2013-14 NFL Week 4: Paper, rock, ded

[Bregor]

Last week
M/L: 10-6
ATS: 9-6-1

Overall
M/L: 35-13
ATS: 25-21-2


BYE WEEK: Green Bay, Carolina


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26TH

8:30pm EDT, NFL Network

San Francisco at St. Louis (+3) - So this might be sacrilege, but I'm starting to think Colin Kaepernick might not be that great. This isn't some Leroy "he's not a good passer" bullshit, but he needs more experience with his decision-making and comfort level with his receivers. Maybe if CLICK-CLACK and Crabtree were healthy, it would be a different story. But 10 points in two weeks is pretty shitty, I don't care what defenses you're playing. Also, Aldon Smith's latest mug shot is pretty great:

Spoiler: show

http://www.csnbayarea.com/sites/csnb...s-mug-shot.jpg

How can you arrest a guy before he has his drugs coffee? As for the Rams, y'all know I love Jeff Fisher, but looking at their first three games, I'm not that impressed. Between Daryl Richardson's injury and being down early, I can't fault them for not running the ball last week. But they desperately need some balance offensively. To make matters worse, they have a short week against an extremely pissed off Jim Harbaugh. I think this one is a slugfest since I think these teams match up well, but I still like San Fran to win and cover.


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 29TH

1:00pm EDT, CBS

Cincinnati at Cleveland (+4.5) - Beating Green Bay was definitely an impressive win for Cincy, but it's easy to play defense when you only have to try on 1st and 2nd down. Then Pacman Jones had a police incident and miraculously wasn't arrested. I would say Cincy is living on borrowed time, but I think they've actually underperformed a bit so far. On the flipside, if Cleland needs Brian Hoyer to throw three TDs to win every week, they're in trouble. Although even I could pass to CAM'RON and have success. The good news is the defense is solid and will only get better as Barkevious "BARKING MAD" Mingo gets NFL reps. The Browns won this game last year, picking Dalton off three times, but it ain't happening again. Bengals win, Browns with the points.

Baltimore at Buffalo (+3.5) - Remember in the preseason when everyone was down on Ballmurr, and I said, "Not so fast my friends!" Then they got smoked by Denver, and I still said they'd be a playoff team. Two solid wins later, I will welcome anyone back on the Ravens bandwagon. Hopefully Ray Rice will be healthy this week, but even if he's not they have enough juice on defense to make up for a slow start offensively. After liking what I saw from EJ Manuel over the first two weeks, he turned in a 19-for-42 stinker against the Jets. He'll have games like that, but I still think he'll be a solid starter. I know all you fantasy jerks are hoping Spiller will be healthy, but Fred Jackson has been the better back thus far. Don't think it matters much against Baltimore's D, though. Ravens win and cover.

Pittsburgh at Minnesota (+1) - Pittsburgh needs to study the 2011 Colts to see how you reboot a franchise on the decline. The Steelers obviously have some pieces on defense and an old-ish franchise quarterback. But at 0-3 they're looking up at everyone else in the AFC outside of Jacksonville. Indy made the tough decision to jettison Peyton Manning, and so far so good. I think Roethlisberger has some good years left, but they really need to figure out if he'll be a part of the next contending Pittsburgh team. How bad does Vegas think the Vikings are to be home dogs against the 0-3 Steelers? Minny is actually 7th in the league in scoring right now, but their secondary is a sieve. Speaking of making the tough decisions about a quarterback, how much longer of a leash does Pizzaface Ponder get? Watching AR12, CUTTY, and Fat Stafford six times a year has to be tough for everyone involved. Still, Adrian Peterson will provide enough offense in this one. I love under-42, but I'll reluctantly take the Vikings in the upset.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (+8.5) - I'm gonna do a 180 on Indy, and it's not because of TRENT. I thought they'd have a below average defense, but shutting down San Francisco impressed me a lot. It could be just a one game blip, but if it's not I really like them to win the AFC South. Of course, I'll have to wait until they get Seattle next week to see for sure. This week they draw London Jacksonville, a team that literally has no strengths. They have great bookend tackles, but considering they're protecting either Chad Henne or Blaine Gabbert who gives a shit. The weird thing is, the Jags always play the Colts close, beating them in Indy last year and taking both contests in 2011-12. This year's vintage is historically bad, but a two-score home dog? Sign me up. Colts win, Jags with the points.

1:00pm EDT, FOX

Chicago at Detroit (-3) - My wife, while watching The League: "The Cutlers seem like good people. They're really likable." I COULDN'T AGREE MORE, BABY. The scary thing is I don't think the Bears defense has played their best ball yet. If they stay healthy, I could be rethinking my Super Bowl pick, and I'm not even kidding or trolling. Detroit, on the other hand, has wins against 0-3 Minnesota and 0-3 Washington, and they're the favorite here? Their only hope is Peanut Tillman not being 100%, especially now with Nate Burleson out. I don't trust Detroit's defense and I definitely don't trust Jim Schwartz. Bears in the upset.

