2013-14 NFL Wild Card Weekend: The Philip Rivers Spectacular

[Xajii]

NFL playoffs and scheduling was perfect. This is dumb.

agreed, and agree with Bregor.

For every instance of the 11-5 Cards missing out, you also have either the 8-8 Ravens / Dolphins / Steelers making it in on the other side, all of which were fucking piss poor excuses for teams who have no business in the playoffs.

[Byrd]

For every instance of the 11-5 Cards missing out, you also have either the 8-8 Ravens / Dolphins / Steelers making it in on the other side, all of which were fucking piss poor excuses for teams who have no business in the playoffs.

Yup. And as a Seahawks fan, I'll be the first one to attest that they had no business hosting a playoff game in 2010 at 7-9. I think if you win your division but don't win at least 9 games, you can go on the road if the best wild card team has a better record. Or, hell, at 7-9, you can miss the playoffs altogether, division champ or no.

[tyven]

ITS FINE WITH ME. MORE FOOTBALL GUYS RIGHT

[Byrd]

ITS FINE WITH ME. MORE FOOTBALL GUYS RIGHT

I'd rather see a 17th game / 18th week added to the season, and have everyone play 8 home, 8 road, and one neutral site game somewhere. This isn't the NBA or the NHL, where you have a 7 game series to figure out who the best teams are so you can bring in chump teams for a little extra revenue.

[Tajin]

Fuck 18th week, injuries are bad as is.

[Ksandra]

Fuck 18th week, injuries are bad as is.

I was just about to say Tyven trying to kill all the players.

[Cutriss]

Dan Patrick is reporting that the NFL will add a 3rd Wild Card team to each conference.

So wait, aside from it being stupid, how is that going to impact the scheduling? Byes to the 3rd seed now? Or will there be a "fight for 6th seed" pre-playoffs elimination round?

And if so, will it be on Thursday night?

[Bregor]

So wait, aside from it being stupid, how is that going to impact the scheduling? Byes to the 3rd seed now? Or will there be a "fight for 6th seed" pre-playoffs elimination round?

And if so, will it be on Thursday night?

Only the #1 seed gets a bye for wild card weekend, #2 plays #7, the rest is the same. My guess is they'll probably have three games on wild card Sunday at 1pm, 4pm, and 8pm EST.

[Bregor]

Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter 24s

Dolphins announced OC Mike Sherman relieved of his duties.

J
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[Krandor]

For Wut, I'm missing a memo

[Rhinox]

brandon marshall jeff ireland joke.


little before your time

[Dimmauk]

I blame the NFC EAST for the extra wild card bullshit.

[Bregor]

[Tajin]

Damn nigga that's good

[Chrius]

But it means a lot more 8-8 and the occasional 7-9 team are going to make it as wild cards. I like the NFL playoffs as is because getting there (usually) means something. And in a one game series, upsets are far more common.

Sorry you missed the playoffs because you're in the toughest division in football, Arizona, but if it makes you feel any better, you got gifted two division titles as a mediocre team because you were in the worst division in football not very long ago.

I'd be OK with caveats worked in that if you're a bad enough division title winner (say, less than 9 (or 10) wins), you can lose your home field to a better team. And if you're a bad enough wild card team (8-8 or worse), you can lose your spot in the playoffs if there is someone in the other conference that is significantly better than you (say, 2 games). But I don't want to increase the number of teams in the playoffs.

Back to 2002, no 7-9 team would have made the 3rd wildcard
AFC would have had:
2x 8-8
6x 9-7
3x 10-6
1x 11-5

NFC:
4x 8-8
5x 9-7
3x 10-6

[tyven]

idk that i have ever really laughed at a Breaking Madden. Usually the tweets he receives are the best part but holy shit did i LOL when Brady threw to Brady. I absolutely didn't see it coming.

[Serra]

Do wild cards usually have more wins than division champions -- obviously not the first and second place teams, but compared to the bottom two, how do they fare?

