ESPN and ESPN2. NFL Sunday Ticket. NBC Sports Network. CBS Sports Network. Fox Sports 1 and 2. NFL Network and NFL RedZone. All of these networks and channels are either devoted entirely to NFL football or a significant portion of their programming covers the NFL. Baseball might be America's pastime, but football is America's obsession. Add in countless football websites, and the experts and programming devoted to fantasy football, and you have an entire sub-society of America that exists only to pay homage to the NFL.
And still, it's never enough.
This week is one of the best weeks of every year. The NFL is back, and despite litigation, suspensions, and capital murder charges, we couldn't be happier. The story with the potential biggest impact on the NFL was the law suit brought by former players and subsequent settlement reached for $765 million, in which the NFL agrees to "compensate victims, pay for medical exams and underwrite research." Doomsday predictors said that if the suit were to move forward and more bad press about debilitating brain and bodily injuries came to light, current NFL fans would mistrust the league and grow to dislike the violence of the game, and not allow their children to play football at all. To that, I say, good fucking luck. The NFL is here to stay. We don't just love it. We need it. Football is the uniquely American bloodsport that is so ingrained into our culture over the last century and a half that I doubt we could ever turn it off.
It's who we are.
Yes, the NFL got out of a potentially ugly law suit by cutting a measly check. Yes, the years of abuse that these players take leave them battered and shells of their former selves, and almost no amount of compensation can really change their lives for the better. We can even invent better helmets and penalize particularly violent hits. But we love violent hits. We love the biggest, strongest, and fastest men on the planet giving everything they have from whistle to whistle, pummeling their opponents as hard as they can.
It's who we are.
And I fucking love it.
AFC East: New England
AFC North: Cincinnati
AFC South: Houston
AFC West: Denver
Wild Cards: Baltimore, Miami
NFC East: Washington
NFC North: Chicago
NFC South: Atlanta
NFC West: San Francisco
Wild Cards: Seattle, Dallas
AFC Championship: Denver over Cincinnati
NFC Championship: San Francisco over Atlanta
Super Bowl: San Francisco over Denver
Coach: Marc Trestman, Chicago
Comeback POY: Sean Lee, Dallas
Offensive POY: Tom Brady, New England
Defensive POY: J.J. Watt, Houston
Offensive ROY: Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati
Defensive ROY: Desmond Trufant, Atlanta
NFL MVP: Tom Brady, New England
Coaches Fired: Rex Ryan, Dennis Allen, Jim Schwartz, Leslie Frazier
Breggy "The Greek" 2011-12 Degenerate Gambling Record
M/L: 172-96
ATS: 138-123-7
Breggy "The Greek" 2012-13 Degenerate Gambling Record
M/L: 172-94-1
ATS: 134-124-9
I'm nothing if not consistent.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 5TH
8:30pm EDT, NBC
Baltimore at Denver (-8) - Opening night! Glad we have at least one meaningful game in prime time this week. Trophies, banners, and championship rings last forever. But everyone seems to be focusing on the players Baltimore lost after their Blackout Bowl win, and the money they threw at Joe Flacco to keep him under center until 2019. Instead of worrying about who fills in for Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Matt Birk, Anquan Boldin, Bernard Pollard, or Paul Kruger, I'm focusing on the consistency they have. A full training camp of Jim Caldwell working with Flacco, Ray Rice, and Torrey Smith should help offensive efficiency, and the defense is still loaded with talent like Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, Courtney Upshaw, and Terrence Cody. Add it newcomers Elvis Dumervil, Chris Canty, Michael Huff, and top draft pick Matt Elam, and it shouldn't take long for the defense to gel. On the other sideline, Denver will have a few new faces as well, most notably Wes Welker, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and second-round pick Montee Ball. It's hard to imagine, but at this point a year ago, many of us were unsure how Peyton Manning's surgically-repaired neck would hold up. I was optimistic, and picked them early and often as I felt Vegas was underrating their potential. This season, with the defense in shambles and their second best player suspended for six games, I feel like they're terribly overrated. I still think the Tyrannical Touchdown Tosser has a big day, thanks to their best player DEMARYIUS, but I don't see them covering that spread. Denver wins, Baltimore with the points.
