2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Ksandra]

A good 0% of dems and minorities will vote for Trump, and a lot of older conservatives are flocking to Sanders. A Trump vs Sanders matchup will be the largest landslide for Sanders in US history.

Minorities, possibly. But you'd have to be a severe dreamer to think 0% of dems or repubs wouldn't vote for any particular candidate. You forget even Kim Davis until like yesterday was a Dem. It may be a shock to you, but not all that consider themselves Dems are liberal progressives. It's not an eye-color. People can call themselves w/e party they want no matter what they believe.

Yes, the general democratic populous is leaning more and more to the left, but there are many still on the moderate line. Sanders is more ingrained in the political system, but leans extremely left and offers very little to the moderate repubs. Trump, while a celebrity, has at least some ideas that would sit will with moderate dems. e.g. wants to get rid of common core, doesn't like obamacare (any repub saying otherwise would be political suicide), but hinted at working at it rather than fucking it over and try to put it back the way it was, etc.

Trump has also obsessed about jobs. Which is what everyone wants. Sanders has talked about the minimum wage raise, which is great for liberals, but conservatives think it's a handout. On the otherhand, just the general thought of everyone actually having a job pleases both sides of the aisle a little bit.

This is all theoretical so who knows, I am willing to admit Sanders could push through. But I'd definitely have to see it to believe he'd win by a landslide. Especially "the largest landslide in US history." That is insane to me.

[archibaldcrane]

Except 50% of Americans said they would not vote for a socialist.. Not sure what kinda landslide includes less than 50% of Americans.

Everyone has a plan until they get Trumped in the face.

[Kyte]

I'm pretty sure at least 50% have said that they wouldn't vote for a Fascist.

[Ksandra]

Only in 2015 is this line viable. Can only imagine someone saying this very thing anytime since TV's beginnings.

Well yeah. People wouldn't have said TV anything before TV existed. THIS IS SILLINESS SHO.


With that said, if you look back, it is not TOO surprising. I mean Johnson was a tailor before going into politics. The problem is not that Trump is a reality star. It's that he is a reality star that jumped straight to the presidency before getting into a lower political position first.

[notorious bum]

http://www.bernysanders.com/

In NH, Bernie leads Trump by 20 points, Clinton leads him by 8 points
http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmurcnn...biden/35486546

[Sho]

Well yeah. People wouldn't have said TV anything before TV existed. THIS IS SILLINESS SHO.


With that said, if you look back, it is not TOO surprising. I mean Johnson was a tailor before going into politics. The problem is not that Trump is a reality star. It's that he is a reality star that jumped straight to the presidency before getting into a lower political position first.

Hay! I meant since the beginnings, so after television was a normalized thing.

[Ksandra]

Hay! I meant since the beginnings, so after television was a normalized thing.

ahhh, well then!

Even then I think my point still stands. Reagan was an actor, Schwarzenegger was an actor, Frankin was on freakin' SNL, etc. And during all of their campaigns the doubtful were saying, "But he's an actor!" The difference between them and Trump is they all started out small when going into politics. He went straight for the endgame.

[Sho]

ahhh, well then!

Even then I think my point still stands. Reagan was an actor, Schwarzenegger was an actor, Frankin was on freakin' SNL, etc. And during all of their campaigns the doubtful were saying, "But he's an actor!" The difference between them and Trump is they all started out small when going into politics. He went straight for the endgame.

I agree with ya all the way. It's actually very different for him since he is a TV reality star, because he's had hyper exposure for all of these years. It's just a shame he has the mindset of a 16 or 17 yr old high school bully when it comes to politics.

[Rooney]

Apparently there's talk of conservatives going after McConnell now. They're going to burn the place down before we even get to the election.

[thetruepandagod]

[Gredival]

You really think Trump won't win at least a couple states? You think Mississippi and Alabama are going to vote for a socialist over a reality TV star? C'mon son.

Only in 2015 is this line viable. Can only imagine someone saying this very thing anytime since TV's beginnings.

California, the second most blue state in the nation, sent Arnold to the Governor's mansion.

At a certain point, incompetence that should translate to un-electability becomes incomprehensible massive popular appeal.

Trump would slaughter Sanders in a general election. If you think differently, please take a vacation to the deep South for 3+ months.