[Bregor]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/playo...nal-line-moves

Early divisional line moves

Here are the divisional playoff openers from the LVH, as that was the first Vegas book that came up on the Don Best odds screen and serves as our "book of record." I'll compare those with where the numbers opened offshore, how they got bet into shape and where they're likely to go the rest of the week. As we saw with the Chiefs-Colts and 49ers-Packers games, the timing of your bets can make all the difference in the world.

Saints at Seahawks minus-7.5: This was the only line to go up Saturday night as the Saints won as the NFC's No. 6 seed and automatically drew top-seeded Seattle (the AFC needed to wait for Sunday's No. 3 versus No. 6 matchup to determine their divisional playoff matchups). The Olympic offshore book (aka "the Greek" as its address is thegreek.com) opened the Seahawks minus-8.5 and the LVH countered with 7.5. On Saturday morning, the LVH went to 8.5 and then 9, but during the course of Sunday's betting it pretty much leveled off at a consensus of 8.5 (though on Sunday night the LVH dropped it back down to 8). This looks like it should waver right around 8 or 8.5. The over/under is a consensus 48 in Vegas, though some offshores are at 47.5 so it looks more likely to dip (keep an eye on the weather forecasts) than to go higher.

Colts at Patriots minus-9: As the Chargers were wrapping up their upset of the Bengals on Sunday, the offshore books BetOnline and 5Dimes went with Patriots minus-7 and minus-7.5, respectively. The LVH opted for minus-9. The Pinnacle and CRIS offshore books also went with 7.5. Within 19 minutes that's where the LVH got bet down to and the market has leveled off. However, some books have gone to plus-7.5 (minus-120) while others have gone to minus-7 with added juice, so shop around to try and find the line you want without the added vig as it looks like it may waver between these two numbers. The over/under has mostly settled at 53, though there's a low of 52.5 at the Caesars books here in Vegas and CRIS offshore, and several books are at 53.5.

49ers pick 'em at Panthers: After the 49ers prevailed against the Packers, this line went up at the LVH at pick 'em at 4:46 p.m. Vegas time, according to the Don Best screen. Within a few minutes, BetOnline went with the Panthers minus-1 but Olympic went with 49ers minus-2.5 and was joined by Pinnacle. Those numbers started getting bet down right away and it didn't take long before the consensus line was 49ers minus-1. Later in the evening, the line inched up to 1.5 and 2 and even 2.5 at the LVH late Sunday night. It looks like it'll settle in that space at just under a field goal. The over/under looks like it is settling in at 43.

Chargers at Broncos minus-10.5: This is the last game on next weekend's schedule but was posted at the same time as the Colts-Patriots game. BetOnline opened minus-9 while the LVH went with 10.5. CRIS and the Greek split the difference at 10 (Pinnacle went with 10.5 and heavy juice on the dog and that lasted less than a minute). It was looking like 10 would be the consensus number, but the William Hill books in Nevada went with 9.5 and the LVH went there at 6:05 p.m., so it's looking like if you like the Chargers (which I do) that you might want to lock in the plus-10 in case it disappears. It'll remain to be seen if the public bets this back higher later in the week. The over/under has been bet down a little and the consensus was 54.5 as of late Sunday night.

Happy handicapping, and come back Thursday, as I'll have my "Tuley's Take" column looking at the public perception and the wiseguys' view (as well as my plays) of the NFL divisional playoffs.

Carolina gets no respek, would have loved the Cats at +2.5

[Abandon]

Colts sign Deion Branch. lol

[Chrius]

Do wild cards usually have more wins than division champions -- obviously not the first and second place teams, but compared to the bottom two, how do they fare?

From 02-06 no NFC wildcard had more wins than an NFC division winner, since then the best wildcard had more wins than this many in conference division winners
1,2,1,2,1,1,2
AFC
2002 <--> 2013
1,1,0,2,0,1,2,0,2,2,1,0

From what I gather in my last 2 posts, the current system is fine to me. Many times, no wildcard has a better record than a division winner, and when it does happen, well, there's room for 2 teams to jump in.