2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Sho]

California, the second most blue state in the nation, sent Arnold to the Governor's mansion.

At a certain point, incompetence that should translate to un-electability becomes incomprehensible massive popular appeal.

Trump would slaughter Sanders in a general election. If you think differently, please take a vacation to the deep South for 3+ months.

Honestly I think this is why some of you think there should even be a debate with Clinton vs. Sanders. You don't have any idea what the electorate actually looks like. Forget Black Lives Matter -- I was investigating a string of straight up LYNCHINGS being covered up by the police as suicides a few years ago.

I have an idea of what the electorate looks like. However, when speaking of at least the GOP, I can tell you right now it's insanely fractured, with Boehner leaving being the result. I've stated this a few months ago, but with Trump's inclusion (and since before it), the GOP is now split into:

1) The far right crazies -- bigots and racists (Tea Party)
2) Typical Conservatives
3) Moderates
4) Old age Eisenhower-era, liberal thinking Republicans

Trump has appealed to the first three types, but even that support is dwindling. I wonder if it's worth speaking in hypotheticals now if he won't even have such a lead (or lead at all) in 2 or 3 months from now. There's no way Sanders is beating Clinton in the primaries either, because he wouldn't appeal at all to any moderate Republicans or right leaning Independents.

I think in a hypothetical match between Sanders and Trump, Trump would win, only because Sanders would be an immovable object on his views towards the right. He wouldn't get slaughtered, but a lot of centrists in the Democratic party would not vote for him (and not vote at all for Trump, lol).

Everyone has a plan until they get Trumped in the face.

There's a great irony in this post, at least when thinking of Walker.

[Quicklet]

Man, you guys are way more cynical than I would have expected. I mean, at this point I think the Democrats could nominate a ham sandwich and have better than even odds of beating the best GOP candidate this cycle.

[Sho]

Man, you guys are way more cynical than I would have expected. I mean, at this point I think the Democrats could nominate a ham sandwich and have better than even odds of beating the best GOP candidate this cycle.

http://rlv.zcache.com/ham_sandwich_f..._8byvr_512.jpg

[archibaldcrane]

I think everyone is being wildly overconfident in their predictions of something as unprecedented as Trump vs. Sanders.

I think a lot of conventional wisdom goes out the window in that matchup.

Rubio or Bush vs. Hillary? Conventional wisdom away.

[Roranora]

I think everyone is being wildly overconfident in their predictions of something as unprecedented as Trump vs. Sanders.

Thank you. I might say it'd be a record voter turnout, but that's about it.

While it's not possible due to our system, I'd love to see the results of a popular election of Bush vs Trump vs Clinton vs Sanders. If nothing else, it'd illustrate well how divided this country truly is.

[Ksandra]

I think everyone is being wildly overconfident in their predictions of something as unprecedented as Trump vs. Sanders.

I think a lot of conventional wisdom goes out the window in that matchup.

Rubio or Bush vs. Hillary? Conventional wisdom away.

Ok, party pooper.

I think both your options will not have a landslide victory on either side of the aisle. In theory, Rubio isn't strong enough. However, Hillary has a lot more baggage that will be thrown at her imo. Ultimately, I think Hillary would still win.

Hillary and Bush? Very very close. Both are "dynasties" which negate each other. Bush has less baggage outside of being a Bush. I think he'd win.

[Tyrath]

I don't think he suggested landslide victories in the case of Hillary vs Jeb/Rubio??

[Ksandra]

I don't think he suggested landslide victories in the case of Hillary vs Jeb/Rubio??

I am not saying he did? Just giving my predictions which is what he asked for.

[Not Kuno]

Hillary vs GOP will probably be close with Hillary winning. Republicans fight dirty (and hate Hillary) and she'll lose a lot of sway with them. The dems dont give too much of a shit about her scandals (and they really arent that big of a deal), but moderates do and the media eats that shit up.

Sanders is a pretty authentic guy, even if you completely disagree with him. He appeals to moderates and even republicans. That's something Hillary, nor anyone from the GOP is doing. Everyone else is just appealing to their base as hard as they can and praying. But we'll see. The picture will be a lot clearer once we get a few primaries over with.

[Serra]

It doesn't matter how fractured the Republican party is. As long as they field one candidate, declared republicans will only vote for one candidate -- the one with the big R next to their name. As has been mentioned, this, like all presidential elections, is a contest for the moderates.

[Marootsoobutsu]

Hillary vs GOP will probably be close with Hillary winning. Republicans fight dirty (and hate Hillary) and she'll lose a lot of sway with them. The dems dont give too much of a shit about her scandals (and they really arent that big of a deal), but moderates do and the media eats that shit up.

Sanders is a pretty authentic guy, even if you completely disagree with him. He appeals to moderates and even republicans. That's something Hillary, nor anyone from the GOP is doing. Everyone else is just appealing to their base as hard as they can and praying. But we'll see. The picture will be a lot clearer once we get a few primaries over with.

I love how you say that Republicans fight dirty, as if the Democrats don't fight just as dirty.

I like Sanders as a persona, but you are delusional if you think moderates and Republicans are going to vote for him in the generals.

[Tyrath]

Fight dirty? Sure. As dirty as republicans? Naw, they usually don't. If they did, congress wouldn't be in the GOP's hand forever.

[thetruepandagod]

Fight dirty? Sure. As dirty as republicans? Naw, they usually don't. If they did, congress wouldn't be in the GOP's hand forever.

Romney vs Obama, show me how much dirt team Romney threw.

Romney essentially said Obama wasn't a very good president, didn't like his economics or foreign policy, but a nice guy. Overall message, good guy bad president.

Obama's team said that Mitt Romney wants to "put ya'll back in chains", Mitt Romney is fighting a war on women and has even compiled binders full of women to help with his war, Mitt Romney is the kind of guy who would specifically fire someone so that 5 years later his wife would die of cancer lacking health insurance. A rich guy that hates you and chains his dog to the roof of his car. Hillary slung more shit at Obama than Romney did.

[Tyche]

I love how you say that Republicans fight dirty, as if the Democrats don't fight just as dirty.

I like Sanders as a persona, but you are delusional if you think moderates and Republicans are going to vote for him in the generals.

Gerrymandering. Google it.

[Quicklet]

It doesn't matter how fractured the Republican party is. As long as they field one candidate, declared republicans will only vote for one candidate -- the one with the big R next to their name. As has been mentioned, this, like all presidential elections, is a contest for the moderates.

It's also turnout though. If the other side is bad enough, the specter of a president worse than George W Bush would be a pretty good motivator.

[Cantih]

It's also turnout though. If the other side is bad enough, the specter of a president worse than George W Bush would be a pretty good motivator.

And disaffected non-voters, aren't going to come out for an establishment/moderate candidate of the type that put them out in the first place.

[Tyrath]

Romney vs Obama, show me how much dirt team Romney threw.

I was specifically talking about gerrymandering and congressional elections but okay. Fighting dirty involves more than slinging mud.

[Sho]

I just wanted to step outside of the discussion to say all of this shit going on in Philadelphia for the Pope is the most obnoxious shit ever. He's a simple man and would like nothing other than to see the people, not all of this fucking pomp and circumstance, lol.

[Waraji]

I just wanted to step outside of the discussion to say all of this shit going on in Philadelphia for the Pope is the most obnoxious shit ever. He's a simple man and would like nothing other than to see the people, not all of this fucking pomp and circumstance, lol.

It's religion, its all about the pomp and circumstance.

[Melena]

Cruz joked at a fundraiser saying that if the ayatollah of Iran doesn't like having the nuke deal torn up, we can help him get his 72 virgins