Salvage Bans v 2.0

[D44kpunk]

Nowadays, yes. Back in the day before S-E went nuclear, you'd see RMT mules parked at the AH, just fucking with commodities. I can remember watching garbage-named naked toons running up to the Jeuno AH and shortly thereafter, something would get it's stock sold out, followed by being put back up at double the price. In fact, if you posted the same item, the RMT mule would generally instantly buy them while it was clearing out the pile- as I found out once with a pile of spider webs (back when rainbow thread and such actually mattered). I ran the price up to about 40% more than it was 15 minutes ago (because fuck, I thought it was just someone stupid), then the RMT bots would cycle all the old sales off the record by bumping a higher price between them, and suddenly the entire supply was 20K instead of 6K (I'd run the price up to 10K each, they proceeded to double it).

And inside two hours, five different people bought the same amount of webs the RMTs had bought out- for 20K each. And new people who hadn't had a thing to do with the whole thing were selling at the new price, too.

How'd I know they were RMT? Same mule was hitting me with RMT adspam a week later.

Modern day, this really doesn't happen anymore. But when the odds of getting your RMT cockroaches stomped was lower, it most assuredly did.

i knew a ton of legit players that would do the exact same thing so what you're saying is kind of hearsay in my opinion. in fact when math came out on KI or wherever it was that hagun was way better than shinsoku i probably bought 15-20 of them, made a ton reselling them and i had no affiliation with RMT at the time

[dasva]

I know people in this game have RMT'd for years. I just seriously don't give a shit about it and go on about my business. Didn't stop me from making two relics and I still didn't have to spend a dime irl to do it.

P.S. Yes I could have easily bought gil but I personally have this thing about playing by the rules of the game. I don't judge on other people for it but I just feel that keeping myself to a standard makes the game more enjoyable for myself.

It also somewhat can depend on the exact exchange and subjective value. Like even at the amount that d44kpunk says it is at now compared to how easy it is to make gil or just straight farm whatever it doesn't really seem worth it unless you really can't get on and have significant amounts of disposable income. I can't even imagine how someone would pay $30 for 1 mil even back when it 1 mil was a lot.

[Cyleena]

I dunno, my friend (with that account) had several infractions already. The perma ban arrived because he got caught several other times and received many other bans already.
So more like nth chance in his case.
I love my friend, we still talk to each other almost every day and he says the same things I'm saying. He's of course happy he pulled that out, but his is an example where the permaban should have NOT been rolled back.

I am all for second chances, but when it's like your 5th one then a perma has to stay perma, period.

Hmmm wonder if you are talking about someone I know...might not be but we both kinda know a few ppl that could fit in this lol


Speaking of which I used to have a old ls leader that would never account for bank, would not post bank transactions on website, and the bank mysteriously kept getting empty...pretty sure he was RMTing, and using the ls to help him out with it.

[Sephiran]

I love prism although this file ended up smaller than intended. Whatever, I'm not convinced on tapering yet. We would need several more months of data.

Try a linear-logarithmic plot. It makes things with a large vertical variation more visible and manageable.

~650, ~650, ~650, ~650, ~750, ~600

That doesn't look like tapering off? (Would need May's to be 500~550ish or lower for a trend of bans tapering off to be indicative.)
That's a pretty consistent graph with a bump there in March (750ish).

Over the years though there HAS been a decline, but that's more likely due to the smaller over all population.

...killjoy.

Indeed. I know that this does not constitute tapering yet (hence the sarcastic horn-tooting and the Simpsons video). I honestly don't know what May will look like since I haven't been looking at the total number twice per day. Remember: it appears to take 30 days for a banned account to be considered inactive and I gave my observations at the start of May--which means I was basically going off the rate of decline at the beginning of April and end of March, extrapolating the pattern for the month of April. This process is an example of linear approximation. I haven't been watching the stats as closely now (it's finals week...and I've got a lot of other much harder math I need to do), so I honestly can't make a call as to what May will be. Also, we have a new rate to consider: the influx of people from the Return to Vana'diel Campaign. This is not something that I can work around since I have no idea how much it will shift the numbers by. I'm honestly just gonna wait for a response from FFXIAH for the purpose of backing up my first estimation. It's a matter of pride at this point.

Anyway, I'd like to show you all this though. A while back there was worry that using stats in which the old servers were still affecting would skew the perceived rates of change. I made this delightful and colorful graph of two polynomial functions. The second is the first but with a constant added onto it.



