2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Ksandra]

If a conglomerate of highly funded/lobbied individuals that is the Republican Party spent the past 7 years digging up every peice of garbage and feeding it to every major network news organization to use as primetime talking points, you'd have been through every bit as much shit as Hillary. She's had a target on her back for 7 years. I mean, what has she done that makes you sit back in disgust? She's been in the political game for a LONG time. Anyone that puts in that much time is going to have skeletons pop out. And can you find me a "trustworthy" politician not named Elizabeth Warren?

I shit you not, faux news the other day was blaming her for her husband's affair. How in the fuck?

[Dimmauk]

I just want to know one thing from you all. With all the garbage Hillary has been through these past 8 years, why in the world would you support her? It doesn't matter what side of the fence you are on politically, she just can't be trusted. I'm not trolling, this is an honest question. I say basically the same thing about Jeb Bush, I don't trust him either, and won't vote for him, even if he was running against Obama.

I trust all of the Republican candidates less than Hillary Clinton .

[Ardrial]

I trust all of the Republican candidates less than Hillary Clinton .

^

[Aksannyi]

I shit you not, faux news the other day was blaming her for her husband's affair. How in the fuck?

Well when you consider that Fox is full of a bunch of misogynists and racists, it's not all that farfetched that Hilary (read: the woman) was to blame. After all, women are just temptresses that lead men astray, they can't help it. (Yes, I'm also referencing Genesis.) And it's a woman's job to keep her husband satisfied so that he doesn't stray, what with all those temptresses out there. I mean, they're just men, after all. They can't help their natural urges. Boys will be boys. She should have kept a better home for him and bent over whenever he wanted! Duh!

I mean this doesn't surprise me in the slightest. They're going to pick her apart as a woman and not a politician. They're going to talk about how "bad" she looks because a woman's appearance is more important than her performance. They're going to talk about her hormones, because Fox generally has a poor understanding of how the female body works (like the fact that Hilary has probably been post-meno for at least a decade, and after menopause sets in, that's when women have the least hormonal fluctuations, but I'm sure they'll conveniently forget that, if they ever actually knew it in the first place).

I mean I really am not a fan, but I'm not surprised at all that the Fox Misogynists are going to find every possible thing they can dump on Hilary solely because she's a woman and add that on top of all the other usual shit they would try to throw at a Democrat running for office.

Yeah, sorry for the rant (okay not really) but Fox is terrible and this doesn't surprise me in the slightest.

[Soa]

My early prediction for 2016:

Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush win the nominations - Hillary is obvious but I think the crazy vote will fracture enough for Jeb to pull out the nomination much like Romney did.

Hillary will win 290-248 in a much closer election than the previous two elections. Jeb will win FL and VA barely but everything else will stay the same.

Dems retake the Senate by basically winning most of the seats Republicans control in Blue states, and the Republicans keep their gerrymandered death grip on the House.

The Senate thing I'm not totally sure about, but I'm almost positive it will be Jeb vs Hillary with Hillary winning a relatively close election.

[archibaldcrane]

My early prediction for 2016:

Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush win the nominations - Hillary is obvious but I think the crazy vote will fracture enough for Jeb to pull out the nomination much like Romney did.

Hillary will win 290-248 in a much closer election than the previous two elections. Jeb will win FL and VA barely but everything else will stay the same.

Dems retake the Senate by basically winning most of the seats Republicans control in Blue states, and the Republicans keep their gerrymandered death grip on the House.

The Senate thing I'm not totally sure about, but I'm almost positive it will be Jeb vs Hillary with Hillary winning a relatively close election.

This is a pretty solid prediction.

[kuronosan]

I agree, although I'm not sold on the idea of voting Democrat just because the alternative is worse.

God damn it.

[Serra]

The candidate is less important to me than the party. If Hillary said she spends her weekend clubbing baby seals (hell, if she said she spends her weekends clubbing human babies), I'd still vote for her as long as the Republican party continues to be the anti-science, anti-intellectual, pro-disenfranchisement, anti-civil rights party.

[archibaldcrane]

This is a pretty solid prediction.

Although Colorado and Nevada may be tougher this time around.

[Andalusian girls]

I just want to know one thing from you all. With all the garbage Hillary has been through these past 8 years, why in the world would you support her? It doesn't matter what side of the fence you are on politically, she just can't be trusted. I'm not trolling, this is an honest question. I say basically the same thing about Jeb Bush, I don't trust him either, and won't vote for him, even if he was running against Obama.

why would you ever trust a politician to do anything other than act according to their nature? and their essential nature is power-hungry vanity, even the ones who govern effectively. Clinton and Reagan were both scandal-ridden liars and yet proved themselves the most successful presidents of Pax Americana.

[Gredival]

“Unless the economy goes into a recession over the next year and a half, Hillary Clinton is probably going to win the presidential election. The United States has polarized into stable voting blocs, and the Democratic bloc is a bit larger and growing at a faster rate.”

“The argument for Clinton in 2016 is that she is the candidate of the only major American political party not run by lunatics. There is only one choice for voters who want a president who accepts climate science and rejects voodoo economics, and whose domestic platform would not engineer the largest upward redistribution of resources in American history. Even if the relatively sober Jeb Bush wins the nomination, he will have to accommodate himself to his party’s barking-mad consensus. She is non-crazy America’s choice by default. And it is not necessarily an exciting choice, but it is an easy one, and a proposition behind which she will probably command a majority.”

