Stock trading

[archibaldcrane]

Think I'm going to get out of my Tsla position shortly. Bought in at 37, don't see a huge move upwards on the horizon now that the shorts are squeezed out and its at 90.

[Tweek]

imo it's over valued a bit right now, I sold mine but I will buy back with my profits if it drops down again soon which I think it will. The reason I think it's over valued right now is how they are able to pay off the loans and show the profit based on selling zero emission credits to other companies. I think it has potential to keep going up though long term over the next few years especially after the model x when they get closer to producing the BlueStar

[Dryr]

imo it's over valued a bit right now, I sold mine but I will buy back with my profits if it drops down again soon which I think it will. The reason I think it's over valued right now is how they are able to pay off the loans and show the profit based on selling zero emission credits to other companies. I think it has potential to keep going up though long term over the next few years especially after the model x when they get closer to producing the BlueStar

The Model S looks even better than European luxury sedans. All they need to do is make them faster, allowing wider distribution, to keep succeeding. How long is the wait these days?

I looked into Forex trading. My trading site said something about requiring a minimum of 1000 units to not charge a commission? Pff...

Tossed the $$ into some NOK instead.

[Tweek]

you think the model S needs to be faster? what do you mean they have amazing acceleration speed on the 85kW model they can do 0-60 in 4.2 seconds and a lot of people say that's a conservative number and have seen 3.9 seconds which is on par with a M6. I ask what you mean cause maybe you meant top speed? Personally I think what they really need to do is tone back the cars amazing performance cause most people don't need that much speed and translate it into longer range that in addition to offering lower price models like the bluestar plan so they can get more of these cars in American's hands

[archibaldcrane]

Lol whoosh

[archibaldcrane]

To answer the question, its between 2-3 months from order to delivery for the US.

[Tweek]

rofl wow.. i just read it again... yes they need to make them more quickly i was like wow wtf would they need them even faster


last i saw they're pumping out about 500 a week. a friend of mine ordered in November and got it last week, another friend of mine ordered before then and ended up getting it sooner than originally estimated

[Skyylya]

The Model S looks even better than European luxury sedans. All they need to do is make them faster, allowing wider distribution, to keep succeeding. How long is the wait these days?

I looked into Forex trading. My trading site said something about requiring a minimum of 1000 units to not charge a commission? Pff...

Tossed the $$ into some NOK instead.

Forex is traded on margin. 1000 units is the smallest lotsize you cantrade whichis $0.10 per pip. A pip is the standard of movement like shaeres are measured in dollars and cents.

A standard lot is 100k units and with 50:1 leverage takes about 2-2.5k$ margin and moves @ 10$ per pip. Mostcurrencies move 50-150 pips per day. You can also trade a mini lot of 10,000 units which is a 200-250 margin and 1$ per pip +/- which is what I trade right now.

So assuming you trade 1-3 mini lots (10k units) a day making 20-30 pips is pretty easy.

Its also a 24 hour market so I cantrade any timeof day from sun-fri.





Im also curious, call it market research, what effect you think a companies products actually have to do with a stock share price?. do you really thi nk the daily price action has anything to do with whatthey produce?

if so, how do you explain apples stock dropping 200$ per share while they contninue to generatebillions inrevenue and beat earnings or google soaring over900$ whenthey,miss earnings?. sorry for punctuation im inbed onmy tablet.

[Drex]

50:1 leverage

Horrible idea for just about anyone, even in forex. I get you're a sales dude but let's be real, no.

[Skyylya]

Horrible idea for just about anyone, even in forex. I get you're a sales dude but let's be real, no.

Spoken like someone who knows nothing of forex or futures trading. Imnot selling you a product but explaining the movement. There is nomore risk inleveraged trades as non leveraged trades if you make good decisions. People lose plenty of mponey in1:1 stock trading.