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 8TH
1:00pm EDT, CBS
Miami at Cleveland (PK) - If my fantasy drafts are to be believed, not many people are buying Ryan Tannehill-to-Mike Wallace as a legitimate threat. I don't really understand why, Wallace has always been able to find the end zone, he'll get plenty of targets, and Pittsburgh's offensive woes a year ago were hardly his fault. Despite losing Jake Long, I like Miami's offensive line and I think Jonathan Martin is ready for left tackle duties. Miami should also benefit from Lamar Miller's running style and a full season of touches from him. Already possessing an above average defense, bringing in Brent Grimes and Dimitri Patterson at corner and Dannell Ellerbe to replace Karlos Dansby should make them even more stingy. Year one of the Chudzinski era begins with a soft out-of-division schedule, but Cleland hasn't won their season opener since 2004. I like the Browns defense shifting back to a 34 and moving Jabaal Sheard to OLB. With Sheard, Kruger, Quentin Groves, and a hopefully healthy Barkevious Mingo, they should be able to have a sustained edge rush. As for the offense, there are a lot of question marks, especially in the passing game. Jordan Cameron is talented but unproven and who knows how Josh Gordon will perform after his two-game suspension. Joe Thomas and Mitchell Schwartz look like rock-solid bookends, and TRENT is finally 100% (which is good because Dion Lewis and Montario Hardesty are out once again) but I just don't see many sustained drives in their future. I'll take Miami in the pick'em.
Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-7) - The Titans have made some modest additions in Bernard Pollard, Delanie Walker, Shonn Greene (!) and a revamped interior offensive line. But they're really hoping for contributions through the draft. Chance Warmack is one of several elite guard prospects this year and he will be key to opening up space for Chris Johnson. They're also hoping Jake Locker takes a big step forward and clicks with their strong receiving corps. As for Shittsburgh, I was pretty high on Le'Veon Bell, a strong runner in a great situation. But his injury and Mike Wallace's departure could spell doom for the offense. For the past few years, the offensive line has been their biggest problem, but they go into week one with four of their five starters as first- or second-round picks from the last three drafts. Now is the time for this unit to gel. On the other side of the ball, I didn't think losing James Harrison would be a big deal. Then I watched Hard Knocks. Now James Harrison haunts my dreams. Still, the defense should be solid, if the offense can ever keep them off the field. That's a big line for a game between two mediocre teams, so I'm picking the Steelers to win, Titans with the points.
New England at Buffalo (+10) - Looking at New England's depth chart, there are a ton of rookies all over the lineup. We all know about Wes Welker's new team, Brandon Lloyd's free agency, Rob Gronkowski's injury, and Aaron Hernandez fulfilling the destiny of all Florida Gators. So fantasy gurus are hoping for big things from Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson, and Zach Sudfeld. With Tom Brady, the backfield, and the offensive line all back in action, there's no reason to think this year's vintage won't produce. They're just as solid defensively, with all the major contributors back in the fold. Buffalo is a real-life team in the National Football League. They have CJ Spiller on their roster. And that's about it. Get to know Jeff Tuel, the undrafted free agent from collegiate powerhouse Washington State. He'll join the ranks of Thad Lewis and Brian Hoyer from last year's class of, "Oh yeah, he started an NFL game." The defense has some talent, and Mario Williams had a nice bounce-back campaign, but there's just not enough to like here. New England wins and covers.
