Do failure rates feel off to anyone else?

[zsuper]

I have three crafts to 50 and I feel like my failure rate for Alchemy crafts is extremely high, while the rate as Weaver is extremely low. Is anyone else noticing this?

For example, I was just making Natron (40 durability) with 7x Standard Touch, and not once I averaged 3 failures per craft, over 20 attempts.
Meanwhile, I did Wool Thread 44 times with Weaver, doing the same thing, and averaged less than 1 failure per craft.

This is just an example; the Wool obviously has a higher sample size, but I've been noticing the higher fail rate for Alchemy since I started leveling it.

[popsiclestix]

Which direction were you facing and what stave did you have equipped?

[zsuper]

Which direction were you facing and what stave did you have equipped?

Maybe the moon phase was wrong

[Pharaun]

Should have crafted on iceday

[miokomioko]

It took me 9 tries to meld something with a 50% success rate. I want to call shenanigans.

[Raineer]

RNG is a bitch and all, but some examples still surprise me. I've gotten multiple (3-4) instances of failing twice in a row to mine a 98% success spot. A double failure should happen 4 out of 10,000 tries (0.02^2), yet I saw it 4 times in 3 stacks of ore (300 attempts). I'm just lucky!

I did go 2/6 on Zenith Mitts +1 like 7 years ago, which would have been much less likely than my above example. SQUARE NEVER FORGETS

[Lujei]

When it comes to failure and success rates for crafts and gathering, I tend to treat this game like FFT: Subtract 20% from any non-100% percentage the game shows you and you'll end up with a more accurate value.

[CrstyCptSteveWitherspoon]

Their rates in this game are way off. Go mining for a while then tell me about how 94% means I should like, never miss almost ever, then explain to me how I frequently miss x2 in a row at 94%. Statistically it makes no sense to happen as often as it does. I could see it happening once every like 8 hours of straight mining but not once every 5 minutes.

[Ikarys]

It took me 9 tries to meld something with a 50% success rate. I want to call shenanigans.

I was flipping a quarter at my desk the other day and I got heads 8 times in a row, called shenanigans right then and there. The math is broken, guess I have to remember to put more ice-aspected toys at my workstation.

[miokomioko]

Yes, smartass. Getting heads 8 times in a row is IMPOSSSIBRUUU

[luxv]

It does seem a bit off, especially for gathering when you can't hit the broad side of a barn for 4 tries on something that is 90% but I don't know, that's just eyeballing.

It has worked on the flip side of that for me a bit too getting some nice HQ's in weaving.

[Kaelan?]

It took me 9 tries to meld something with a 50% success rate. I want to call shenanigans.

NQ'ed an item that had 96% HQ chance twice in the same day. Several tables were flipped

On the other hand, I did go 0/45 on sniper rings back in the day, so yeah. Shit happens.