.DAT Mining: 4/7/2014 Update - Findings and Discussion

[Alistrianna]

SE also added this instrument so non 90 harp brds could compete in events. its extremely unlikely they would add another instrument that would improve the power of the instrument they are trying to balance out to begin with.

[NynJa]

You're missing a very important and glaring point

Possibly that it's overlooked sure. Possible that it was intended no way

Even if it worked and you could get 5 songs with 99 daur and this harp, 6 with Clarion, it would be patched faster than it takes for your dick to get hard at the idea of being able to have 5/6 songs up.

Its SE, they've fucked up less things, but you're trying really really hard to validate reasons for why it should work, when it doesnt work, nor was it supposed to work.

[Foldypaws]

Just start the fight with all TH gear on, inc old dagger, throw boomerang at mob, swap to better daggers/gear.
Your 1st proc of TH will be TH10.

Disregarding what people have already pointed out (that it'll proc to 9, not 10), that proc will be much less likely to occur if you swap to non-TH gear than if you stay in TH gear.

Unless the fight is excessively long (none of them are), you'll get (on average) better TH by staying in TH gear because you'll be more likely to get those increases.

[dasva]

Disregarding what people have already pointed out (that it'll proc to 9, not 10), that proc will be much less likely to occur if you swap to non-TH gear than if you stay in TH gear.

Unless the fight is excessively long (none of them are), you'll get (on average) better TH by staying in TH gear because you'll be more likely to get those increases.

Which imo is kinda bad design. It's one thing to require a job to switch to some specialized gear to do something but to stay in it full time limiting their dps is kinda ewww. Now if it was something that made a huge difference for the fight like say plds wearing shields instead of gswding it up sure but a small increase to the chance to level up something that will give you a small increase in the chance to get a drop isn't really worth it which is kinda why thf doesn't get brought in the first place.

[Byrthnoth]

Actually, it doesn't lol...

What you're stating is a basic confirmation bias because your test and evidence aren't accounting for the scenario we're pointing out. There are plenty of permutations that your scenario proves your hypothesis but equally plenty where it does not. The permutation that you did not consider is this:

Song Slots: A, B, C, D, E

Scenario:
Rule Normal: "Daurdabla will only add songs to D, E if A, B song slots are filled"
Rule Clarion: "Daurdabla will only add songs to D, E if A, B, C song slots are filled"

It is indeed a test that needed to be done and I'm sure others had value of this information.

Do you know what it's called when your confirmation bias is confirmed?

Spoiler: show

It's called being right.

By the way, the term "confirmation bias" is typically applied to more complicated issues where someone ignores evidence to the contrary to favor their viewpoint. What would the contrary evidence be in this case?



Lets assume this (the above quoted logic doesn't work because slot C is never filled):

Rule No Instrument: Slot A is available (1 song base)
Rule Any Instrument: Slots A and B are available (Any instruments adds 1 song)
Rule Daurd (90/95): Slots A, B, and C are available (Daurd 90/95 adds 2 songs)
Rule Daurd (99): Slots A, B, C, and D are available (Daurd 99 adds 3 songs)

With the above logic, it's impossible to dissociate an increase in the maximum number of songs from an increase in the number of arbitrary unique slots. Furthermore, there's no advantage to one over the other.

When you add Clarion Call to the mix, though, you either end up duplicating your entire slot logic structure to ape the maximum number of songs, or you get a 5th song with G-horn + Clarion Call after putting up 4 songs with 99 Daurd. It turns out that you do not get a 5th song in this situation, so your logic has to become this if you want to stick to the "slots" theory:

Spoiler: show

Rule No Instrument: Slot A is available
Rule No Instrument and Clarion Call: Slots A and B are available
Rule Any Instrument: Slots A and B are available
Rule Any Instrument and Clarion Call: Slots A, B, and C are available
Rule Daurd (90/95): Slots A, B, and C are available
Rule Daurd (90/95) and Clarion Call: Slots A, B, C, and D are available
Rule Daurd (99): Slots A, B, C, and D are available
Rule Daurd (99) and Clarion Call: Slots A, B, C, D, and E are available

Versus this for the max songs theory:

Spoiler: show

Rule No Instrument: 1 song base
Rule Any instrument: +1 song max
Rule Daurd 90/95: +2 songs max
Rule Daurd 99: +3 songs max
Rule Clarion Call: +1 song max

Don't multiply entities beyond necessity.

