Stock trading

[Brill Weave]

My wife recently lost her job (laid off) and we're looking to roll over her 401k somewhere.

I've had a few people recommend Vanguard; do any of you have any recommendations for set-it-and-forget-it aside from the few pieces of advice above?

My work runs their 401k through Vanguard. I have nothing but positive things to say. They do a fantastic job(as of so far.) You can definitely do a lot worse out there.

[Tweek]

http://wondermark.com/c/2013-03-12-920prove.gif

i hope your "rule" isn't just based on facebook

Spoiler: show

2013 IPOs with gains over 10%
XONE
NCLH
APAM
I
BFAM
AVIV
STML
FWM
ENTA
CMRX
BCC
SEAS
RALY
ZTS
INSY
PF
AFH
CYNI
VOYA
USAC
CVRR
TAM
XOOM
CONE
CGIX
MODN
TTPH
TMHC
Q
SXCP
TSC
WSTC
PFSI
LAND
IBTX
KNOP

I only see 8 IPOs from 2013 with gains of -10% or worse from the list I saw

in 2012 I see 34 IPOs with gains of -10% or worse but 66 IPOs with gains over +10%

I'm not going to pretend to be a day trader but I only recalled a handful of bad IPOs the past year or so the biggest name of course being FB which imo only fucking idiots saw as a viable investment to begin with

[Skyylya]

I work for a trading software company. It's funny reading this thread and seeing people say all the same things that the people I sell our software too every day say and show them how ineffective what they do is.


Index funds, bonds, mutual funds are all a thing of the past and you'll just make your broker rich. If you want to trade and actually make some money your best bet is to short term swing/position trade stocks, options, or my personal favorite Forex.

The software that my company sells is unbelievable and if used properly with some common sense you can do some amazing things.

@ dolmen, since I'm in sales and sell our software every day I don't really want to do that here. But our software has been on the right side of Apple since it topped out last summer. Even in just the last month or so we have 3 trades on it for a little over 100$ profit per share. Google has been unbelievable too if you trade high priced stocks. Since last July we've predicted moves with about 500$ profit per share.

[Dryr]

got TSLA @ IPO

So, you sat on a 30% loss for over a year and now made about 20%?


I don't trade often, but my recent picks were sprint (90% gain when sold, could have done better but I sold 6 mo ago), Netflix (sold about 70% up, could have been over 100% if I sold now), AMD (up 100% now, holding out for xbox announcement to sell) and FNMA (making baller profits and I expect it to double, again, in price by this quarters results).

[Ragns]

I work for a trading software company. It's funny reading this thread and seeing people say all the same things that the people I sell our software too every day say and show them how ineffective what they do is.


Index funds, bonds, mutual funds are all a thing of the past and you'll just make your broker rich. If you want to trade and actually make some money your best bet is to short term swing/position trade stocks, options, or my personal favorite Forex.

The software that my company sells is unbelievable and if used properly with some common sense you can do some amazing things.

For a sec I thought a spammer got in.

[Dryr]

My work runs their 401k through Vanguard. I have nothing but positive things to say. They do a fantastic job(as of so far.) You can definitely do a lot worse out there.

I just saw a PBS special on the business of 401ks. Apparently, the investor takes all the risk for about 30% of the profits due to all of the fees (that are very misleading when you sign up).

I contribute the maximum 100% matching funds allowed with my company, but not the max. I find it much more reasonable to use a tdameritrade account that has no fees (unlike other etrade sites) other than $10/trade and buy the same stocks myself.

[Skyylya]

For a sec I thought a spammer got in.

Not sure what you mean by that, don't think I've been guilty of spamming in the 8 years since I joined BG?

Just posting my thoughts. I speak to hundreds of traders a week and have heard every convoluted idea possible on how to trade the markets. Most people have things completely ass backwards to be honest and still think the markets behave like they did 30 years ago, and it's no wonder 80-90% of all people that trade lose money.

It makes me scratch my head every day when someone tells me they buy a stock because they like the products they make, like it has much to do with what the share price does outside of the one day every 3 months a company reports earnings.


I guess to keep things more on topic for your thread. I personally trade Forex, it's more liquid and with the leverage you can make a lot more money without having to put much up yourself. Stocks are too slow for me and I like being able to trade at night as well if I can't sleep.

[Ragns]

Not sure what you mean by that, don't think I've been guilty of spamming in the 8 years since I joined BG?

Guess you don't see what kind of crap admin/mods nuke every day which always sound like "I have discovered this awesome thing to make money now go buy my stuff". It almost becomes an habit to ban someone when seeing a few keywords until you realize the guy has over 1k post.

Anyway about people doing stupid moves, I hang on a few crazy french Canadian investing forums (Yeah the Ratatapa kind of crowd) and I see so many of them just jumping on everything that broke their 52-weeks highs disregarding any kind of momentum data. Then they're the firsts to QQ when they sell the same stock at 50% loss AKA the buy high, sell low strategy.

[Tweek]

So, you sat on a 30% loss for over a year and now made about 20%?