Kansas City at Jacksonville (+3.5) - Remember when Alex Smith started and finished eight games for the 49ers with a 104.1 passer rating as they went 6-2? Andy Reid does, and with Smith and Jamaal Charles at his disposal, I expect the Chiefs offense to speed down the road to respectability. Defensively, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali provide the rush, and Brandon Flowers, Eric Berry, and Sean Smith have the ability to be a very good secondary. All in all I feel like KC should win six or seven games. The London Jacksonville Jaguars are also breaking in a new head coach in Gus Bradley. He's giving Blaine Gabbert the reins, which is the good long-term move. As with any potential franchise quarterback, the sooner you know if they sink or swim, the faster you can move forward. But with Justin Blackmon suspended and Cecil Shorts their only legit receiving thread, it could be a while before the Jags see any offensive improvement. They're also unproven on defense, but if Bradley can do here what he did in Seattle, the future will be bright. The present, however, sucks ass. Chiefs win and cover.
Oakland at Indianapolis (-10) - Well, Matt Flynn, you finally get your crack at running an NFL offense. Your best weapon is brittle, your wideouts are pedestrian, and the team's leading receiver from last year is now on the Giants. Congratulations! NOPE TERRELLE FUCKING PRYOR LOLOLOLOLOL. At least it will be fun seeing Charles Woodson back in silver and black. It took me a long time to believe the Colts had a good thing going last season, and even after I accepted them as a playoff team, I still didn't believe they were that great. They were -30 in point differential, -12 in turnover differential, and still had 11 wins. Expect big-time regression from them. They also lost Dwight Freeney, for what it's worth. I think they'll be in a lot of shootouts though, so buy on Andrew Luck, Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton, and maybe even Darrius Heyward-Bey while you can. Colts win, Raiders with the points.
Cincinnati at Chicago (-3) - GAME OF THE WEEK, MOTHERFUCKERS. Remember Miami on Hard Knocks last year, when it seemed like every unit was in disarray and every position up for grabs? Cincy, on the other hand, seems rock-solid all over their lineup. Obviously I love GIO and Eifert as much as the next guy, but the real offensive sleeper might be Mohamed Sanu, who should benefit from Andrew Hawkins' absence. More importantly, everyone should now know who Geno Atkins is. And just to reiterate; I am terrified of James Harrison. Chicago cleaned house in the coaching staff, but Marc Trestman is an offensive guy and I'm optimistic we'll see big years from the Bears triplets. Just as Baltimore must move on from Ray, it's time for Chicago to move past Brian Urlacher. DJ Williams and James Anderson are quite capable linebackers, and I expect another great season from the defense. If Forte, GMarsh, and Smokin' Jay all stay healthy, the playoffs are in their future. But right now I feel like Cincy is the better team. I picked Chicago almost every week last season and it didn't do them any favors, so calm down, homers. Bengals in the upset.
1:00pm EDT, FOX
Atlanta at New Orleans (-3) - Atlanta has gone 0-4 this preseason, which tells you all you need to know about how much weight to give to the preseason. They have some kinks to work out along the offensive line and in the secondary, but Steven Jackson has to be an upgrade over Michael Turner, and much of their 13-win team from last year is back and healthy. Matt Ryan got a new contract, which is just a hair cheaper than Joe Flacco's, but I'm more impressed with Atlanta's version of "bland white quarterback." They should easy repeat as division winners. I can't believe New Orleans is opening up as a favorite in this game. Does no one remember their putrid defense from last season? Rob Ryan and his 34 defense won't work without the correct personnel, and I don't see any big additions to get me excited enough to believe they can stop anybody. Don't look now, but Drew Brees is already 34 years old. I feel like N'awlins won't embrace a true rebuild while he's the signal caller, but I think they'll need it sooner rather than later. Brees could also throw for 6,000 yards en route to a 14-2 record, so who knows. But in this one I'll take the Falcons in the upset.
