U.S. Fiscal Cliff

[Callisto]

I wonder if there's any Vegas bookies that will give me odds on what ends first before the fiscal cliff or the hockey lockout

[archibaldcrane]

I wouldn't put money on it juuuust yet.
There is still a slight chance of some shady as fuck backroom deal happening between the 27th and 31st.

I doubt it, tea partiers aren't going to vote for any tax increases period.

Alternately, a miracle happens and a few dozen sane house republicans break ranks and defect to the dems. It's not a perfect moment for it, but the situation bumps the chances from none to slim.

I think this is much more likely - that some republicans will be like "these tea party niggas are fucking insane, do they not realize we're looking at huge tax increases AND huge military cuts?"

[archibaldcrane]

I still think we're going over though.

[quannum]

I hope we do, but don't think it will happen
the washington generals are trying their hardest to make the flop look believable. There's just no impetus for either side to do anything anytime before they absolutely have to.

[Mazmaz]

Hoping for going over the cliff is juvenile as shit. Wanting the country to plunge into recession, causing other countries to also go into recession and affect the whole world economy, just so your party can score political points is honestly disgusting to me and no better than when the republicans held the debt ceiling hostage.

[Correction]

You realize that it's been Republican intransigence that has carried us this far right?

[Blubbartron]

Hoping for going over the cliff is juvenile as shit. Wanting the country to plunge into recession, causing other countries to also go into recession and affect the whole world economy, just so your party can score political points is honestly disgusting to me and no better than when the republicans held the debt ceiling hostage.

Is 2.5% really that much of a doomsday issue? It will slow the economy a bit, sure, but a full-blown recession? It doesn't exactly strike me as likely. Then again, economics is pretty much the worst pseudo-science there is. You may as well read tarot cards if you want to know how X change will affect things.

[archibaldcrane]

Hoping for going over the cliff is juvenile as shit. Wanting the country to plunge into recession, causing other countries to also go into recession and affect the whole world economy, just so your party can score political points is honestly disgusting to me and no better than when the republicans held the debt ceiling hostage.

I don't hope we plunge off and then stay there, all tax hikes and spending cuts in place. You realize that the "Fiscal cliff" could exist for a whopping 1 day when congress gets back into session in January right?

But if it's between extending all the bush tax cuts+gutting social security+medicare+unemployment compensation+etcetcetc vs. the cliff? Bring on the motherfucking cliff. If republicans refuse to allow any bush tax cuts to expire, fuck them sideways. Democrats yielding a ton of power in the aftermath is just a bonus. Come January 3rd we have a new slimmer Republican majority in the house that should be easier to trim votes from.

[kuronosan]

Yea, not sure why anyone thinks going over the cliff is the end of the world. It just means we get a chance at a new deal instead of more negotiating.

[Mazmaz]

Because I don't want my country to go into recession because your country can't get its shit together. When you're looking at the deals, you're looking at all the entitlements that would be tampered with, but there's obviously other factors that will be affected. Remember when the debt ceiling crisis was going on and the stock markets were in deep red? You can't expect worse results if we go over the cliff. There's things like investor confidence, jobs, trading, etc. that will be affected that can't be fixed with legislation.

[Gryffes]

Yea, not sure why anyone thinks going over the cliff is the end of the world. It just means we get a chance at a new deal instead of more negotiating.

Also the most realistic defence spending cuts you'll ever get.

[archibaldcrane]

Because I don't want my country to go into recession because your country can't get its shit together. When you're looking at the deals, you're looking at all the entitlements that would be tampered with, but there's obviously other factors that will be affected. Remember when the debt ceiling crisis was going on and the stock markets were in deep red? You can't expect worse results if we go over the cliff. There's things like investor confidence, jobs, trading, etc. that will be affected that can't be fixed with legislation.

You're an idiot. A week of gradually slashed spending and higher taxes aren't going to send the economy into a freefall. "Investor confidence, jobs, trading, etc." can absolutely be fixed with legislation. Legislation is all the fiscal cliff is!

[Ksandra]

Because I don't want my country to go into recession because your country can't get its shit together.

Canada: Forever surviving by sucking on America's penis.


Seriously, ultimately this will make our economy better in time because we can start from scratch instead of trying to sort out the tax cut mess. Trying to say "pity canada" is just all kinds of fail.

[RKenshin]

Hoping for going over the cliff is juvenile as shit. Wanting the country to plunge into recession, causing other countries to also go into recession and affect the whole world economy, just so your party can score political points is honestly disgusting to me and no better than when the republicans held the debt ceiling hostage.

I'm pretty sure there are plenty of people that wouldn't mind seeing us go over the fiscal cliff for reasons completely unrelated to whether it 'scores political points for your party.'

Personally, the only part of me that doesn't want to go over the fiscal cliff is the greedy part that would rather have an extra $2.1k in my pocket next year. But that won't be the end of the world.

In reality, even if it does result in a short recession, it is probably one of the best fiscal paths we could take in the long-term (since Congress is all but useless in passing an effective spending budget/tax plan). We would never be able to pass any bill with the any one of the military cuts, broader cuts, and/or tax increases (much less all of them together) otherwise.

[Mazmaz]

So you believe that Congress can't come together to compromise to avoid fiscal cliff, but after the cliff, they'll come together and undo some of the damage in the form of uncutting the spending and lowering the taxes?

[kuronosan]

Pretty much.

[Dotsudoku]

I don't see how this doesn't make sense to you



Where we are(A) <--------------------------------------------------------> Goal <-----------------------------------> Cliff(B)




Backtracking from A to Goal is fucking impossible at the moment, while giving in to a few things that both parties want to some degree from point B makes getting to Goal infinitely more feasible

[Mazmaz]

And if that doesn't happen? If teabaggers are political suicide bombers?

[Dotsudoku]

Well we're talking about starting from a place where (I think) most democrats want the upper incomers to be, and at a relatively unfavorable place for middle incomers. Similarly for medicare, etc.(again, I think?). So discussion will consist of "all those in favor of a tax reduction on the middle class?", at which point house republicans will either do the right thing or have themselves replaced next time around. Win-win.

[Mazmaz]

Ok, but I believe the "next time around" is 2 years from now.