I don't trade often, but my recent picks were sprint (90% gain when sold, could have done better but I sold 6 mo ago), Netflix (sold about 70% up, could have been over 100% if I sold now), AMD (up 100% now, holding out for xbox announcement to sell) and FNMA (making baller profits and I expect it to double, again, in price by this quarters results).

I bought at ~$17 a share your math is way off. I was never at a loss.

I got almost double my investment back last week selling a third of my shares at $90 and the other two thirds is now play money

[Skyylya]

Guess you don't see what kind of crap admin/mods nuke every day which always sound like "I have discovered this awesome thing to make money now go buy my stuff". It almost becomes an habit to ban someone when seeing a few keywords until you realize the guy has over 1k post.

Anyway about people doing stupid moves, I hang on a few crazy french Canadian investing forums (Yeah the Ratatapa kind of crowd) and I see so many of them just jumping on everything that broke their 52-weeks highs disregarding any kind of momentum data. Then they're the firsts to QQ when they sell the same stock at 50% loss AKA the buy high, sell low strategy.

Oh haha, I guess that makes sense. I was just trying to qualify that I work someone in the industry. I wouldn't name, or advertise my company on the forums.

I had one prospect who did something called the o'neil theory which was basically doing just that. Looking for stocks about to break their 52 week high and then buying them. I asked why he wouldn't want to get in them on the way up and he didn't really understand what I was asking so it was a short conversation.

There's all kinds of hokey things out there, but people need something to get them to make decisions. A lot of peoples failures can be based on just a poor ability to make decisions and stand behind them.

[Skjie]

Take your knowledge of your industry and invest in products/ideas that you see breaking through. Do not invest on someone else's idea of what is a good thing - you are either too late or won't know when to get off.

[Drex]

Weird times. Deflationary pressures are high; even gold is falling off as people realize the inflation expected from QE isn't coming yet. All of the money flowed into assets (gold, stocks, bonds) and unwinding debt, which confirms what most of us already know (the economy hasn't changed much since 08), which means there is nothing propping up the market except stupidity. But, stupidity can hold it up for a long time and people are still insanely risk averse (all the money is slowly flowing from good bonds to junk bonds, still a lot of money out there that could go to stocks).

Ford and Wells Fargo are comfy as fuck, people are starting to get interested in stocks again so FactSet is a good pickup, Bed Bath & Beyond has been one of my favorite companies since Linens N Things went bankrupt and the housing market recovery should spill over into it, and I know people will hate me for saying this but JPMorgan is strong for a bank and is even due for a nice one-off if/when Dimon is forced out.

Do your own research blah blah.

Markets are efficient

lol

[Daydreamer]

I don't know jack about stocks, but I do remember saying to myself about a month ago I should invest in AMD because of the xbox 720 ps4 deal they got. It was about 2.50 a share then and is 4$ now. I'm kicking myself for not pulling the trigger. I have a feeling it'll go up again soon too.

[Dryr]

I don't know jack about stocks, but I do remember saying to myself about a month ago I should invest in AMD because of the xbox 720 ps4 deal they got. It was about 2.50 a share then and is 4$ now. I'm kicking myself for not pulling the trigger. I have a feeling it'll go up again soon too.

If you want to catch the next ride from xbox, put some $$ into Nokia if you can spare it for a year. That should at least double by next summer with the xbox integration demand along with their increasingly appealing phones.

[Dryr]

I bought at ~$17 a share your math is way off. I was never at a loss.

I got almost double my investment back last week selling a third of my shares at $90 and the other two thirds is now play money

My bad. I saw a documentary on the company and I thought it showed the IPO around $78. Maybe that's what it was when I checked the current price after watching it XD

P.S. The guy that created Paypal runs the company

[Kurokikaze]

I had one prospect who did something called the o'neil theory which was basically doing just that. Looking for stocks about to break their 52 week high and then buying them. I asked why he wouldn't want to get in them on the way up and he didn't really understand what I was asking so it was a short conversation.

It's funny cause I was taught to do this. Usually when a stock is about to break it's 52 week high it'll pop for a bit so you can get in and out relatively fast and make pennies on the dollar (adds up with high volume). The same for resistance/support (which I used 20/50/200 day moving average to gauge). Obviously this is strictly for day trading.

The only thing I've held long was Square Enix's JP stock which I'm upset I'm not holding anymore... I got out with profit but it's currently waaaay past my sell.

[Wulfgang]

I work for a trading software company. It's funny reading this thread and seeing people say all the same things that the people I sell our software too every day say and show them how ineffective what they do is.


Index funds, bonds, mutual funds are all a thing of the past and you'll just make your broker rich. If you want to trade and actually make some money your best bet is to short term swing/position trade stocks, options, or my personal favorite Forex.

The software that my company sells is unbelievable and if used properly with some common sense you can do some amazing things.

@ dolmen, since I'm in sales and sell our software every day I don't really want to do that here. But our software has been on the right side of Apple since it topped out last summer. Even in just the last month or so we have 3 trades on it for a little over 100$ profit per share. Google has been unbelievable too if you trade high priced stocks. Since last July we've predicted moves with about 500$ profit per share.