It was not impossible that SE decided to use some incredibly complicated "slot system," and they've certainly done stupid shit before, but it was hardly something anyone should have expected given everything that was known. Still, even if that was the case, how would you fold the new instrument in? Duplicate the already-complicated logic structure yet again? It's just a matter of adding one item ID to the max songs theory (not even a new rule).

So yeah, the test results are totally unsurprising and if I had not ever read the test I would never have even wondered about it. It wasn't a waste for you, though, because you now have an instrument better than 90 Daurd.

[Loire]

So yeah, the test results are totally unsurprising and if I had not ever read the test I would never have even wondered about it. It wasn't a waste for you, though, because you now have an instrument better than 90 Daurd.

Splitting hairs here but I would actually contest now that songs are overwritable that the new instrument is slightly worse in the instance that one does not possess a ghorn, simply for the use for songs that do not commonly have accessible instruments for, ie scherzo. Having that extra duration on nitro should not be discounted.

[Maurauc]

25 files in the update. Surely it wouldn't be an update for an event that ends tomorrow?

[JSHidaka]

Splitting hairs here but I would actually contest now that songs are overwritable that the new instrument is slightly worse in the instance that one does not possess a ghorn, simply for the use for songs that do not commonly have accessible instruments for, ie scherzo. Having that extra duration on nitro should not be discounted.

I wouldn't be mad if the new instrument had All songs +3 too... or +2 at least.. would make it perfect for my mule.. lol

[Foldypaws]

Which imo is kinda bad design. It's one thing to require a job to switch to some specialized gear to do something but to stay in it full time limiting their dps is kinda ewww. Now if it was something that made a huge difference for the fight like say plds wearing shields instead of gswding it up sure but a small increase to the chance to level up something that will give you a small increase in the chance to get a drop isn't really worth it which is kinda why thf doesn't get brought in the first place.

It's annoying. I'm pretty sure the idea why they don't just make it a flat increase is so you don't have e.g. one well geared thf with TH8 and 5 mules with crap gear, all of whom can hit it and have the same chance to raise it.

But in solving that basically non-existent problem they've introduce the real problem of making thf worse off when there's only one of you.

[Sechs]

I wouldn't be mad if the new instrument had All songs +3 too... or +2 at least.. would make it perfect for my mule.. lol

Isn't there already a +2 all songs instruments from Bayld or something? Or was that Reives only?

[JSHidaka]

Reives only iirc

[NynJa]

Forefront Flute 99 [Ranged] All Races
Wind instrument skill +10 Reives: All songs +2
LV 99 BRD

[Keichan]

Do you know what it's called when your confirmation bias is confirmed?

Spoiler: show

It's called being right.

By the way, the term "confirmation bias" is typically applied to more complicated issues where someone ignores evidence to the contrary to favor their viewpoint. What would the contrary evidence be in this case?

It's very simple and still subject to confirmation bias. By the way, the term "confirmation bias" can be applied to simple questions such as "Are all swans white". It doesn't have to apply to argumentation and debate, though, it's used there commonly and "ignoring evidence" is associated with it. Beyond the scope of this thread, so all I can tell you is to look it up, but let me break it to you: in terms of confirmation bias, you're wrong because you're using evidence to confirm your hypothesis without considering the other hypothesis.

The two opposing ideas is whether the songs are "Slotted" vs "Not Slotted". You give evidence that:

Ghorn->Ghorn->Daurb->Daurb->Ghorn. You make the claim that the songs are not slotted because of this evidence.

This is immediately a confirmation bias because you do not know whether the last songs are contigent on the previous songs being filled. This was demonstrated with my previous post. You also do not know if these slots are determined by the instrument because there was no evidence this scenario doesn't exist:

Song Slots: A, B, C, D, E

Scenario:
Rule Normal: "Daurdabla will only add songs to D, E if A, B song slots are filled"
Rule Clarion: "Daurdabla will only add songs to D, E if A, B, C song slots are filled"

I think you already missed the point when you said that "C is never filled". That's right, in this hypothesis, C is only filled during Clarion. Otherwise, it skips over to D and E in this scenario.