As you can see, the slopes of the tangent lines (linear approximations) are the same--despite the additive distortion.

It wasn't an LS I was part of. I'm far too gimp for them, lol.

Come to think of it, another LS was similarly decimated at around the same time. I mean, it's possible that some could have quit because of the November announcement, but if that's what happened, they did it en masse and almost in sync.

It's probably one of the EG shells for whom I whip my parties into shape before going on mixed runs with in an effort to make myself look and feel better.

[D44kpunk]

just so you know...

"About the Special Task Force (STF)
The Special Task Force is a full-time team working to ensure a smooth and balanced game environment through the suppression of unethical conduct that negatively impacts users’ FINAL FANTASY XI experience. The STF focuses primarily on the elimination of RMT (real-money trading), use of external programs, and other activities that fall outside the scope of GM supervision. Furthermore, the STF utilizes information from GM reports in developing countermeasures against RMT activities and a wide range of violations."

this description really makes it sound like the STF would have nothing to do with your every day bans for 3rd party programs, mainly RMT and exploitation. please stop.

to elaborate, the most recent bans i don't think would fall under these monthly reports based on the fact that they seem relatively automated

[Sephiran]

just so you know...

"About the Special Task Force (STF)
The Special Task Force is a full-time team working to ensure a smooth and balanced game environment through the suppression of unethical conduct that negatively impacts users’ FINAL FANTASY XI experience. The STF focuses primarily on the elimination of RMT (real-money trading), use of external programs, and other activities that fall outside the scope of GM supervision. Furthermore, the STF utilizes information from GM reports in developing countermeasures against RMT activities and a wide range of violations."

this description really makes it sound like the STF would have nothing to do with your every day bans for 3rd party programs, mainly RMT and exploitation. please stop.

to elaborate, the most recent bans i don't think would fall under these monthly reports based on the fact that they seem relatively automated

The description says third-party programs. Explicitly. It would indeed fall under their jurisdiction. It also says that they use GM reports. Keep in mind that GM's take note of player reports and I don't think that it's horrifically far out of the ballpark to assume they...you know...do something with that information.

[Cyleena]

The recent bans did seem automated but at the same time RMT were hit with them as well. I would see tons of /anon rmt (pretty sure they were RMT anyway) botting in Foret to get sparks to cash in for gil. All the characters were wearing sparks gear, and minimum equipment to just get the jobs done and the mobs killed. They would not use trusts, and there was a lot of them there at different camps for hours on end. You would only see them zone in and out to cash sparks in for gil then they were right back at it. It was really annoying for people that wanted to get merits, or do ROE legitimately who had to fight them for mobs. There was never any camps open to get merits back before the first most recent big bans. After the recent big bans all those /anon char in that zone went poof. Sure it was probably automatic bans cause of botting or w/e and I am sure they got lots of complaints against them but nothing was done until the big ban waves hit.

[Cyleena]

The description says third-party programs. Explicitly. It would indeed fall under their jurisdiction. It also says that they use GM reports. Keep in mind that GM's take note of player reports and I don't think that it's horrifically far out of the ballpark to assume they...you know...do something with that information.

Now days its hard to get a GM to actually reply to you though. You either get messages saying please visit our website and report it to STF or this or that. I remember the days when GM actually answered calls but those days are few and far in between now.

I guess it depends on the GM and how nice of a GM they are if they will bother to reply. I had a friend quit the game and as part of his game goodbye he contacted a GM and the GM actually was really cool and had a nice long chat with him, let him take pictures of them chatting etc.

[dasva]

Now days its hard to get a GM to actually reply to you though. You either get messages saying please visit our website and report it to STF or this or that. I remember the days when GM actually answered calls but those days are few and far in between now.

I guess it depends on the GM and how nice of a GM they are if they will bother to reply. I had a friend quit the game and as part of his game goodbye he contacted a GM and the GM actually was really cool and had a nice long chat with him, let him take pictures of them chatting etc.

Also depends on what you call them for. Like a few weeks ago there was some guy that was basically trying to get banned by responding to any yell/shout with random insults and profanity. That got a GM real quick lol

[Cyleena]

Also depends on what you call them for. Like a few weeks ago there was some guy that was basically trying to get banned by responding to any yell/shout with random insults and profanity. That got a GM real quick lol

We get people like that all the time on Asura and they still on the game. Asura towns are known for their crazy drama insulting shouts and yells. lol

I have had recent server transfers join my shell, and they always are surprised by what is said in town in yells and shouts. And its not that we do not report it, it is just sometimes it seems like the GM do not want to leave their dinner to deal with it. lol

[Cyleena]

Guess SE banned more today from what I am hearing some temp bans went out, maybe perm too idk.