Short-term trading on options / forex for a guy looking to invest his retirement / savings prudently? That is just about the worst idea I've ever heard.

Ragns, unless you're 50+, follow a traditional asset allocation strategy for your age and sit on it; if you're young, you can be more aggressive in equities in terms of overall allocation and strategy (e.g. emerging markets). There are dozens of strong index-based ETFs that will offer you the required diversity with a marginal fee load. In the long run, a broad index based equities strategy will beat individual stock picking / similar narrow strategies; you are not Steve Cohen. Consider shifting your equity strategy to incorporate more risk, but not by stock picking. Also, if you have extra money, you should be maxing your IRAs (Roth or traditional) and 401(k) before doing anything else.

If you have some cash on the side that you'd like to have fun with, go for it, but I would not go crazy.

[Tweek]

Take your knowledge of your industry and invest in products/ideas that you see breaking through. Do not invest on someone else's idea of what is a good thing - you are either too late or won't know when to get off.

Short-term trading on options / forex for a guy looking to invest his retirement / savings prudently? That is just about the worst idea I've ever heard.

Ragns, unless you're 50+, follow a traditional asset allocation strategy for your age and sit on it; if you're young, you can be more aggressive in equities in terms of overall allocation and strategy (e.g. emerging markets). There are dozens of strong index-based ETFs that will offer you the required diversity with a marginal fee load. In the long run, a broad index based equities strategy will beat individual stock picking / similar narrow strategies; you are not Steve Cohen. Consider shifting your equity strategy to incorporate more risk, but not by stock picking. Also, if you have extra money, you should be maxing your IRAs (Roth or traditional) and 401(k) before doing anything else.

If you have some cash on the side that you'd like to have fun with, go for it, but I would not go crazy.

both of these guys speak the truth. sure the risk takers are the only ones who strike rich but being conservative with my retirement plan from my early 20s until I retire should leave my wife and I in a great position.

For the last 10 years I've been saving and putting money into my 401k I've only ever had a loss one year, I think it was like 5% or some shit. I had already saved up and bought my house I was still young and stupid I felt panicked I was like why do I keep throwing money into my 401k every month I just keep losing money. I called my adviser and asked if I should contribute less while the maket is coming down he laughed a bit at me and told me that was the time to increase my contributions and or get more aggressive. The next year my Personal Rate of Return from the 401k was over 30% iirc, it well made up for the year before and then some I only wish I had more money back then invested.

My bad. I saw a documentary on the company and I thought it showed the IPO around $78. Maybe that's what it was when I checked the current price after watching it XD

P.S. The guy that created Paypal runs the company

no worries, I was wondering what the hell you could have been talking about and yep I know all about the company they're a customer of ours and 2 people at my small company (<100) already own model s cars

[Skyylya]

Short-term trading on options / forex for a guy looking to invest his retirement / savings prudently? That is just about the worst idea I've ever heard.

Ragns, unless you're 50+, follow a traditional asset allocation strategy for your age and sit on it; if you're young, you can be more aggressive in equities in terms of overall allocation and strategy (e.g. emerging markets). There are dozens of strong index-based ETFs that will offer you the required diversity with a marginal fee load. In the long run, a broad index based equities strategy will beat individual stock picking / similar narrow strategies; you are not Steve Cohen. Consider shifting your equity strategy to incorporate more risk, but not by stock picking. Also, if you have extra money, you should be maxing your IRAs (Roth or traditional) and 401(k) before doing anything else.

If you have some cash on the side that you'd like to have fun with, go for it, but I would not go crazy.

Just because you aren't capable of doing it successfully doesn't mean it's the worst idea ever. I make anywhere from 5-15% a day trading forex. Long term index funds are a thing of the past, this isn't the 60s and 70s anymore where markets see continuous growth. They rise then fall, rise then fall and your long term investment strategies are a waste of time. You'll be up 2-3 months, then down 2-3 months, then up 2-3 etc.. etc.. but in the end probably break even or do slightly better than that until the next crash when all of your years of growth are wiped out.

The markets will crash again, don't trust your savings to antiquated investment strategies that financial advisers still try to sell you are effective in today's markets. They only spoon feed that crap because if they didn't, they'd be out of a job.



Edit: And before I leave for work because I know how much you folks like to take things to the extreme and run with them.

Right now I only keep about 1k in my forex account and don't trade every day, I trade when I know the probability is high for me which is right now only 2 days a week. I only look to make about 100-200$ a week right now which is pretty easy. I'm not saying I make thousands a week when I say 5-15% and yes I have losing trades but when the dust settles I come out ahead. In the future when it's time for me to leave my company and I'm allowed to purchase our software I will be doing substantially more. Right now their policy is to not let us purchase the software for home use and I'm not stupid enough to try and trade too much without it.

As I said to Ragns I'm not going to advertise for my company but if anyone wants to see how to really make money PM me and maybe i'll give you some time while I'm at work to show you. I am in sales after all so won't waste too much time but I'd be happy to give you some info that you can do whatever you want with.

[Tweek]

kool-aid