Honestly I think this is why some of you think there should even be a debate with Clinton vs. Sanders. You don't have any idea what the electorate actually looks like. Forget Black Lives Matter -- I was investigating a string of straight up LYNCHINGS being covered up by the police as suicides a few years ago.

http://www.bernysanders.com/

In NH, Bernie leads Trump by 20 points, Clinton leads him by 8 points
http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmurcnn...biden/35486546

When did NH become the bell-weather state for the general election?

[notorious bum]

When did NH become the bell-weather state for the general election?

lol I have no clue man, I'm just posting whatever I can find whenever I get time to provide more insight. Could compare the sizes of crowd draws at rallies and events between them for funsies?

[Cantih]

California, the second most blue state in the nation, sent Arnold to the Governor's mansion.

tbf, Arnold was a very left republican, and on a number of occasions told his republican counterparts in the legislature to fuck off.
Also, democratic focus in the recall was on NO, instead of running candidates. The only democratic option was Bustamante who broke ranks, and well, fuck Bustamante anyway.

When did NH become the bell-weather state for the general election?

"If a candidate is doing better in New Hampshire polls than he is in national polls, and that candidate does well in Iowa, that provides very powerful evidence that this increase in information works to the benefit of that candidate."- Nate Silver, circa 2007

"New Hampshire polls are a leading indicator to national polls. Voters are more engaged and more informed in New Hampshire than they are nationally. As the primary season progresses, voters continue to become better engaged and informed, until the actual voting takes place, when the voters are presumably as informed as they ever will be." - Nate Silver, circa 2007

Remember, Iowa and New Hampshire are the first primaries, often by months. They may not give many delegates, but they set the stage for Super Tuesday.

[BerenTebogo]

Which is pretty hilarious since NH is basically taking a mix of Lousiana, Arkansas, and Texas and then mixing it all in a bowl and adding winter coats.

[Charismatic]

Praise the internet

[Gredival]

lol I have no clue man, I'm just posting whatever I can find whenever I get time to provide more insight. Could compare the sizes of crowd draws at rallies and events between them for funsies?

But how does this provide any insight?

I don't doubt for one second that there are a huge amount of people excited by Bernie because he's the first politician they have ever trusted that is honest and embraces a platform they connect with.

I just don't think it's relevant at all. I've stated repeatedly that elections aren't won by grass roots enthusiasm. Bernie can draw a 1,000,000 person crowd at a rally. He could win 100% of the vote under 25. None of that matters if he doesn't get 270 electoral votes.

Ultimately the only things about a voter that matter are a) where he or she lives and b) will he or she actually go to the polls.

[Not Kuno]

in '84, Reagan won all but 1 fucking state.

You really think Trump won't win at least a couple states? You think Mississippi and Alabama are going to vote for a socialist over a reality TV star? C'mon son.

Oh right. Forgot about that landslide. Trump is so absolutely polarizing I'm sure he'll get a few states, and get slaughtered elsewhere. The only reason he's doing well is because ever other republican candidate is a huge joke like him. The GOP is facing an existential crisis where a lot of moderate republicans have no idea who to look too, and Clinton is kryptonite to republican voters. I can easily see Sanders grabbing everyone but the tea party nutters. Of course he has to beat Hillary first and that's a whole other issue (and tbh way harder than winning against any GOP in the GE)

[Marootsoobutsu]

Oh right. Forgot about that landslide. Trump is so absolutely polarizing I'm sure he'll get a few states, and get slaughtered elsewhere. The only reason he's doing well is because ever other republican candidate is a huge joke like him. The GOP is facing an existential crisis where a lot of moderate republicans have no idea who to look too, and Clinton is kryptonite to republican voters. I can easily see Sanders grabbing everyone but the tea party nutters. Of course he has to beat Hillary first and that's a whole other issue (and tbh way harder than winning against any GOP in the GE)

Interesting note: Conservative Republicans are far more educated than moderate Republicans or liberal Republicans, especially about politics. Republicans, moderate or otherwise, are most likely voting R, no matter whose name is beside it. You don't CARE about them once the primaries are over. You care about the independents.