[archibaldcrane]

Lol, the Model S outsold the Mustang in California in Q1 of '13.

http://www.cncda.org/publications/Ca...ring_1Q_13.pdf

[Ferion]

Index funds are completely a thing of the past. That's why almost no mutual funds can ever consistently beat the market. Not to mention hedge funds as a whole haven't had higher gains than the market in about 10 years. A 60-40 equity-bond index fund returned about 90% in the past ten years, investing in the average hedge fund would have net you roughly 17%.

[tyven]

Skyylya are you a b/d or do you sell your companies software for s living and just trade for yourself?

[archibaldcrane]

A 60-40 equity-bond index fund returned about 90% in the past ten years, investing in the average hedge fund would have net you roughly 17%.

Well, a simple index fund of the DJIA (which closed at 8601.38 on May 23rd, 2003) would be up 78% to today's 15294.

Of course, there's inflation to consider in there, but...

[Drex]

Index funds are completely a thing of the past. That's why almost no mutual funds can ever consistently beat the market. Not to mention hedge funds as a whole haven't had higher gains than the market in about 10 years. A 60-40 equity-bond index fund returned about 90% in the past ten years, investing in the average hedge fund would have net you roughly 17%.

lol, arbitrary timelines, indexes. here:

http://media.advisorone.com/advisoro...tInv_Chart.png

the real problems are two-fold:

1) the average hedge fund investor is retarded and chases trends, selling a lukewarm strategy right before it starts working and buying a burning hot strategy right before it simmers down. if you compare fund performance instead of investor returns you get the real story. HF strategies are cyclical like the markets, and just like in the markets, the sheep get slaughtered in the end.
2) hedge funds outperform in down markets because they can short. indexes get crushed because their job is to track the market, not protect your money. as anyone who understands markets knows, outperforming on the downturn is far more important, because a 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to break even.

the s&p 500, djia, etc. are abitrary samplings of stocks that do not reflect "the market". "the market" is bigger than any index. if grabbing some global indexes and a large/mid blend index and a bond index and a commodity index and a cash equivalent and blending them makes you feel like you got "the market", good on you, but it just isn't that simple.

[Dryr]

Im also curious, call it market research, what effect you think a companies products actually have to do with a stock share price?. do you really thi nk the daily price action has anything to do with whatthey produce?

if so, how do you explain apples stock dropping 200$ per share while they contninue to generatebillions inrevenue and beat earnings or google soaring over900$ whenthey,miss earnings?. sorry for punctuation im inbed onmy tablet.

I can't really watch the markets during the day. I usually buy things I'm ready to keep for 6 mo + to make a 50%+ gain. NOK is one of those companies that have a lot of potential and I think it's within 15% of the lowest it will be ever again.

FNMA was a gamble due to gov't control issues, but it now seems that people have caught on that the company is actually doing very well and is quickly paying off the loan it took after making lasting changes to it's business to prevent a repeat issue. The company is doing amazing, the stock is up ~200% this year poised to double again.

Apple has increasing competition in their market. Plus, they sit on their cash instead of paying regular dividends that everyone expected to start seeing at it's height.
Plus, Jobs is gone. Idiots (many individual investors and most portfolio managers) lost their golden idol...

Google is the future. They have so much money they donate fiber optic infrastructure to major cites... They have research programs that life-long grad students finally leave their universities to be a part of... The internet is full of ads, Google gets paid for most of them... Yadda yadd..

Again, I can't watch the ticks/pips to day trade. I've been lucky and made out quite well in all but one of my investments (broke even on my first) accepting that I'm tying up the cash for a while. I have also missed some good opportunities because I set limits too low just as a stock takes off, or sell too low/early and miss out on jumps. Considering the results, it's been fun ^^

[Skyylya]

Skyylya are you a b/d or do you sell your companies software for s living and just trade for yourself?

I sell my companies software and trade myself.

I've been at my job for 18 months now and probably gotten a 20-30 thousand dollar market education. I spend 40-45 hours a week right now staring at the markets, speaking to thousands of traders, learning about every trading strategy known to man and teaching people how to stop losing money and start making money.