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer...ng-to-win.html

Also I'm not sure Jeb will secure the nomination. Sure, Jeb will probably win all all the delegates from states that ultimately go blue in the election. But I feel that the extremists don't realize yet that extremism is why they are losing. They've gotten more outraged over the last four years, and they have more serious candidates this time around than Herman Cain.

[archibaldcrane]

Just don't underestimate Scott Walker. He's very good at appearing reasonable, he is an absolute chameleon who will adopt whatever messaging will poll the best, he's got the Koch money, and Republicans fucking love him.

[Tyrath]

I agree, although I'm not sold on the idea of voting Democrat just because the alternative is worse.

God damn it.

Sadly I don't see another option for this. Because with enough people not voting because of this we'll end up with that worse alternative.

[Sho]

Despite large segments of the base not wanting Jeb to be the nominee, I think there's still enough money in the business and what's left of the moderate wings of the party to ensure that Jeb (or possibly Rubio) survive. Anyone else will get absolutely crushed in the general.

Understand that Jeb is a special case. He's the only GOP nominee who can run WITHOUT the main GOP base's consent and still be a forerunner. Why? Because of Legacy and because he also comes from old money (his family). And you can be sure that the GOP establishment base knows this. The only thing that could honestly keep Jeb out of the running is an upset by way of Rand Paul making strides or the other nominees undermining his agenda with mudslinging.

As you've said however, Rand Paul is scared of taking them on, but with good reason, Jeb's money is long and his is weak. Rubio won't survive because he can't even get the base behind him like the others. On top of this, Rubio has to deal with Jeb Bush in his own way in the eyes of Floridians before he can go national. He won't make it past Florida tbh.

[Sho]

I actually see her as potentially a better leader than Obama. During the first two years of Obama's first term, the Dems had both houses and Obama still struggled to get the ACA passed (and definitely didn't get what he originally envisioned passed). Maybe I'm wrong, but I see Hillary as not standing for that shit from her own party. I'm predicting whichever party wins the presidency is also going to win both houses of Congress as well, so I imagine things will actually get done -- one way or another..

Obama is a better president than Hilary could be, he just fucked up big time wasting his first two years on pie in the sky policy when he should have focused on getting people back to work instead. Look at it this way: Obama was a freshman Senator who was elected president and then tried to shake things up by passing ACA. Not only did he borrow a bill that was a stepdown from Romneycare, but he made it his first agenda right out of the gate without fine tuning. Of course his own base wouldn't go for it.

Hilary definitely won't stand for that shit, however. She'll slap bitches around to get things passed, both Dems and GOP.

Senate should also fall back into Dem hands as well, regardless of who's elected.

[Serra]

Rand won't be the one upsetting Bush. He has too many (social) policies the conservative base won't embrace. Honestly, the weak field from the Democrats is probably Hillary's biggest advantage. The American primary structure alienates moderates and independents who then have to be won back during the real election. Presumably, Hillary is not going to have to deal with that to the extent that the Republican nominee will.

[Sho]

Rand won't be the one upsetting Bush. He has too many (social) policies the conservative base won't embrace. Honestly, the weak field from the Democrats is probably Hillary's biggest advantage. The American primary structure alienates moderates and independents who then have to be won back during the real election. Presumably, Hillary is not going to have to deal with that to the extent that the Republican nominee will.

Yeah, which is actually sad and shows that he'll he'll pussy out more often than not. Rand Paul isn't a perfect man, but he's actually closest to the center than any of the other nominations, and that's exactly what the nation needs right now; someone who isn't hyper conservative, but just enough that they can work to government overreach. He would also move his policies away from religious overtures as well as possibly continue some of Obama's foreign policies.

Speaking of Hilary Clinton, I think of her as much as I think about Al Gore, I don't trust them at all, but I trust the GOP they are running against even less.

[Abandon]

shocked nobody made a comment about ugly broads hating on other ugly broads just because

[notorious bum]

How'd we get to this point? We got 8 more years of Bush policies, a Clinton v Bush Sequel. Many laughed at this man in the '08 Primaries:



Remember the cackle...

[Byrthnoth]

GoP has to play to the hard right for their primary then swing centrist for the election. Democrats just have to show up, breathe in and out, and look sane. I mean, Obama has been on the right side of moderate for essentially his entire presidency. I'd much rather have had a real liberal president, but I voted for him in 2012 even though his cards were already on the table because the opposition is basically composed of psychos.

One of my favorite memories from my time in Germany was talking to a German PhD candidate who came up to me and said something along the lines of, "I was reading on a news site on the internet that..." (lowers her voice) "some of your politicians do not understand the theory of evolution." This was an excellent exchange for several reasons:
1) She thought it was an embarrassing enough accusation that she lowered her voice.
2) She gave them the benefit of the doubt. Not that they willfully chose not to "believe in evolution," but that they just failed to understand it. Reality is so much more cruel.
3) After I explained to her how the Republican party is basically dominated by right wing fundamentalist Christian blowhards due to voter ennui and our primary structure, and how that effectively paralyzes our political process, she said something incredibly German to me like, "Oh yes, that does not seem optimal. We have many parties here, so we do not have this issue so much."