NY Giants at Kansas City (-4.5) - The Giants have given up a league-worst 115 points and have an NFC-worst -61 point differential. Holy fucking shit, they're terrible. It's one thing to face Peyton Manning, but getting rolled by Carolina is just downright sad. I love the tongue-in-cheek references to them going 9-7 and beating the Pats in the Super Bowl this season, but I hate to break it to you, it ain't happening. Actually I don't hate to break it to you, this is going to be awesome. Great coaches can win anywhere, and Andy Reid is a great coach. Give him Jamaal Charles and a lot of talent on defense and he'll womp up on the NFC Least fools. Once Alex Smith figures out how to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield to Dwayne Bowe, KC will be a force. I'm sticking with them until further notice, because their schedule is pretty damn soft. Chiefs win and cover.

Arizona at Tampa Bay (-3) - What a sad state of affairs this game is. Much to no one's surprise, acquiring Carson Palmer and Rashard Mendenhall isn't leading to an explosive offense. Arizona's defense is still legit, but they badly need to develop a quarterback, and it won't be Drew Stanton or Ryan Lindley. Tampa's in even worse shape, Josh Freeman has looked like the worst quarterback in the league pretty much every week. They too have a good defense, but I'm thinking they'll just try to pound Doug Martin as much as possible here. Under-40.5 should be the lock of the year, and I guess I'll take the Bucs to get off the schnide and cover.

Seattle at Houston (+3) - Now that Russell Wilson is off and running, I really wouldn't want to bet against Seattle the rest of the way. They have a tough road game here and a few more on the horizon (IND, ATL, SF) but I think they're a lock for 12+ wins. My only concern is Marshawn Lynch and his 3.4 yards per carry, but he had a monster game against the '9ers (135 total yards, 3 TDs) I'm sure he'll get going against the rest of the league soon enough. In last week's thread, I was hating on Houston (as usual) and Plow reminded me that they'll be fine. They have weapons everywhere, and I do love their defense. So why am I always so down on the Texans? Matt Schaub. He's the ultimate caretaker quarterback, and I don't think they'll ever go deep in the playoffs with him under center. It's why you should never use win-loss records when evaluating the position, the team is 21-8 with him starting since the beginning of 2011, but in my opinion he's hardly the catalyst of most of those wins. It's hard for a playoff team to dump their #1 quarterback, but in this case I think it's necessary. (Of course after I write that he'll probably throw for 4 TDs this week.) Seahawks win and cover.

4:05pm EDT, CBS

NY Jets at Tennessee (-3.5) - If there's been one big surprise for me this season, it's the Jets. I thought they would be Jacksonville-level bad, but they've played surprisingly well en route to a 2-1 start. I still think the bottom will drop out, but their performance on defense is encouraging. The Titans are also a surprising 2-1 team, and they've been very effective running the ball. Jake Locker's TD pass to Justin Hunter in the closing seconds against San Diego is definitely a moment he can build on, and his development will be crucial to Tennessee's balance. This is a difficult game to pick for me because it's like these teams are mirror images of each other. But Rex Ryan is a bit unreliable, and they haven't been good offensively on the road dating back to last year. Titans to win and cover.

4:25pm EDT, FOX

Philadelphia at Denver (-10.5) - I think by the end of the year, Philly's offensive explosion in the early going will be a distant memory. You can't out-gimmick NFL defenses before they just start hitting you in the mouth, and their own defense is going to get rolled on a weekly basis. Speaking of getting rolled, the Tyrannical Touchdown Tosser is showing no mercy on anyone this season. Champ Bailey and Von Miller out? Who cares, just rack up almost 500 yards and over 42 points of offense per game. It's a blessing and a curse to own any of Decker, Welker, Orange Julius, and DEMARYIUS in fantasy, every week is a wheel-of-fortune spin to see who gets the red zone looks. Let's just enjoy the ride while we can. Broncos win and cover.

Washington at Oakland (+3) - Much in the same way I'm staying with the Chiefs until they lose, I'll pick against the Redskins until they win. Bob Triple might be slowly getting back on track, but that defense is downright putrid. I have no idea how they stopped anyone last season, but looking at the numbers it seems like they just got incredibly lucky with turnovers margin. Oakland's a better team that you think right now, and Terrelle Pryor has Cam-esque upside. I like them to quietly get six or seven wins this year, and if they can sort out some offensive line issues they'll be a factor in the wild card race in 2014. Raiders in the upset.

Dallas at San Diego (+2) - Once again, I like the Cowboys to win the NFC East. And once again, I think they're very mediocre. They could go 6-0 in the division and 3-7 against everyone else. The encouraging thing is everyone is chipping in offensively, and Romo should get more and more comfortable running the plays he wants and making in-game adjustments. All three Chargers games so far have been decided by three points, so it's imperative that they take care of the football in these close games. Of course, they have Phil Rivers, so good luck with that. Also, that defense is giving up 470+ yards per game, and they haven't even played Denver yet. Oy. Dallas wins and covers.

