US Presidential Election 2012 part 2: Bitches love Binders

[Mazmaz]

Obama's biggest downfall seems to be his belief in people, first it was the republicans, then it was the voters.

Yes, he's pretty much Jesus.

[Talint]

Sarah Palin blasts President Obama 'shuck and jive' on Benghazi

[ronin sparthos]

I had no idea what 'shuck and jive' meant. lol

[Athas]

Didn't Palin fade in obscurity already? Why is she getting any sort of coverage?

[ronin sparthos]

Didn't Palin fade in obscurity already? Why is she getting any sort of coverage?

Female face of the Republican party.

And a sex symbol to boot. Move over, Joe Biden.

[Correction]

Female face of the Republican party.

And a sex symbol to boot. Move over, Joe Biden.

[Tyche]

The predominant idea was that the Romney debate only produced about a one-two point bounce, even further, it started before the debates. I don't think Obama's "sleepwalking" contributed to it as much as we like to think. I also don't think we're at the "down to the wire" point. Romney has a 10% chance of sweeping Florida, Ohio, and Virginia...which is essentially required. I think the Florida numbers are about to squeeze because from what I've read, Obama is going for the headshot and hitting Florida heavy. The race isn't as close as the media is putting out. Here's some reading material.

[Cantih]

http://www.indiegogo.com/BidensTransAm?c=home

[Qalbert]

http://pastebin.com/1WQai5CU

lol

[kuronosan]

Roflmao

[Salodin]

Wtf? Women upset because science is about to prove their a bunch of chemically inbalanced meat bags?

[archibaldcrane]

The predominant idea was that the Romney debate only produced about a one-two point bounce, even further, it started before the debates. I don't think Obama's "sleepwalking" contributed to it as much as we like to think. I also don't think we're at the "down to the wire" point. Romney has a 10% chance of sweeping Florida, Ohio, and Virginia...which is essentially required. I think the Florida numbers are about to squeeze because from what I've read, Obama is going for the headshot and hitting Florida heavy. The race isn't as close as the media is putting out. Here's some reading material.

It went from a slam dunk to a situation where any more movement in Romney's favor could push him ahead. I know Obama is winning because he's consistently winning by a small margin in Ohio polls, but that's just about the only reason. I feel like there were a lot of people who were looking for any flaw in Obama to jump ship and the first debate gave them that opportunity (many others would've found some other reason to jump eventually) but the public perception is that he got crushed, and the immediate swing was 1.8% in popular vote in Silver's model. He's bounced a bit from that valley, and I think that says a lot about his "floor", and that floor may be able to carry him, but it ate up most of his room for error in the process. I definitely think it's possible to overstate the effect of the first debate (mainly to say that Obama is losing now because of it) but I think you're minimizing it.

[Cleverness]

Qal your avatar goes perfectly with that post cause of the hand lol

[Tyche]

Out of about 12 models I follow, Nate Silver is the only one that has it relatively close. People with higher accuracy and longer tenure in the game have the spread wider. Can Romney win? Sure, but I think a 33% chance is a massive overstatement. Yes, any more movement could push it ahead, but how much movement are we going to get? What's going to spark movement? The polls didn't move for months and even at it's peak of movement in what many say is the largest slam dunk in debate history, there was about a two point movement. Romney needs AT LEAST that to push him over the top in Ohio or Wisconsin and Nevada. What's going to give him another debate 1 level of bounce this late where the cake is mostly baked? To use a poker term, Obama has way too many outs.

[archibaldcrane]

I just don't see it that way. If he loses Ohio, his "outs" are pretty unlikely (sweeping Iowa/CO/NV/NH, or even less likely, winning VA and 2 of 4 of IA/CO/NV/NH). Of course losing OH is a big "if", but I really see it as his only likely "out".

Romney's not winning Wisconsin though. I've got my people on it.

[Talint]

The predominant idea was that the Romney debate only produced about a one-two point bounce, even further, it started before the debates. I don't think Obama's "sleepwalking" contributed to it as much as we like to think. I also don't think we're at the "down to the wire" point. Romney has a 10% chance of sweeping Florida, Ohio, and Virginia...which is essentially required. I think the Florida numbers are about to squeeze because from what I've read, Obama is going for the headshot and hitting Florida heavy. The race isn't as close as the media is putting out. Here's some reading material.

He should have been gunning for Florida since the beginning. A Florida victory is an Obama win right from the start.

Romney's crew realized this, and that's why they're probably going to win it.

[Tyche]

For all those to come down collectively to a level where Romney could actually have a winning map, we'd need to see a massive debate one type shift. The debate one bounce already faded and we've already moved the election back to pre-convention levels where it was settled for months. Ohio, Virginia, and Florida are Romney's outs. Florida is tightening and Ohio is stretching. I have a hard time believing something moves the needle again enough to push it. Maybe there's a video of Obama loading an RPG outside the embassy in Benghazi.

Of course, maybe the polls really did oversample and the polls have managed to collectively and massively underestimate Romney's turnout. If that happens, there could be trouble. I think there's just way too much data to suggest this to be the case however.

[Tyche]

He should have been gunning for Florida since the beginning. A Florida victory is an Obama win right from the start.

Romney's crew realized this, and that's why they're probably going to win it.

Florida typically leans republican and the race has always been close. It was so close that Romney's small bounce he got was enough to push it. It isn't like Obama simply gave up Florida.

[archibaldcrane]

They both literally have more money than they can spend, FL and OH have been carpet-bombed with advertising for months. There's no sense in pulling out of anywhere really, neither candidate is really constrained by resources.

[falloutboy14]

I wonder if we're going to see an hour-long special this year similar to Obama's 30 minute special last year.