Bottom line is that a share prices movement is based on whether people are buying or selling the shares and the amount of movement is based on the volume. There is basically no direct connection between a companies product and their share price. If people are buying a particular stock in large quantity the share price will rise, if people are selling the stock it will go down. The markets are mostly psychological these days and because of how global the markets become and how many people have developed shorter term trading strategies that's the reason for the increased volatility that kills long term investment strategies. People do a great job of over complicating the markets.

Trading is as simple as buying something when it's oversold and beginning an uptrend and then selling it when it becomes overbought and going to start a downtrend. When it is overbought and going to start a down trend, you short the market and make money while it goes back down. The most profitable, most successful traders find ways to identify those conditions and trade them. What our software does is apply Neural Networks to analyze the patterns and relationships between a particular item (stock/etf/forex/future) and a set of 25 other markets that are highly correlated and generate a short term prediction for whether the share price will be higher or lower short term. It's a daily prediction so every day it calculates a prediction for trend direction and overbought, oversold conditions. It also generates a prediction for the next days high/low for each item we forecast for. Not exact, but accurate enough to be extremely effective.

Most people think that 5-10% annual growth is good, and to be fair it's not like it's bad. You do better than the banks and you're not losing money, but you're also not doing anything efficient. There are people out there that do that weekly/monthly. But, 80-90% of all people trading lose money. People think that just because the markets are available anyone can do it. Public golf courses are also available and anyone can do it, but that doesn't mean you're going to be good at it.

To speak of archies post above me, yes the DJIA is up 78% over the last 10 years but 78% over 10 years is crap growth. There are individual stocks that do that in a few months and if you have the discipline to trade like that can make huge gains without significantly increasing your risk. Most traders fail because they let their emotions take over, fear and greed.

[tyven]

word, i was just wondering if you were a b/d to ask your opinion on the SEC's desire to implement a uniform fiduciary standard and how it might affect you.

[Ferion]

lol, arbitrary timelines, indexes.

It's not an arbitrary time line.. it's the last time that the average hedge fund beat a simple blend of an index fund and bonds in any given year. I didn't just randomly pick a ten year time line. If hedge funds are better in down markets then you would think that they would provide better returns once the economy starting going into a recession a couple years ago. Here you go:

http://www.economist.com/news/financ...g-decade-going

Edit: And yes I realize a blend of an S&P index fund and bonds isn't "the market" but my whole point is index funds are not a "thing of the past", especially for people looking to save long term.

[Sqwunk]

Public golf courses are also available and anyone can do it, but that doesn't mean you're going to be good at it.

This is pretty much the example I use but I usually say playing poker instead. You can learn to play poker, but would you play in a high stakes game against professionals? If not then why are you gambling in the markets against professionals who do it for a living all day long.

Thats not to say the layman can't play the markets with a little ingenuity (I'm no expert by any means) but its difficult to do when you can't spend the time on it.

In relation to something you said about how the software makes those predictions of buying when something is over sold and the price is going to start an upward trend and selling when its over bought and going to start a down trend.
One thing for people to keep in mind when you're buying a stock, unless its an outstanding share that the company sold to raise funds, then its being sold by someone and that someone has a reason for selling it. It might not be an important reason maybe they just need some extra cash. Or maybe the recognize that something might be happening soon and it's time to get out of this stock. Or in the case of what Skyylya is saying, everyone else is selling so its time to get out but that might be the start of the up trend and they're fools for selling when they are.

To answer your question if we think that a companies product has anything to do with the share price. I think it does a little bit, but only in the psychological manner you mentioned. People like to see the company doing something and nakinv new things. When I had my Principles of Investing class we had to play a fantasy investing game on Investopedia.com (which is great for people to dick around on the markets without using real money and just experience how the market works a little). We all started with $10, 000 fake dollars and the kids that did the best bought lots of Apple stock immediately, this was before Steve died and I think the iPhone 4 was going to be released soon. They all bought around $430-450/share and with a month or two it was well over 600 and their portfolios were awesome looking.

So yes I think the product has a little something to do with it but only because it gives the trader confidence that the stock is going to do well, so it sometimes does do well because of that.