After the Jaguars let Mike Mularkey go, there were eight teams looking for coaches this off-season. Philly, Chicago, Arizona, Jacksonville, and San Diego are still without a head boss. The bad news is the hot college prospects, Nick Saban and Kellys Brian and Chip, look to be staying put for now, although teams are still talking to Brian Kelly. Andy Reid is settling in with the Chiefs, and I can't wait to see him look like a giant ripened tomato on the sidelines of Arrowhead. If there is one stat Reid is almost sure to improve upon, it's the murder-suicide rate. Doug Marrone left Syracuse after four seasons and a 25-25 record (and two Pinstripe Bowl wins!) to take over the Bills. Going 11-17 in the BIG EAST is the kind of success Buffalo demands. He's an offensive guy, so here's hoping he feeds Fred Jackson SPILLER. And finally, we have Ohio's native son Rob Chudzinski as Cleveland's new head coach. Check out Chudz's murderface:
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He was offensive coordinator for the Browns in 2007-08, and in his first season they were 8th in scoring en route to a 10-6 record, with Jamal Lewis in the backfield and Derek motherfucking Anderson under center. The following year was not as rosy, as he cycled through four different quarterbacks (Anderson, Quinn, Gradkowski, and Ken Dorsey oh God are you fucking kidding me with Ken Dorsey) as the offense finished 30th in the league. For the last two seasons Chudz ran the Panthers offense, who had the greatest quarterback prospect possibly ever, and in 2012 they finished 18th in points, 12th in yards, and 10th in offensive DVOA. To make matters worse, he's bringing in his old pal Norv Turner to be offensive coordinator. I hope he brings some 7 FOOT tall receivers with him. Just imagine what these two titans of offensive coaching will be able to do with WEEDEN. Or Hee-Haw. Or maybe some terrible rookie or free agent quarterback. One can only hope.
Last week
M/L: 3-1
ATS: 3-1
Overall
M/L: 167-92-1
ATS: 129-123-8
SATURDAY, JANUARY 12TH
4:30pm EST, CBS
Baltimore at Denver (-8.5) - If you just look at the scoreboard, it would seem that Baltimore easily dispatched with the Colts last week. But it was a close game until about nine minutes left in the 4th. Both teams were able to move the ball pretty easily, but the difference was elite quarterback Joe Flacco converting red zone trips into two touchdowns in the 2nd half. He had help not from usual suspects Ray Rice and Torrey Smith, but rather Bernard Pierce and Anquan Boldin, who both displayed the physicality needed in a tough playoff game. They will need more of it tomorrow, as Denver's defense is much tougher than Indy's. They also have to contend with everyone's favorite archvillain, the Tyrannical Touchdown Tosser.
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I assumed giving Denver a bye would be bad news for the rest of the AFC. But the Colts were 1-3 with Manning in the divisional round after getting a wild card week bye. I'm not sure that's relevant here however, since the Broncos receivers and defense might be the best he's ever had to work with. In a related story, my man-crush on DEMARYIUS is reaching unhealthy levels. I think Denver should win easily, but I don't want to assume Flacco goes in the tank, and I also think Ray Lewis still inspires Ballmurr to play over its head a bit. Broncos win, Ravens with the points.
8:00pm EST, FOX
Green Bay at San Francisco (-3) - Green Bay didn't disappoint last week. ARodg was his usual efficient self and the defense caused two Joe Webb turnovers and got one more on a muffed punt, all in the 2nd half, as they rolled Minnesota. They still don't have a run game, but DuJuan Harris was a factor catching balls out of the backfield. San Francisco will need to plan for this new wrinkle, and although Smiths Aldon and Justin, corner Tarell Brown, and safety Dashon Goldson were all limited in practice, they should play and make an impact. The real question is how Colin Kaepernick will play. Jim Harbaugh made the change in week 11, and while the '9ers are 5-2 with him as the starter, they were 6-2-1 with Alex Smith, and Smith has a better passer rating. But while Smith is merely a mobile quarterback, Kaepernick is a real rushing threat. I think the Pack will struggle to keep contain while covering everyone down the field. As much faith as I have in Rodgers, I think playing on the road will be a big disadvantage here. Of course, it wouldn't surprise me to see him throw three or four touchdowns either. But put me down for the 49ers to win and cover.
SUNDAY, JANUARY 13TH
1:00pm EST, FOX
Seattle at Atlanta (-2.5) - The DVOA mismatch of the week. Seattle isn't getting enough credit for their win last week. The story was Bob Triple's injury (and rightly so) but Seattle had the game on lockdown after a slow 1st quarter. They quietly went about their business, picking up third downs, getting stops and turnovers, and feeding Marshawn Lynch down the stretch. To assume a fully healthy King Robert the Third would have continued mowing them down is a bit naive. Combating Atlanta's offense will be an entirely different animal though, as they go from the dual threat quarterback and bruising tailback of Washington to a massively talented receiving corps and a passer with all the mobility of a microphone stand. Losing Chris Clemons will hurt, and add to the pressure on Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner to cover Roddy and JULIO. Looking back at the mid-season threads, we were talking about Matt Ryan for MVP. Welp, that didn't last long. He did finish with career-best marks in passer rating, yards, and touchdowns, but he was overshadowed by Adrian Deterson in the NFC. He and the rest of the Falcons have a lot of history to overcome, as they have gone one-and-done in three of the last four seasons. And of course we all remember
(Although as Mossy was quick to point out, that was under former OC and once again unemployed Mike Mularkey and not Dirk Koetter.) This is a tough game to pick, since it's hard to go with Seattle on the road two weeks in a row, but I genuinely think they're the better team. I'll go with my boy JULIO for a monster game as Browner tries to shake off his suspension rust. Falcons win and cover.
4:30pm EST, CBS
Houston at New England (-9.5) - Well, good job Houston, I guess. You're about to waste one of the greatest individual defensive seasons we've ever seen by losing in the divisional round because you continue to employ Matt Schaub. Despite an elite tailback, a very good #1 receiver, and studs along the offensive line, the Texans were 16th in offensive DVOA despite superficially good stats. How they move the ball and convert in the red zone will be crucial, because they're going to need a shootout to beat New England. There's absolutely no reason to think Tom Brady and the rest of the offense won't keep firing on all cylinders into the postseason. They were the best offense in football by a wide margin, and with Aaron Hernandez and GRONK on the mend, they present a lot of matchup challenges. I think this one will be something of a laugher. Patriots win and cover.
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