Shooting a promo for NBC?
TIME FOR MY DEXTER IMPRESSION, I'LL FUCKING KILL YOU MICHELE TAFOYA
Game ends on controversial non-penalty?
DOESN'T MATTER, HAD RINGS
Last week
M/L: 8-7
ATS: 3-9-3
Overall
M/L: 101-61
ATS: 76-79-7
Holy shit this week sucked. Only Oakland, Seattle, and Carolina were winners for me ATS, and three fucking pushes. Good thing Atlantic City doesn't have sports books yet.
Bye week: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Seattle
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 21ST
8:30pm EST, NFL Network
New Orleans at Atlanta (+9.5) -
Scary thing is, that would probably improve his field vision. Atlanta is one steaming hot mess right now, as Bobby Rainey (no not Chris Rainey, from Florida, Bobby Rainey from fucking Western Kentucky) ran all over them as the SCHIANO MEN got the easy win. The fact that they held on to Tony Gonzalez at the deadline just makes me madder and madder every week. And yet Mike Smith seems completely safe. Whatever. Saints win and cover.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 24TH
1:00pm EST, CBS
Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-2) - Down 7 at halftime, Pittsburgh rallies to beat Detroit and keep their slim playoff hopes alive (much to Brill's chagrin) and now they come into Cleland with a chance to be only two games back of Cincinnati. I don't think they're a playoff team, but the Steelers are 4-2 since their bye and have a pretty soft schedule the rest of the way. Also I really like Le'Veon Bell because 3.1 yards per carry. The Brownies got up early on Cincy to the tune of 13-0 before Jason Candle pickled and check-down'd his way to a pathetic 7.3 QBR and another loss. This is your weekly reminder to bench whoever Joe Haden is covering (Antonio Brown) but otherwise I have to go with the hot hand. Also I want a higher draft pick for Cleland. Steelers in the upset.
San Diego at Kansas City (-5) - Remember when Phil Rivers was the hottest non-Manning quarterback in the NFL? Well, three straight weeks of mediocrity and losses will take the wind out of your sails in a hurry. They also have a brutal schedule (KC twice, DEN, CIN) so for all you PRIVS TO DA SUPA BOWEL people still out there, good luck. Kansas City went toe-to-toe with the big bad Broncos and didn't embarrass themselves (they almost backdoor-covered too) so I'm not surprised by this line. I still think Alex Smith doesn't get enough credit, but I know he'll be defined by his failures in San Fran and the label of "game manager" until his team goes deep in the playoffs. If they miss round three with Denver until the AFC title game, it could happen. As for this game, between 2000 and 2011, Andy Reid is 42-22-1 in the regular season following a loss. I'm guessing he'll have KC ready to go. Chiefs win and cover.
NY Jets at Baltimore (-3.5) - Beat the Saints, get a week off, lose to the Bills. No one rides the roller coaster quite like the Jets, who are just straight up bad on the road. Meanwhile Ballmurr is actually half-decent at home (3-1) and like Pittsburgh is probably entertaining playoff dreams of their own. Ray Rice finally got loose in Chicago, but then again so does everyone these days. This is probably gonna be an ugly game, so I'll bet the home/road trends continue and take the Ravens to win and cover.
Jacksonville at Houston (-10) - Okay, all you Jags faders in Eliminator, now here's your test. Houston just lost at home to the Matt McGloin-led Oakland Raiders. Ready to sack up? Texans win, Jags with the points.
1:00pm EST, FOX
Tampa Bay at Detroit (-9) - Two wins in a row for the SCHIANO MEN, but this is probably the end of the road. Detroit is stout in the middle, so Rainey probably isn't going to break off another monster fantasy day. I said last week that losing to Pittsburgh would be so Schwartz, but really losing to Tampa would be even more Schwartz. Do I double down? Nah. Lions win, Bucs with the points.
Minnesota at Green Bay (-4.5) - Through all the Cassel walls and Freemen, the Vikings may have finally found their quarterback. The coaching staff and players have expressed confidence in Christian Ponder, despite shitting up the joint in Seattle. He'll get another start in Green Bay, trying to prove that he's the player we saw against Washington. Green Bay has quarterback problems of their own. Aaron Rodgers, the greatest football player ever by statistical analysis, is still out, and the Pack have dropped three straight. Being a Badger, I'm sure archi can pull some stats about how he's great and all, but TOLZIEN is currently rocking a 1/5 TD/INT ratio. It might just be best to hand the ball to Peterson and Lacy. Packers win and cover.
