2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[notorious bum]

I would have accepted "dope".

No. You're dead to me now.

I've never even seen all of Half Baked. I'm disappointed with myself, too, actually.

[Gredival]

Bernie has a 60% name ID with black vote, but an overwhelmingly favorable view for those who are familiar with him. BLM plays a very insignificant role in this race, despite the vocal minority on Twitter. Last I checked, Bernie is nearly caught up to Hilary on the Latino vote, she continues to plummet and it will only get worse.

Here's a good article on why http://www.latinorebels.com/2015/10/...ain-insulting/

http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-...ows-1445335201

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0SD2EJ20151020

Big plummet.

[notorious bum]

I believe I was referencing the Latino vote, I don't see that there, and WSJ can eat twelve cocks.

I also forgot to express my content in my previous posts for land-line based polling data, where the obvious bias is obvious.

[Fiye]

Jim Webb is dropping out today.

http://gawker.com/report-jim-webb-dr...ace-1737555126

And to think I've only gotten to know the guy for a week.

[archibaldcrane]

Bernie fans were fun until they turned into media conspiracy theorists / poll expert unskewers

[Serra]

And yet Chafee and O'Malley are staying in? >.>

[Gredival]

Polling firms actively compensate for land line only by oversampling demographics which are less represented in land line calls.

And I was referencing the entire Democratic primary electorate, including Latino voters. Not that Bernie is doing much better with the Latino vote. The Telemundo poll last month was 23 points in favor of Clinton for Latino, and she was over the important 50% mark.

[Serra]

Polling firms actively compensate for land line only by oversampling demographics which are less represented in land line calls.

By offending old ladies and saying they don't want their opinions.

[notorious bum]

Bernie fans were fun until they turned into media conspiracy theorists / poll expert unskewers

I'm not the one relying on national polls to tell the story of how the primaries are shaping up and posting shit polls post-debate, which have been put on blast more than I can even bear to read anymore.

Also, I'm not a Bernie fan, Archie. I just feel the Bern and you don't. I checked with my doctor, he says it's perfectly normal, so you shouldn't worry about me.

[Gredival]

I'm not the one relying on national polls to tell the story of how the primaries are shaping up and posting shit polls post-debate, which have been put on blast more than I can even bear to read anymore.

Also, I'm not a Bernie fan, Archie. I just feel the Bern and you don't. I checked with my doctor, he says it's perfectly normal, so you shouldn't worry about me.

You rely on polling numbers to show how Bernie is gaining momentum, but when you are shown contrary data you try to discredit the polling even though polling firms actively compensate for the flaws you show.

But here's a primary poll from NH showing Clinton has moved back into the lead with 41%, followed by Bernie at 33%. Clinton’s support has jumped six points while Sanders has dropped nine point over the last month for a 15 point net difference. Biden takes 11%.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...ll-up-big.html

But the fact you want to go state specific on polling is hilarious because Bernie has no chance in a vast majority of states, and I went through a whole general election mock up where I showed that Bernie automatically loses enough states to automatically lose in the electoral college

[Cantih]

Unless he gets pissed enough to rage stay in, I think Webb is gonna be the first to go.

:kickface:

[notorious bum]

I saw that poll as well, here's another http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opi...bate_boost_for

At least we're focusing on important data for the primaries and not wasting time on national telephone calls to old ladies. The reason why I'm making a big deal about this is because I already see enough trimming of important data that gives people an accurate look at how much momentum Bernie has, hence why discussion on favorability numbers and name ID is intentionally left out of most article's references.

[tyven]

Paul Ryan is currently laying down the circumstances for which he would run for speaker. shockingly enough it all hinges on HFC pledging their support to his "vision" and beyond that whether or not he believes he can actually unite the GOP. Some say the endorsement from Reid today was a kiss of death.

[archibaldcrane]

I like the idea that the Democrats are buddying up with any viable speaker candidate to torpedo their conservative cred and keep the Republicans in disarray.

[Waraji]

I like the idea that the Democrats are buddying up with any viable speaker candidate to torpedo their conservative cred and keep the Republicans in disarray.

This is exactly what I thought when I saw Reid giving a nod to Ryan. Fucking Trolling 101.

[Quicklet]

I can't see the HFC signing up to support Ryan when he wants to take away their ability to vacate the speakership. That's their best leverage and giving it away would make it a lot easier to ignore them.

Still waiting to hear more about Boehner's plan for the debt ceiling. Republicans are floating some absolutely bonkers ideas like wanting $4T in spending cuts over 10 years to do a 2 year debt ceiling raise, or prioritizing payments in the event of a default so that the Treasury can pay interest on bonds but won't send out Social Security checks / veterans' benefits.

I will be shocked if this whole thing doesn't get extremely messy in the next week.

[Xno Kappa]

This is exactly what I thought when I saw Reid giving a nod to Ryan. Fucking Trolling 101.

A republican on CNN this morning accused the white house of doing exactly this with Ryan lol.

[Xno Kappa]

Biden making it official he's not running.

[Tyrath]

Biden making it official he's not running.

Thank god.

[Waraji]

Time to Divy up those poll %'s to the other candidates.