2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Andalusian girls]

we shouldn't trust any of them, or rather we can trust them all to behave according to their nature which universally is ambitious, vain, and megalomaniacal

LMAO. Actually some of us had been predicting this drop out for over 2 months now. Donald Trump is indirectly the reason.

Expect Jindal, Graham, Huckabee, Santorum, and Christie to drop out of the race as well in less than 2 months.

If Kasich and Bush can hold on for at least 4-5 more dropouts, they will win big by virtue of becoming establishment, but moderate alternatives to the current leading three.

concur with your primary thrust that Trump's lead will evaporate as the moderate and establishment wings of the party can coalesce around a single figure + Donald's universal name recognition becomes less significant once the median voter can actually name all the other candidates.

however, Kasich is ded in the water and many of the adult-in-the-room members of the Republican party have to be taking a hard look at Marco Rubio as Jeb's support falters and Walker packs it in. though of a mild tenor compared to Fiorina's steely fireworks the consensus is he performed as well as any in both debates, he shares similar strengths with Jeb in possessing a built-in Hispanic outreach persona + hailing from the most important state in a presidential election, and critically he does not share the weakness of a toxic last name and unpopular status quo legacy that has so often tripped up Bush in the media circuit.

the fight is hardly over and hardwired with massive amounts of uncertainty (who would have anticipated Jindal outlasting Walker six months ago?), and even the strongest candidate possesses nothing more than a plurality when measuring their chances probabilistically signifying every single candidate is more likely to lose than to win. Jeb does maintain a massive fundraising advantage that will become more important when money actually begins to be spent, but a candidate Rubio, with say Fiorina as a running mate to deflect the war on women attack path Hillary is already pursuing, could be very viable indeed. Much more so than the comically inept Mormon/Palin tickets of the past few cycles.

[6souls]

Chris Wallace with that decent journalism for once. We give Trump shit for being a pompous asshole, but Fiorina is the real deal scumbag type of politician who we shouldn't trust, despite the side of the aisle we fall on.

I think it shows that Fox/Murdoch doesn't want Florina to win the nomination. The other candidates wouldn't get questions or grilled like that.

[Thunder]

LOL she doubled down on her claim that the video exists.

I wonder if there's even risk associated with this. Like, even if the video doesn't exist and she knows it, will her numbers get hurt if 6 months down the line it gets "proven" that it doesn't exist? On the count of proving a negative statement is impossible (ex. god)

"it does! it does! they're liars! faith! believe! listen and believe!"

Even if she wanted to tell the truth because in between the time she made that statement she found out it was fake, she can't. No risk involved in doubling down, and inevitable numbers hit if you backtrack.

Politics is so fucked.

[Tyrath]

Oh I have no doubt she will only gain from the lie. Ignorant people will flock to her side due to it.

But its still amusing to me. Because if it wasn't amusing I'd be sad about how politics works.

[Charismatic]

Chris Wallace with that decent journalism for once.

I think it shows that Fox/Murdoch doesn't want Florina to win the nomination. The other candidates wouldn't get questions or grilled like that.

Man, ya'll niggas clearly do not know about Chris Wallace. Dude grills peeps on the regular regardless of party affiliation.

[Sho]

we shouldn't trust any of them, or rather we can trust them all to behave according to their nature which universally is ambitious, vain, and megalomaniacal



concur with your primary thrust that Trump's lead will evaporate as the moderate and establishment wings of the party can coalesce around a single figure + Donald's universal name recognition becomes less significant once the median voter can actually name all the other candidates.

however, Kasich is ded in the water and many of the adult-in-the-room members of the Republican party have to be taking a hard look at Marco Rubio as Jeb's support falters and Walker packs it in. though of a mild tenor compared to Fiorina's steely fireworks the consensus is he performed as well as any in both debates, he shares similar strengths with Jeb in possessing a built-in Hispanic outreach persona + hailing from the most important state in a presidential election, and critically he does not share the weakness of a toxic last name and unpopular status quo legacy that has so often tripped up Bush in the media circuit.

the fight is hardly over and hardwired with massive amounts of uncertainty (who would have anticipated Jindal outlasting Walker six months ago?), and even the strongest candidate possesses nothing more than a plurality when measuring their chances probabilistically signifying every single candidate is more likely to lose than to win. Jeb does maintain a massive fundraising advantage that will become more important when money actually begins to be spent, but a candidate Rubio, with say Fiorina as a running mate to deflect the war on women attack path Hillary is already pursuing, could be very viable indeed. Much more so than the comically inept Mormon/Palin tickets of the past few cycles.

I agree with the uncertainty. Trump has been such a unlikely wrench in the works for Walker, people don't even know. Walker was supposed to be the frontrunner over Bush, if not for Trump joining the race and making it a shit show for the first opening months with wall to wall coverage. Basically got negative press over Wisconsin's economy and had absolutely no air time to push his presidential election to overcome said press. Trump also stole his spot light as the front man on the immigration debate, the only real strong stance he had among conservatives.

Jindal is only lasting for much longer -- I am quite certain he will drop out of the race within next week after he does his Iowa run, if he doesn't cancel the rest of his stops beforehand. Dude has like 0.2 or 0.3%, just as close as Walker.

Koch brothers and other Walker investors are going to buy into Rubio, but he honestly doesn't have a leg to stand on vs Bush. He is indeed better served as a VP, but we'll see how long he wastes time running for the pole position. The irony of the Fiorina/Trump/Carson trifecta is that they are eventually going to cancel each other out with anti-establishment, with Carson coming out on top (IMO), then be defeated by a stronger Rubio or Bush. People will forgo anti-establishment ideals to vote on party lines, which is a very interesting thing to see. Cruz is literally waiting in the wings for Trump to fall, then he'll come like a bat and try to swoop up his supporters.