[bungiefan]

Now days its hard to get a GM to actually reply to you though. You either get messages saying please visit our website and report it to STF or this or that. I remember the days when GM actually answered calls but those days are few and far in between now.

I guess it depends on the GM and how nice of a GM they are if they will bother to reply. I had a friend quit the game and as part of his game goodbye he contacted a GM and the GM actually was really cool and had a nice long chat with him, let him take pictures of them chatting etc.

It's hard to get a GM for a legit issue as well. I do logins every day, but I'm usually only on the play for a block of 4 hours or so one day a week. I suually have to call a GM 3 weeks in a row to not get directed to the forum. My Lightbringer mission has been glitched since November 2013, to where I can't complete it to switch to Bastok for my last chain of core missions, and it was escalated to the dev team then. I have checked on it every few months, can't complete the mission, and the GMs say the devs haven't even opened the ticket yet. I got a GM again about 2 weeks ago who said he was escalating to SGM and then I've had silence since.

I also have to call them saying my character is stuck, which starts an automatic rezone in 10 minutes if I don't get a response.

[Sephiran]

It's hard to get a GM for a legit issue as well. I do logins every day, but I'm usually only on the play for a block of 4 hours or so one day a week. I suually have to call a GM 3 weeks in a row to not get directed to the forum. My Lightbringer mission has been glitched since November 2013, to where I can't complete it to switch to Bastok for my last chain of core missions, and it was escalated to the dev team then. I have checked on it every few months, can't complete the mission, and the GMs say the devs haven't even opened the ticket yet. I got a GM again about 2 weeks ago who said he was escalating to SGM and then I've had silence since.

I also have to call them saying my character is stuck, which starts an automatic rezone in 10 minutes if I don't get a response.

Those same automated messages tell you that the name has been taken if you report someone who sent you an RMT tell.

[Sechs]

Hmmm wonder if you are talking about someone I know...

I'm talking about an italian WoW player, I don't see how you could possibly know him lol

[FaeQueenCory]

...killjoy.

Indeed. I know that this does not constitute tapering yet (hence the sarcastic horn-tooting and the Simpsons video). I honestly don't know what May will look like since I haven't been looking at the total number twice per day. Remember: it appears to take 30 days for a banned account to be considered inactive and I gave my observations at the start of May--which means I was basically going off the rate of decline at the beginning of April and end of March, extrapolating the pattern for the month of April. This process is an example of linear approximation. I haven't been watching the stats as closely now (it's finals week...and I've got a lot of other much harder math I need to do), so I honestly can't make a call as to what May will be. Also, we have a new rate to consider: the influx of people from the Return to Vana'diel Campaign. This is not something that I can work around since I have no idea how much it will shift the numbers by. I'm honestly just gonna wait for a response from FFXIAH for the purpose of backing up my first estimation. It's a matter of pride at this point.

Anyway, I'd like to show you all this though. A while back there was worry that using stats in which the old servers were still affecting would skew the perceived rates of change. I made this delightful and colorful graph of two polynomial functions. The second is the first but with a constant added onto it.



As you can see, the tangent lines (linear approximations) are the same--despite the additive distortion.

LoL why would anyone think that dead servers would skew the data? That's just a simple displacement in the manner your graphs show. (cause 300 bans and -3000 on the server death would be carried over by the assumed merge, as in those people should all be listed for the data in the new server.... but then that assumes SE took Intro to Statistics...)
An influx of people on the other hand (which is a true gain and not a gain of 0 like a server merge is) will skew things slightly... but I don't think it will with regards to bannings.
Unless those returning are returning from previously banned accounts, possibly increasing the likelihood of them cheating again and getting banned.
But I feel like that's a minority that can be dismissed. (as in those people inflating "re"banning numbers shouldn't be all that large)

Then again...
I'm starting to see people CP bot right outside of Adoulin again...
So...
smh.

[Cyleena]

I'm talking about an italian WoW player, I don't see how you could possibly know him lol

Oh Sechsy you totally know how I attract crazy weird people out of the blue to me...