-----

Based on the evidence that we had to work with, this mechanism is no less likely to occur. The argument that you make about the "Programming perspective" is good, I do not argue that programmers need to find the easiest way to accomplish a specific task and likely, in this respect, you have a good argument. However, experimentally and the type of evidence we have, I will argue that making the assumption immediately without testing is naive.

[Sechs]

Forefront Flute 99 [Ranged] All Races
Wind instrument skill +10 Reives: All songs +2
LV 99 BRD

Aawww... sorry then

[NynJa]

Are you going on for reasons for why it should work, or theorizing why it doesnt work?

[EjinCaitsith]

Why is it even a debate? We already had evidence from Camaraderie Harp that it wouldn't stack with Daur. Moreover, SE specifically stated that this new harp would be an easier replacement for Daur.

Like others have said, if this did stack with Daur, it would have been a major glitch and fixed right away.

[JSHidaka]

It's very simple and still subject to confirmation bias. By the way, the term "confirmation bias" can be applied to simple questions such as "Are all swans white". It doesn't have to apply to argumentation and debate, though, it's used there commonly and "ignoring evidence" is associated with it. Beyond the scope of this thread, so all I can tell you is to look it up, but let me break it to you: in terms of confirmation bias, you're wrong because you're using evidence to confirm your hypothesis without considering the other hypothesis.

The two opposing ideas is whether the songs are "Slotted" vs "Not Slotted". You give evidence that:

Ghorn->Ghorn->Daurb->Daurb->Ghorn. You make the claim that the songs are not slotted because of this evidence.

This is immediately a confirmation bias because you do not know whether the last songs are contigent on the previous songs being filled. This was demonstrated with my previous post. You also do not know if these slots are determined by the instrument because there was no evidence this scenario doesn't exist:

Song Slots: A, B, C, D, E

Scenario:
Rule Normal: "Daurdabla will only add songs to D, E if A, B song slots are filled"
Rule Clarion: "Daurdabla will only add songs to D, E if A, B, C song slots are filled"

I think you already missed the point when you said that "C is never filled". That's right, in this hypothesis, C is only filled during Clarion. Otherwise, it skips over to D and E in this scenario.

-----

Based on the evidence that we had to work with, this mechanism is no less likely to occur. The argument that you make about the "Programming perspective" is good, I do not argue that programmers need to find the easiest way to accomplish a specific task and likely, in this respect that you are right. However, experimentally and the type of evidence we have, I will argue that making the assumption immediately without testing is naive.

This was "tested" already with the rieve harp... Why would be different with this harp?... Only I can think those who tested where really bored and had no interest in any other weapon to use the items in the harp, already having daurdabla.

Btw those ppl who understand the packets things, is possible to make the game think you have Clarion all the time(no idea but someone using ashita did enable widescan for all the jobs before SE gave us that ability) or makes it thinks you got daurdabla99 equipped.... Or the mythic dagger....

[NynJa]

That idea falls under "fucking stupid" and "really fucking stupid". A 90 daur bard constantly having 4 songs up would set off the reddest of red flags, redder than the reddest red times infinity. Hacking widescan is hardly detectable, whereas having a constant extra song would draw attention very quickly.

[kjLotus]

Btw those ppl who understand the packets things, is possible to make the game think you have Clarion all the time(no idea but someone using ashita did enable widescan for all the jobs before SE gave us that ability) or makes it thinks you got daurdabla99 equipped.... Or the mythic dagger....

No.

[dasva]

It's annoying. I'm pretty sure the idea why they don't just make it a flat increase is so you don't have e.g. one well geared thf with TH8 and 5 mules with crap gear, all of whom can hit it and have the same chance to raise it.

But in solving that basically non-existent problem they've introduce the real problem of making thf worse off when there's only one of you.

Plus I can't think of any situation involving anything where that would even be a good idea. Now maybe if the odds of raising it weren't so bad and maybe if extra th levels didn't have such a small effect maybe