Although i don't think this thread will produce much discussion, i am at least going to make a thread to give people some information on what's going on when they see any news talking about Puerto Rico supposedly asking to be the 51st state. First i'll post this opinion piece to get some things out of the way (article not quoted in its entirety):
On the first of two ballot questions yesterday, 54 percent voted to change its current status from a United States commonwealth. The problem is that those 54 percent are divided among statehood, independence, and a third option.http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Ameri...-51st-US-stateOn the second question about what alternative should be chosen, 61 percent chose statehood, 33 percent chose "sovereign free association" and 6 percent chose independence. However, one third of the voters who answered the first question didn't bother answering the second question, meaning none of the options reached a majority.
The problem with the way the plebiscite was designed, was that the first question basically set up those who support the current status, commonwealth, versus those who are opposed against the current status, which includes Statehood, independence or any other form of status. Because commonwealth and statehood have, in recent decades, been neck and neck, adding just a few more votes in any direction tips the scales. For example:
Then on the second question, after having eliminated the commonwealth from the equation, you then get statehood with a clear advantage, since commonwealth was it's only real competition for votes. This was intentional, as the plebiscite was designed by the pro statehood party, the New Progressive Party (NPP), without participation from the commonwealth party, the Popular Democratic Party (PDP). The PDP, in a form for protest, asked voters to answer yes on the first question, and then leave the second question blank. This is why you have a lot of blank second questions. There is some confusion, as some PDP voters still voted for one of the options on the second question, which is called free association. Unfortunately free assocaited state is not the same thing as a commonwealth, and the leadership of the PDP does not formally support free association, although some members do.
Adding to the confusion, on november 6's elections, the NPP was defeated in all major races, including governorship, both chambers of the legislature, and in the mayoral race for the capital. This led to a result where the statehood party lost on all fronts, but the statehood option won the plebiscite. The new governing party, the PDP considers the plebiscites results illegitimate, drawing uncertainty over whether the results will be presented to Congress. However, while the NPP governor lost the race, his resident comisioner won his election (think of the resident comisioner as a prime minister for foreign relations, but instead he acts as a representative of the colony in Congress, but he has no vote). The statehood party (NPP) resident comisioner won reelection, and he insists that the plebiscite's results must be presented to the president and the Congress.
So in sum, what the plebiscite does say is that a slim majority of puerto ricans are displeased with the current status, but that slim majority is further divided into three options. The largest of those three options is statehood, but if you were to compare it to the population in its entirety, it may or may not be a majority, depending on whether that historical 46% has increased in the last few years or not.
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