Third-Party debate - Tuesday October 23rd

[RKenshin]

Since when is 8 to 21 a 33% increase?

Nice way to deflect, pivot, and ignore what I pointed out.

Here, let me simplify it for you:

Milk doesn't cost 200% more than it did in 2000 for any consumer in America.

Did they teach you to read charts in school? http://www.wikinvest.com/futures/Milk_Futures

Clearly shows an increase of no where near 200% over the past 11+ years. Far less even, when normalized.

Nice of you to provide a source that proves Arch's statement correct for him?

[venikk]

Nice way to deflect, pivot, and ignore what I pointed out.

Here, let me simplify it for you:

Maybe my calculator is broken, but 8.65 to 21 is a 143% increase.

[archibaldcrane]

I'm talking about a gallon of milk. You aren't. Stop it.

[archibaldcrane]

No gallon of milk costs $8.65 or $21. How disconnected from the real world are you?

[venikk]

I'm talking about a gallon of milk. You aren't. Stop it.

Fine, why are we talking about gallons then? You brought them up.

And the link you posted only goes back 3 years, which I might add it's up more than 7% a year in that chart.

For reference http://markets.financialcontent.com/...1%3A1900100027

[archibaldcrane]

Ok, here, I've found it. The price of a gallon of milk from 1999-current, by month. I can't link direct but it's easy enough to follow.

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ap

Enjoy.

And YOU brought up the price of milk, so we're going to talk about the price of milk until you admit you were wrong or you get banned again. I'm on an iPad, can someone create and screenshot the chart into this thread so it's as plain as the eye can see please?

[RKenshin]

Maybe my calculator is broken, but 8.65 to 21 is a 143% increase.

You're bad at stocks, numbers, and reading graphs if you believe that:

1. The lowest/highest points of the year are accurate measures of what it cost to 'buy a gallon of milk' in any given year (which as already pointed out, that chart doesn't represent anyway).

2. The difference between 143% and 200% is negligible.

I mean, talk about blatant cherry-picking. You're attempting to compare the lowest point of 2000 with the highest point of 2012 to suit your argument?

Normalizing prices in the years of 2000 and 2012... We have an expected price of $9.82 in 2000, and $16.79 in 2012. Or, a 71% increase.

71%

That, is a realistic number to draw from that chart's data. Not the hilariously bad 143%.


EDIT: @ Arch, here's the visual:



ib4 comparing the lowest point of '99 to the highest point of '12 in the follow-up argument.

[archibaldcrane]

Year,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov,D ec,Annual,
1999,2.940,3.004,3.003,2.707,2.716,2.704,2.706,2.7 19,2.794,2.964,2.981,2.875,
2000,2.785,2.777,2.748,2.773,2.782,2.763,2.781,2.8 07,2.809,2.805,2.753,2.785,
2001,2.852,2.847,2.760,2.845,2.893,2.911,2.933,2.8 90,2.941,2.954,2.890,2.895,
2002,2.812,2.807,2.816,2.779,2.782,2.768,2.747,2.7 20,2.728,2.727,2.719,2.682,
2003,2.686,2.689,2.656,2.674,2.685,2.676,2.708,2.6 66,2.904,2.905,2.937,2.947,
2004,2.879,2.814,2.786,2.906,3.374,3.574,3.479,3.2 97,3.149,3.161,3.219,3.233,
2005,3.304,3.176,3.226,3.225,3.207,3.122,3.090,3.1 36,3.133,3.171,3.211,3.241,
2006,3.197,3.224,3.161,3.123,3.066,3.001,3.083,3.0 19,3.049,3.064,2.985,3.004,
2007,3.067,3.083,3.072,3.135,3.259,3.427,3.736,3.8 07,3.841,3.838,3.904,3.870,
2008,3.871,3.869,3.781,3.799,3.760,3.773,3.961,3.8 86,3.773,3.656,3.734,3.681,
2009,3.575,3.319,3.116,3.084,3.068,3.009,2.992,2.9 79,2.981,3.046,3.034,3.105,
2010,3.236,3.203,3.188,3.140,3.178,3.297,3.313,3.3 03,3.278,3.321,3.327,3.318,
2011,3.301,3.357,3.503,3.597,3.653,3.622,3.654,3.7 13,3.715,3.622,3.557,3.565,
2012,3.583,3.520,3.499,3.474,3.427,3.396,3.428,3.4 74,3.469

Yes, that's the price of a gallon of milk in every single month between January of 1999 and September of 2012.

Over that period, the MOST EXPENSIVE SINGLE GALLON was $3.96 in Jul of 2008, and the CHEAPEST SINGLE GALLON was $2.65 in March of 2003. Even if you take the most advantageous data points possible for your argument, the price hasn't even increased by 50%.

You are wrong.

[venikk]

Ok, here, I've found it. The price of a gallon of milk from 1999-current, by month. I can't link direct but it's easy enough to follow.

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ap

Enjoy.

And YOU brought up the price of milk, so we're going to talk about the price of milk until you admit you were wrong or you get banned again. I'm on an iPad, can someone create and screenshot the chart into this thread so it's as plain as the eye can see please?

This data is from the very institution I have been saying is wrong.

For example, look at their beef and gasoline prices, then compare them to the spot futures here.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commoditie...eef&months=180

They don't look anything alike at all.

What's happening here is either a lack of random sampling by the BLS, or maybe even these are priced in 2012 dollars like so many charts - which hide the inflation to a degree.

[archibaldcrane]

Holy fuck lol.

[Qalbert]

SWINE FLU

[archibaldcrane]

Anyone got a time machine? We gotta rush this nigga to 1999 with two American dollars and find out if it'll buy him a gallon of milk, stat.

[venikk]

Anyone got a time machine? We gotta rush this nigga to 1999 with two American dollars and find out if it'll buy him a gallon of milk, stat.

We know for sure I could have gotten 2 gallons of gasoline. I'd rather have that.

[archibaldcrane]

So do you admit you are wrong about milk price inflation?

[venikk]

So do you admit you are wrong about milk price inflation?

Hell no.

BLS is the institution that "calculates" CPI. Their word means nothing to me. Since when is a spot market not the most accurate estimation of value of a commodity? Anything else is useless compared to the spot market in determining value.

If their CPI is wrong, the prices that derive their CPI are wrong.

[archibaldcrane]

Hell no.

THEN WE MUST CONTINUE!

[venikk]

lol

[venikk]

Here's a nice chart.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commoditie...dex&months=180

This is the real CPI the commodity price index. Up 221% since 2000 highs. Way higher from 98 lows.

[archibaldcrane]

Futures are not the same as real goods. Stop it.

[venikk]

Futures are not the same as real goods. Stop it.

The point isn't "real goods" it's "real value" Which is what the spot market's purpose is.

Like I said the only difference between real value and "real prices" is the lag time, transportation costs, consumer spending/demand, credit, interest rates, economy. In the spot market it's just the dollar and the good, no extraordinary factors. That is why it's more volatile.

From a scientific perspective "real prices" don't determine value of the commodity, but commodity value + location + timing + consumer convienience + etc..