Chicago at St. Louis (-1) - Speaking of quarterback problems, we all want to see CUTTY do it, but Josh McCown has held his own this season. Whenever we do get CUTTY back, Chicago will be in the mix for the playoffs not only because of McCown, but the players around him have stepped up and continued to perform. I was very high on Alshon Jeffery at South Carolina, before he showed up to the Combine at Prince Fielder's weight. Now it seems like he's turning into GMARSH Lite which is still really fucking good. Meanwhile, the Rams most recently spanked Indianapolis and then had a week off to enjoy themselves. As much as I like Jeff Fisher, that game seems like an outlier, complete with defensive and special teams touchdowns and five turnovers by Indy, some forced and some gifted. St. Louis is a team on the rise, and Zac Stacy should have a good day plowing through Chicago's front seven, but I think they'll have trouble slowing down Forte, GMARSH, and company. Bears in the upset.
Carolina at Miami (+4.5) -
http://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net...gif?1384831750
Yeop. Panthers win and cover.
4:05pm EST, CBS
Tennessee at Oakland (-1) - Back in September, the Titans were 3-1 and seemingly in the mix with the other shitty teams in the AFC South. Now, three games back of Indy, they're floundering. Fitzpatrick has played pretty well, and Mike Mayock talked about the team's lack of confidence in Jake Locker, specifically his health. If they do go in a different direction, the Hurt Locker could be a sneaky signing for a team with an older or injury-prone quarterback. In the present, Oakland has a pretty good run defense to slow down Chris Johnson, so Fitz (The Harvard Hurler? The Crimson Beard? We need a good Fitz nickname) will have to carry the load again. As for the Raiders, a pair of backups in McGloin and Jennings carried them past Houston last week. They need some help at a lot of positions, but it won't much matter as they're in the wrong division to compete right now anyway. One funny factoid -- Oakland is 0-3 against the NFC East, and 4-3 otherwise. Their Achilles' heel might be shitty teams. And Tennessee is a pretty shitty team. Titans in the upset.
Indianapolis at Arizona (-2.5) - Indy is one of only eight teams with at least 7 wins right now. But they're 15th in weighted DVOA behind such powerhouse teams as Dallas, Philly, and these Arizona Cardinals. Two weeks ago I watched (well I RedZone'd) one of the worst games in recent memory by a team I thought was really good. I mean, St. Louis just tore those mofos up. The Colts bounced back with a win, but not in the way I thought they would. I'll give them a pass for a short week. Now, with rest and a warm climate, I expect them to have a really solid game. As for the Cards, you know this game means a lot to Bruce Arians. He helped keep Indy afloat last season, and now he's turned Arizona into a playoff-caliber team. I know Kansas City's turnaround has been astounding, but last year the Cards were 1-11 in their last 12 games, and are now sitting pretty at 6-4. Like Oakland, they have an uphill battle in their division, but San Fran hasn't exactly been the model of consistency this season. Good luck, Bruce, I'm rooting for ya. Still, I think Indy takes care of business. Colts in the upset.
4:25pm EST, FOX
Dallas at NY Giants (-2.5) - Blech. Were I actually betting my hard-earned money on every single game, I'd hesitate to even put $5 on this stinker. Dallas is still without their best player on defense in Sean Lee, but the bye week gave their other players a much-needed breather. The Giants have reeled off four straight wins, but they've been tepid at best and fugly at worst. I have no read on this game, or these teams in general, but I think Dallas has the better difference makers on the field, even without Lee. Cowboys in the upset.
8:30pm EST, NBC
Denver at New England (+2.5) -
IS THAT ALL YOU GOT, SHIT-ASS TOM BRADY?
THE BEST. ALWAYS. Broncos win and cover.
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 25TH
8:30pm EST, ESPN
San Francisco at Washington (+5.5) - Leroy was right. There, I said it. Colin Kaepernick's been a shitty quarterback against any decent competition this season. With a chance to put New Orleans away, the '9ers two 4th quarter drives were both 3-and-outs, and they lost. They need far better execution to make a run at the playoffs. Luckily, they get the Indigenous Peoples this week, and that defense makes everyone seem like '99 Rams. To make matters worse, there are some in DC and even within the organization that seemed to have turned on Bobert Triple. With few other impact players on the roster, they better change their tune, 'cos he's all they have. It should be an interesting off-season here in Washington! 49ers win and cover.
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