[Montag]

Sephiran: Did you read that article you posted on linear approximation? What you are doing with the FFXIAH data is not taking the linear approximation, not to mention the linear approximation of f(x) (per the wiki article you linked) still depends on the evaluation of the function at a, which means the linear approximation of those two curves at point a would actually be different and dependent on the original offset. I know this has a little to do with your math, but seriously please stop using that terminology incorrectly. The value of the derivative at a is the same for both curves. The linear approximation of f(x) is not.

What it seems like you are actually doing, since you keep talking about rate of change, is take the derivative of a linear fit of what is basically a simple line/scatter graph of data from FFXIAH and using that number to say whether bans are "increasing" or "decreasing." Which may or may not be correct, but seriously, so many confounding variables affecting server populations.

[BerenTebogo]

Yeah there is a whole lot wrong with the terminology and approximation methods used.

Ultimately it isn't worth getting into, but obviously if you have x^2 and x^2 + a the derivatives are the same. Do you need a plot to tell you that? Have you passed basic calculus?

Look at my plot that I then shifted up or down! Marvel at how the derivative of a function + a constant is the same as the derivative where the constant = 0!

Also I refuse to read that wall of text that ends in shit math but if you're using linear fits to polynomial of degree > 1 data, lol, stop. Interpolation .

[Hoshiku]

Try a linear-logarithmic plot. It makes things with a large vertical variation more visible and manageable.

Ahh, I'm used to making graphs for cellularity in which case they don't like log graphs, hence the two breaks in the axis. :X

[Sephiran]

Sephiran: Did you read that article you posted on linear approximation? What you are doing with the FFXIAH data is not taking the linear approximation, not to mention the linear approximation of f(x) (per the wiki article you linked) still depends on the evaluation of the function at a, which means the linear approximation of those two curves at point a would actually be different and dependent on the original offset. I know this has a little to do with your math, but seriously please stop using that terminology incorrectly. The value of the derivative at a is the same for both curves. The linear approximation of f(x) is not.

What it seems like you are actually doing, since you keep talking about rate of change, is take the derivative of a linear fit of what is basically a simple line/scatter graph of data from FFXIAH and using that number to say whether bans are "increasing" or "decreasing." Which may or may not be correct, but seriously, so many confounding variables affecting server populations.

Linear approximation is the best way to demonstrate graphically that the rates of change at the point are the same. By definition, the derivative is the slope of the tangent line (Taylor series of degree 1 at a = the point of interest, aka linear approximation at a). That slope, is all I care about--as you and SethFenrir pointed out. Believe me, if I just showed a CAS system outputting the same derivatives from both functions people who haven't taken basic calc would say I edited the output field. Need something more graphic.

Yeah there is a whole lot wrong with the terminology and approximation methods used.

Ultimately it isn't worth getting into, but obviously if you have x^2 and x^2 + a the derivatives are the same. Do you need a plot to tell you that? Have you passed basic calculus?

Look at my plot that I then shifted up or down! Marvel at how the derivative of a function + a constant is the same as the derivative where the constant = 0!

Also I refuse to read that wall of text that ends in shit math but if you're using linear fits to polynomial of degree > 1 data, lol, stop. Interpolation .

Well duh the elementary colorful graphs aren't going to impress you. You already know how calculus works. Again, this is a grossly oversimplified demonstration for those who aren't familiar with it. The calculus itself isn't even necessary, I just cited the derivative rules and gave a graphic demonstration to show that the presence of constants have no effect since people said around ten pages back that the DB page was bogus because it counted the dead servers. The actual rate of decrease throughout the month of March has been very consistent. Each day I'd wake up with about the same decrease reflecting on the DB page. Do a linear fit on that (which really in this case is just the equation of a line you used in Algebra I), and poof, you can attempt to make a call about what April's end number will look like--which is, by definition extrapolation. You are correct about potentially higher accuracy had I used a polynomial regression, but for a number that changed practically the same amount each day, it seemed unnecessary. And the linear approximation of a line, is what? The same line, with the derivative being the slope of said line. The same derivative that isn't affected by the presence of constants. I'm aware that using calculus on lines is overkill, but off the top of my head, using the constant rule of derivatives a couple weeks back just seemed like the fastest way to prove that the dead servers weren't affecting rates of change.

Anyway, I got the email in from the FFXIAH webmaster:

30 days was my assumption too. And thank you for keeping me on my toes, SethFenrir and Montag.