And the Independents who aren't gung-ho enthusiastic for Sanders now are going to be *terrified* of him when the GOP is done. The elderly are DEFINITELY not leaning his way, and the middle-class are mostly middle-aged folk who are over their Socialism Faze, or who grew up learning to hate/fear it in the first place. If you think Sanders can "easily... [grab] everyone but the tea party nutters," you are severely out of touch with the electorate outside your own circle.

[Gredival]

Trump is so absolutely polarizing I'm sure he'll get a few states, and get slaughtered elsewhere. The only reason he's doing well is because ever other republican candidate is a huge joke like him.

And no matter who emerges from the circus I would bet my life that they will 100% lock up the following 160 EV's against whoever the Democrats eventually select:

- ID (4)
- MT (3)
- UT (6)
- WY (3)
- ND (3)
- SD (3)
- NE (5)
- KS (6)
- OK (7)
- TX (38)
- LA (8)
- MS (6)
- MO (10)
- KY (8)
- TN (11)
- AL (9)
- GA (16)
- SC (9)
- WV (5)

And if you doubt that, distance yourself from your younger, college-educated, relatively affluent circles and spend some time with some flyover state folks. These states have electorates comprised of Kim Davises.

Now there's about 70 more EVs in states that Romney carried in that aren't guaranteed locks for any (R) candidate, but I would feel confident in predicting are more definitely likely to vote for Trump than the crazy socialist but COULD be in play if we use Biden or Clinton (states like Indiana).

But we don't even need to get that far if we just look at the kingmaker group: CO (9), FL (29), IA (6), NV (6), NH (4), NC (15), OH (18), VA (13), WI (10)

To reach 270, Bernie can only lose a maximum of 33 EV's from this group assuming that he carries every state that Obama won in '12 (with the caveat that bringing FL or NC to his side gives him breathing room). I think he loses 41 automatically - OH, VA, WI - and that he has no chance of getting FL or NC to flip.

Let's go state by state.

VA - This is easy pickings for the GOP. Obama carried only by the slimmest of margins (.3%) so there is absolutely no margin for error in losing any moderates here. Obama lost a substantial amount of ground here between 08 and 12, which indicates that his "liberal" first term was too far left for VA. Hell, Mark Warner almost lost his midterm here.

NC - NC is basically a slightly redder version of VA. It went for Romney by 3% points after Obama barely carried it in 08. If Obama lost ground for being too liberal here, Bernie has no chance.

FL - The Northern half of FL is basically deep South. Additionally all the retirees in the South tend to skew to the right as well as the Cuban immigrants. The Democrats have the non-Cuban minorities and other urban city population. This dynamic ultimately favors the GOP. Romney carried this by 1.5% after Obama carried in 08 by 3%. They also just sent Skeletor back to the Governor's mansion when he was challenged by Charlie Crist, who's significantly more moderate than Obama (being a Republican originally after all). I don't see Bernie keeping all of Obama's voters, much less winning over people scared of a radical GOP candidate at a pace that outstrips the voters he would lose by being a "radical" socialist.

WI - They let Walker stay in the Governor's mansion despite his primary accomplishment being abolishing organized labor. If the electorate is willing to let Walker do that, I can't imagine that there's enough people to get energized by a $15 minimum wage to keep this in Bernie's column.

OH - Fringe of the Bible belt. The moderates here will not be comfortable with the "radicalism" of Bernie's socialism. On top of that, a GOP candidate that throws red meat to the conservatives here can likely swing the state purely by playing a better ground game than Romney.

For what it's worth I think Bernie has a great shot at the rest of those swing states, but the right-leaning moderates in these five states are what matter. If he can't woo them, then it's a thrown election.

The GOP is facing an existential crisis where a lot of moderate republicans have no idea who to look too, and Clinton is kryptonite to republican voters. I can easily see Sanders grabbing everyone but the tea party nutters. Of course he has to beat Hillary first and that's a whole other issue (and tbh way harder than winning against any GOP in the GE)

Think for just one second. Most of those people hate Clinton because they associate her with being too liberal. They reflect on the Reagan years fondly and think of the Clinton years as terrible (but not as terrible as Obama).

And you think these people are going to vote for Sanders?

[zoobernut]

My 82 year old father just declared to me he is voting for Sanders because he graduated from the same high school as my dad.