Tampa Bay at NY Jets (+3) - Tampa Bay burned me once in the past, when I bought into Josh Freeman as a rising star and Raheem Morris as a competent coach. Now, with Greg Schiano moving things in the right direction and Freeman still in town, I'm debating buying the Bucs once again. Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson, and Mike Williams makes for an impressive array of weapons, and the offensive line is solid. Defensively, bringing in Darrelle Revis and Dashon Goldson addresses their most urgent need, and if Revis is healthy they should improve greatly. In the other thread, Xaj pointed out that the Jets, more than any other team, just don't understand building an NFL offense. They have no weapons, literally the worst quarterback in NFL history, and their new coordinator is the man who ruined both the Lions and Eagles. They should score under ten points a game en route to an 0-16 season, complete with hilarious New York Post headlines and Rex Ryan eating a beat writer. On the bright side, Dee Milliner should be pretty good. Also, how come Rex never hired his brother? They worked together for the Cardinals way back in 1994-95, but that's it. Rob couldn't possibly do worse than your other coordinators, jerkface. Tampa Bay wins and covers.
Seattle at Carolina (+3.5) - Pete Carroll, coach of the year all years, can't catch a break (well, since the scab refs, of course). Percy Harvin and Chris Clemons, two of his best players, are going to be out again. That said, Russell Wilson really took hold of the offense after week 8 last season, and I expect big things from him going forward. And they return the best secondary in the league, with or without Adderall. (Sidenote: I think we should do an "Adderall Suspensions" prediction along with "Coaches Fired".) As for Carolina, Cam was once again Cam, and they were once again shy of being a .500 ballclub. A healthy offensive line should help matters, and with Chudz in Cleland maybe they'll find more big plays from people not named Cam. Defensively, they were quietly a pretty good unit, and although rookie defensive tackles have a pretty healthy bust rate, the hope is Star Lotulelei can add some push up front. Luke Kuechly should be a household name at this point, so don't wait until the Cats get Hard Knocks to learn about him. It's pronounced KEE-klee, and he's a beast. Another year of experience and another receiver taller than I am would help, but Carolina still seems like they're one step behind the better teams in the NFC. Seattle wins and covers.
Minnesota at Detroit (-4) - A playoff team lures a Pro Bowl receiver from a division rival? Should be a slam dunk, right? But Minny's success came via Adrian Deterson's legs, and backs who rush for 2,000 yards usually break down the next season. If anyone can buck that trend, it's AP. But a return trip to the postseason will most likely depend on Christian Ponder's maturation, and I'm not buying it. Outside of Matt Stafford-to-Calvin Johnson, Detroit was bad in pretty much every possible way. They brought in Reggie Bush to jump-start the run game until his inevitable injury, and have some new faces in a defense that allowed over 27 points per game. Will it make a difference? I doubt it, especially since I think Jim Schwartz is one of the worst in-game coaches in the league. In short, this is a game between two teams I am pretty down on, so I'll hedge and pick Detroit to win, Minny with the points.
4:25pm EDT, FOX
Arizona at St. Louis (-5.5) - Arizona's offense was really, really bad, and that's with one of the three or four most talented wide receivers in football. The hope is Carson Palmer will be a good enough placeholder until they can develop an actual quarterback, but just by being competent, Bruce Arians taking over the team, and good old "regression to the mean," the Cards should do just fine offensively. There's been some turnover on defense, but Patrick Peterson is becoming one of the premier talents in the NFL, and the front seven looks to be stout once again. I'm also pretty high on St. Louis, as Jeff Fisher has really turned things around with defense. Robert Quinn and Chris Long are great ends, and Alec Ogletree and James Laurinaitis have the ability to become a great linebacking tandem. The question for the Rams is how the offense will look in the post-SJax era, and Slingin' Sammy Bradford has the ability and receivers to stretch the field. Adding Jake Long should help keep him upright as well. I like what both of these teams are doing, but they just happen to share a division with Seattle and San Fran, so no playoffs for you! In this game, I'll take St. Louis to win and cover.