8:30pm EDT, NBC

New England at Atlanta (-1.5) - Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson mercifully had solid games against Tampa, maintaining Tom Brady's sanity for another week. Their wins haven't been pretty, but no one's complaining about a 3-0 start. Atlanta's offense should be a good test for the defense, who has only had to stop the likes of EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, and Josh Freeman so far. As for Atlanta, I'm reminded of an old sports cliché -- if you're not getting better, you're getting worse. Steven Jackson was supposed to come in and provide balance, but now he's hurt, the offensive line isn't performing well, and Roddy White is dinged up as well. They need to get their shit together before the Saints run away with the division. It won't be this week, but their schedule lines up Tampa, Arizona, and Carolina for them, so things are looking up at least. After Cris Collinsworth's on-air admission that Ben Roethlisberger likes to "choke 'em out", let's hope he refrains from giving out any Aaron Hernandez tidbits, eh? Patriots in the upset.


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 30TH

8:30pm EDT, ESPN

Miami at New Orleans (-6.5) - Game of the week on Monday night? What is this devilry? I've been hyping Miami all year, mostly due to their defense. But Ryan Tannehill is really taking charge of the offense, and the team's efficiency on 3rd down (21-for-42 for 50%, third in the league) goes a long way to sustaining drives and putting up points. I like them to continue rolling against the Saints defense. N'awlins caught Atlanta napping in week 1 and hasn't had much to do the last two weeks, but they face a tough road the rest of the way. After here they go at Chicago and at New England, so a win here is crucial. With all the attention being paid to Peyton (and rightly so) Brees is still humming right along with over 1000 passing yards, but 4 INTs could be a concern. If Miami can turn Brees over a couple times, I really like them to win. But the Saints will in all likelihood have too much offense in the Dome. New Orleans wins, Miami with the points.

[Xajii]

Ugh so many good games this week! Wow. I think I like most of your picks, but I'm taking SD and I'm taking Miami. I wish I could say I'm taking Atlanta but I can't.

[Tajin]

Welp, SF NEEDS to win this week because PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS.


But seriously we need to win.

[Omnipotent]

THE RETURN OF GRONK

[Arkanna]

If Skins lose to Oakland, I'll be throwing in the towel lol

[Mythe_Seraph]

BEARS D isn't as powerful as last year I feel. The loss of Melton is pretty rough for us I feel and our pass rush is going to be even worse than it is. Yeah, we're getting some pressure but no we're not getting the sacks we should be getting. The blitzing is so much more common and I like some of the mixed blitzes they're implementing, like the corners and safety rotations I am seeing. But I would agree, the Bears D hasn't played their best ball and I really hope they improve. As much as they're saying it's the "same system" it looks very new to me. Our achilles heel is our zone coverage, Steelers and Bengals took FULL advantage of it. Peanut is not playing like a shut down corner right now either. I don't know what's up with him, his timing and anticipation of routes seems a bit off. I constantly see him trailing his receivers. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he's played two good receivers from Brown/Green but still. He isn't the same right now.

Just some random thoughts about my BEARS. I hope they can keep this up. It's very realistic that they can go into their Bye week with only a single loss. I'm stoked that their Bye leads into the Green Bay game. This is the year I feel like we can finally make it a Rivalry again.

[Chun Liroy]

I think Oakland will beat the redskins. They actually look decent, they were just playing Peyton Manning.

[Cleverness]

Yea it sucks when you have to play one of only 4 good teams in the NFL this season.

[Cleverness]

What I'm trying to say is the rest of us suck

[tyven]

LOL I CANT WAIT TO MISS ALL THE GAMES CUZ IM GONNA BE AT A WORK CONFERENCE IN SAN ANTONIO LIKE A LIL BITCH

[Arkanna]

I think Oakland will beat the redskins. They actually look decent, they were just playing Peyton Manning.

I think so too, I'm just not ready to face that yet.

[Tajin]

What I'm trying to say is the rest of us suck

I'll allow it.

[tyven]

The redskins will get there first W this weekend. And since its going into a bye week that basically seals up the start of their 13 game run to the playoffs and superbowl. its the redskins so whenever something good happens you know its superbowl champ time.

[Headspace]

Rock, Paper, Ded*

[Chun Liroy]

yeah how do you fuck that up bregor

[Cail]

What a terrible fuck up.

this thread is the worst of the worst

[Cail]

"That's just little stuff that people like to get on TV and have something to talk about," Fox said Tuesday, per The Denver Post. "Ronnie Hillman was going back in the game. That was just a little way to have fun, I guess. That wasn't official. Ronnie was running the ball. We decide that, not them."

[Chrius]

GO COWBOYS

[archibaldcrane]

So, you know how Pro Football Focus grades every player in every game? Well, they have a "wall of fame" showing the best single-game performances for players since they've been grading (since 2007).

On defense for 3-4 DEs, anything above a +7.0 makes the cut. There are 16 performances listed (will be 17 when they update after this past weekend)

JJ Watt has 7 of those 17 performances - 5 from 2012 alone, 2 so far this season.

Justin Smith has 4, Darnell Docket has 3 (including the top 2).

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...efensive-ends/

[Tajin]

I think everyone agrees JJW is boss.