[Cleverness]

I think the funny part is he'll probably still poll ahead of her after that. If you can still be winning polls after the rape comment then idk what you can do. I'm sure Republicans aren't happy he did something to gain the spotlight again.

[Apelila]

Oh he's not polling ahead of her anymore, she's waaaaay out in front with a lead that's been growing linearly since July.

[Dimmauk]

Commentator on abc just said that Obama fact checking Romney doesn't matter and that Romney won just because he didn't majorly fuck up.

Did Obama majorly fuck up? Then how come he didn't win also?

[Guyverarmor]

It's because he's black, you know repubs hate black people.

[Jer]

Loved the tweet regarding Glenn Beck from Politically Social. 'Better a drifting Romney than a forward Obama.' God forbid we move forward.

And if I'm reading it right, Akin basically called his female contender a bitch? That may actually get him points in Missouri.

[ringthree]

So I like to troll the UK messageboards. It's full of hick, hillbillies, and racist ass republicans who worship Rush Limbaugh. One dude carried on a page worth of arguments that the reason Rush Limbaugh exists is because of people being fed up with the liberal media. He said he didn't give two shits about the repeal of the fairness doctrine, saying it had nothing to do with it. I thought that was hilarious given Rush pioneered that landscape of talk radio.

Anyway, they have this huge need to discredit Nate Silver, posting this as some refute (it's an oversampling argument that's I've beaten and debunked to death). Here's the thing about Nate Silver's model that I find absolutely fascinating; he's more bullish on Romney than anyone. The right should be citing him as the reason Romney has a chance. Sam Wang gives Romney about a 10% chance. Drew Linzer gives him about a 5 percent chance. University of Illinois gives him a 0.7% chance. Richard Charnin gives him a 5% chance. Nate Silver is Romney's champion and the right throw his ass under the bus. Does anyone have any model that actually projects Romney to win? A single one? The only model I'm aware of that projects Romney a winner is the University of Colorado model, however it uses no polling data, only economic factors, and it was developed after 2008 and never projected an election.

The funny thing about the Colorado model is that it was retroactively created to fit the last 10 elections or so, not to model anything. It's kind of a retarded idea.

There are more than a few models that have Romney winning though. I read an article about it a couple of weeks ago, but the models that had Romney winning were all based on economic factors and heavily devalued polls.

[ringthree]

Its even funnier since Romney's bounce, more and more of his supporters are coming to his blog and posting in the comments their conspiracy theories. Someone today was even like "the fact you even have this race at 66%-33% just shows your complete bias. It's obvious you're seeing what you want to see.

People really don't understand how models work. I blame the anti-intellectual movement of the right.

There was a great article a week ago on Sam Wang's blog about how close 66%-33% really is. It's basically just flipping a coin twice and getting heads both times.

[ringthree]

RCP isn't a forecaster though, it's just does aggregation. And even then, it doesn't aggregate all the polls.

And the number of polls it has started ignoring is getting ridiculous.

[ringthree]

No one likes genocide but unless the people living in those regions fix their own problems, they will never learn from the experiences.

Yeah... tell that to the Jews... the Rwandans... the Cambodians under Pol Pot.

Though in support of your argument. Syria is not a genocide, it is a bloody civil war.

[ringthree]

More real voter fraud: http://www.marconews.com/news/2012/o...le-to-vote-by/

[Plow]

holy shit obama going jeff foxworthy on romnesia right now in florida

[Helm]

That letter stuff is pretty dirty, although it seems fairly par for the course. >:

[Dimmauk]

I've been hearing alot of boxing terms used to describe the debate last night. Like Romney hugged it out because he was protecting his lead. So what about beating the champ? I get that they fought three 90 minute rounds, but Romney only won one round, and the second round was almost a 10-8 round for Obama. So now its up to the judges? Hopefully the voters aren't like real boxing judges, or else we are fucked.

[Headspace]

More real voter fraud: http://www.marconews.com/news/2012/o...le-to-vote-by/

Close to my Florida hometown.

I like how a guy from East Naples got a letter since East Naples is primarily poor Hispanic while west Naples is full of millionaire whites. Can't tell you how many Romney signs I pass on my way to my girlfriends. Although at least 3/4ths of her grandparents voted Obama and I think are still voting Obama. Mainly due to education and women's rights issues

[Plow]

The funny thing about the Colorado model is that it was retroactively created to fit the last 10 elections or so, not to model anything. It's kind of a retarded idea.

I don't understand why that's a retarded idea.

Find a common thread between the last 10 elections and show what that reflects about this one.

I mean, it's not like they can account for the next candidate being Romney lol, and I don't think many people disagree that if Romney wasn't a massive douche that's hated almost as much by his own party as the other, Obama would probably be pretty fucked right now.

[Tyche]

Because when you retrofit your analysis, you can make it say anything you want. You think it would be difficult to find economic factors favoring Obama that predicted the last 8 presidents? I don't. The model is awful. It puts a heavy weight on reelect chances (inversely) if you're a democrat with a high unemployment rate. Republican incumbents don't get the same penalty. It's fucking stupid.

[Plow]

Because when you retrofit your analysis, you can make it say anything you want. You think it would be difficult to find economic factors favoring Obama that predicted the last 8 presidents? I don't. The model is awful. It puts a heavy weight on reelect chances (inversely) if you're a democrat with a high unemployment rate. Republican incumbents don't get the same penalty. It's fucking stupid.

you don't think it would be difficult to show a model based on common threads in the economic factors relative to the past 10 elections or 8 presidents or whatever it is that's favorable for obama?

[Tyche]

No, as a matter of fact, I can tell you at least one. Obama made the single largest cut in unemployment rate in an election year in decades and incumbents that make cuts that large in their last year don't lose.

That's off the top of my head, imagine what someone could find with a commissioned study, especially when you add qualifiers like "we cant adversely modify GOP chances if they have a high unemployment rate or the model doesn't work".