Green Bay at San Francisco (-4) - Just like last year, Green Bay and San Fran open against each other, only this time by the bay people actually want to visit. This may surprise some of you, but I wasn't particularly high on Eddie Lacy in fantasy football. Think Mark Ingram with more touches, but still in a timeshare. But since he seems to be the last man standing, he'll have plenty of opportunities. Aaron Rodgers will have to run the show without Brian Bulaga protecting him, as they'll be breaking in fourth-round pick David Bakhtiari at left tackle. But I'm expecting a healthy and productive Jordy Nelson to help bolster their passing attack. Good health could also do wonders for Clay Matthews, and he should benefit from the addition of first-round pick Datone Jones on the edge. The 49ers have been quite good for two years straight now, so I guess they're not a fluke. I always love teams built on defense, and Colin Kaepernick has a shot at leading a really explosive offense. Then Ron Jaworski had to go and say he could be one of the greatest quarterbacks ever, and now I want him to fail. Fuck you, Jaws. Once again, the problem is at receiver, and Vernon Davis didn't exactly light it up after the Kaeper took over. I'm not worried though, and I think with a full training camp and preseason of reps, Anquan Boldin and CLICK-CLACK will shine. Also keep an eye out for Jon Baldwin and Quinton Patton, because somebody is going to break out on this team. San Fran won this game on the road last year, and I think they win again here, in convincing fashion. 49ers win and cover.
8:30pm EDT, NBC
NY Giants at Dallas (-3) - OH GOOD, NFC EAST GAMES IN PRIME TIME. *shoots self in both eyeballs* It's the first week, and Jason Pierre-Paul is already questionable after off-season back surgery. Get more Subway sandwiches to Gotham, STAT! More importantly, Hakeem Nicks seems to be healthy, and he adds more to the offense than any other single player on the Giants in my opinion. Defensively they were pretty bad in terms of yardage, but managed to be above average in points allowed. I'm not sure if I think they implode this year, but bringing in Dan Connor pretty much means you're out of ideas. I would like to see a full year of Prince Amukamara, though. THIS is the year for D A L S, guys. Really. No, really. Seriously. Nevermind their 400 points allowed or their complete lack of balance offensively last season. This is it. In all seriousness, I kinda like the Cowboys this season. And it's not for the reasons everyone else does, judging by how high Dez Bryant has gone in all my drafts. Monte Kiffin (or Papa Kiffykins as I like to call him) has a knack for getting the most out of his personnel, and they have a lot of talent on defense. And I hate buying into articles like this, but everything I'm reading about Romo and the playcalling on offense has me optimistic. Plus, I think Smiles bounces back with a nice season. FUCK IT, GO D A L S! Cowboys win and cover.
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 9TH
7:10pm EDT, ESPN
Philadelphia at Washington (-3.5) - At my money league's draft, we were discussing Philly as an interesting case study in high-octane offensive college coaches taking their game to the NFL. I was the pessimist, citing Steve Spurrier as an example of clusterfuckery. But my best friend was quick to point out that Chip Kelly's focus on speed, running far more offensive plays than his opponents, would lead to a lot more plays and touches for all their skill position players. That seems like a sound strategy for fantasy football to me. In reality, it will probably get Mike Vick and LeSean McCoy killed. And Philly's defense still looks pretty shitty to me. After mocking the Redskins for trading three first-round picks to St. Louis, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong and RGIII is worth every pick and every penny. Trollmaster Dan Snyder will no doubt be lining up Lombardi Trophies in his Six Flags theme parks in no time. But since it's Philly/Washington, I have to post this:
Redskins win and cover.
10:20pm EDT, ESPN
Houston at San Diego (+4) - I think the Texans have missed their window. The offensive line isn't as dominant as it once was, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson aren't getting any younger, and Matt Schaub isn't the type of quarterback to put a mediocre team on his back and lead them to the promised land. I think they make the playoffs again, but that division is so shitty, there's really no one else to pick. San Diego could be battling the Jets as the laughing stock of the NFL this season. They brought in some interesting pieces on defense, namely Dwight Freeney and Manti Te'o, but I still think they stink. And if Schaub defines caretaker mediocrity, Phil Rivers is taking a dump is your shoes. Texans win and cover in the worst possible ending to a glorious week.
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