[Sho]

Man, ya'll niggas clearly do not know about Chris Wallace. Dude grills peeps on the regular regardless of party affiliation.

I know he's center-right and pretty moderate. He does tend to acquiesce due to being on FOX at times, though.

[Gredival]

Koch brothers and other Walker investors are going to buy into Rubio, but he honestly doesn't have a leg to stand on vs Bush. He is indeed better served as a VP, but we'll see how long he wastes time running for the pole position. The irony of the Fiorina/Trump/Carson trifecta is that they are eventually going to cancel each other out with anti-establishment, with Carson coming out on top (IMO), then be defeated by a stronger Rubio or Bush. People will forgo anti-establishment ideals to vote on party lines, which is a very interesting thing to see. Cruz is literally waiting in the wings for Trump to fall, then he'll come like a bat and try to swoop up his supporters.

But if you look deeper into the poll numbers, the anti-establishment is now the majority.

The four governors or former governors and senator (Walker, Kasich, Christie, Jeb, Rubio) who would be formidable general-election candidates add up to being 25%. The top three in the current poll are all hopeless and are good for 53% of the total together.

The Republicans are so angry with "Washington" that they don't care about winning. This is a redux of Christie O'Donnell and the Tea Party throwing a winnable race except on the national level.

[Sho]

But if you look deeper into the poll numbers, the anti-establishment is now the majority.

The four governors or former governors and senator (Walker, Kasich, Christie, Jeb, Rubio) who would be formidable general-election candidates add up to being 25%. The top three in the current poll are all hopeless and are good for 53% of the total together.

The Republicans are so angry with "Washington" that they don't care about winning. This is a redux of Christie O'Donnell and the Tea Party throwing a winnable race except on the national level.

I don't doubt the numbers at all, only that they will cannibalize each other for those votes.

What's interesting is the fact that none of the three are exactly fit for the role. Carson's [flat] tax plan is absolutely atrocious, he obviously hates Muslims, and as soon as people find out that he's liberal on gun laws, his fellow conservatives will frown upon him. Trump hasn't exactly put out any real economic plans, is continuing to act like a school yard bully and tweet on Twitter like a 17 yr old girl about his opponents and the media while creating unneeded spectacle after spectacle to keep his name in the news. Fiorina is currently being exposed as a fraudulent business woman who not only helped tank one of the biggest tech companies in the world, but managed to hedge her bets and profit from it. Lets also not forget that her views on how to deal with Russia currently border on her being a Neocon, something else that her constituents are tired of.

Maybe one day the veil will be lifted and each of the candidates will be revealed for what they really are:

Trump = Conservative Democrat also likely a Stalking Horse for Clinton
Fiorina = Establishment Neocon
Carson = Christian Right Wing Nutter

They definitely are throwing a winnable race, but it's probably for the best. The GOP is a very broken party which needs a new identity which matches this era of politics. This fake imagery of "anti-establishment" isn't it.

[Cantih]

I still say the most likely result that keeps the "GOP" alive would be deep sixing the cronies and crazies, and seeing another defection like in the middle of the century, where blue dog democrats switch over to the "new" GOP.

[Dimmauk]

Ted Cruz on Colbert was very hard to believe as a person let alone a presidential candidate

[notorious bum]

This thread is derail hell, can't even read this shit anymore.

[Thunder]

This thread is derail hell, can't even read this shit anymore.

r u kidding

This is about government in the healthcare sector. That's pretty relevant to the election. Maybe this'll calm you down: https://twitter.com/hillaryclinton/s...74772275408896

[Gredival]

I've pruned the posts. Anything that's related to candidate statements/plans on pharma/healthcare is still germane and can be posted. But generic discussion of how government should regulate drugs or how drug law should be reformed from current IP law or FDA regs goes in new thread.

[notorious bum]

r u kidding

This is about government in the healthcare sector. That's pretty relevant to the election. Maybe this'll calm you down: https://twitter.com/hillaryclinton/s...74772275408896

Hilldog playing catch-up to the Bern campaign, what's new? I wonder how much money she will designate for astroturfers on the ground to try to get cool with the young people like Bernie.

[archibaldcrane]

Hillary came out against the Keystone XL pipeline today.

I think it's a pretty overblown issue honestly, and that the Dems should use it as an opportunity to bargain with the Republicans - say attach it to a $11/hr federal minimum wage bill or something, or hell even an infrastructure spending bill so we don't have to rely constantly on continuing resolutions to get anything done and just pass the damn thing.

[kuronosan]

Wasn't she for it before?

[Gredival]

I believe the quote was something like "It's one of my favorite issues to discuss, I'll be releasing a policy paper on it shortly..."

The typical uber-cautious posturing that makes her a great politician, but makes it obvious she is actually a politician thus making people dislike her.

[archibaldcrane]

Wasn't she for it before?

She never had a stated opinion.

[Sho]

Wasn't she for it before?

She may as well should have been called the architect of it. It's easily swept under the rug as something that she was doing for her then boss, Obama. She wasted too much time on not giving an opinion out of "respect" to the administration. I do find her positioning very interesting however, she's knowingly starting to put some distance between herself and the Obama administration.

Actually now that I think about it, I'm wondering if the Pope will spend some time with Joe Biden while he's here -- Biden is a Roman Catholic, and will be attending mass (he also stays about 5-10 minutes away from where the Pope will reside). He'll then go with the Pope to attend a joint session of Congress after mass in which the Pope will give a speech and Biden will preside. Biden is a pretty kindred spirit as well, very interesting if he gets into contact with the Pope and is helped on overcoming his loss to run for president. It's like the stars will align for this man or something.