2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Sho]

Generally mayad. Having solidarity behind Clinton is a good choice, but one that will leave a very sour taste in many mouths, including mine.

Biden not running, Kasich not reaching -- for stability right now, all we have to rely on is Clinton, lol.

The irony in his speech is that he sounded waaaaay more Presidential than anyone else in the running right now.

[Waraji]

The irony in his speech is that he sounded waaaaay more Presidential than anyone else in the running right now.

Well, he has had a lot of time to practice...

[Xajii]

Time to Divy up those poll %'s to the other candidates.

you can pretty much tack that number on to hilary

[Sho]

Well, he has had a lot of time to practice...

Indeed. I'm just salty as shit right now.

[archibaldcrane]

Fuck yes. Good guy Biden.

[Fiye]

I'm just glad people can stop holding over for a no show. Democratic ticket just got shrunk down to 1 super candidate (Clinton), 1 somewhat viable (Bernie), 1 on the radar (O'Malley), and 1 pulling so low he's an asterisk by CNN standards (Chafee).

I would really prefer a Sanders nomination over a Clinton. Really wish the Republicans could offer a decent candidate at this point.

[Sho]

The Donald Trump response:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...83793354182657

[Marootsoobutsu]

you can pretty much tack that number on to hilary

And with that, kiss Sanders nomination goodbye.

[Serra]

I think you could kiss Sanders' nomination away when he announced.. Maybe the day the Gallup poll came out saying 50% of Americans wouldn't vote for a socialist.

[Gredival]

Trump is the nominee of choice for 31 percent of Republican primary voters calling themselves moderate versus 20 percent of those who call themselves very conservative. Ben Carson is the choice of 14 percent voters who identify themselves as moderates but 28 percent of those who call themselves very conservative.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wi...rticle/2574554

When you think about it, it makes sense. Trump basically has sway over the section of the GOP that were Democrats right up to when LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act in 1964. That section of the party is less about the unmitigated capitalism that the establishment peddles and the anti-government that the tea party is about.

[Byrthnoth]

Biden VP 8 more years 8 more years!

[notorious bum]

Who knows what type of impact Biden would have had on the split. Hillary, however, is in the unique position, unlike Bernie and Biden, of being totally unable to expand the map or win independents.

[Churchill]

People like my parents who are obummer conservatives would rather vote for Sanders than any of the republicans or Hillary because they aren't dumb enough to think Hillary is Bill or that Hillary =/= obummer or bush.

Edit: They are like 55 and make like 200k a year

[archibaldcrane]

Who knows what type of impact Biden would have had on the split. Hillary, however, is in the unique position, unlike Bernie and Biden, of being totally unable to expand the map or win independents.

I'm being a masochist asking this, but what states do you think Bernie or Biden could win that Hillary can't?

[zoobernut]

I'm being a masochist asking this, but what states do you think Bernie or Biden could win that Hillary can't?

I am a Bernie supporter but looking at it realistically I think Bernie could win the popular vote but I don't think he could pull in any states that Hillary couldn't. I think the issue is that Bernie has incredible support in the form of scattered pockets.

[Cantih]

If you mean in the general election, a number of polls have shown that in a Hilary vs. GOP and Sanders vs. GOP situations, Sanders tends to win with a wider margin than Hilary.

[notorious bum]

If you mean in the general election, a number of polls have shown that in a Hilary vs. GOP and Sanders vs. GOP situations, Sanders tends to win with a wider margin than Hilary.

Exactly. The funny thing is, Sanders and Carson are running the strongest grassroots campaigns on the ground, as opposed to the media darling front-runners.

[6souls]

Rubio made a statement saying that all government employees that don't do their job should be fired. This excludes him because he's running for president despite Paul, Sanders, Cruz, and Graham havING a higher voting rating than him since starting their own bids.

[Gredival]

Exactly. The funny thing is, Sanders and Carson are running the strongest grassroots campaigns on the ground, as opposed to the media darling front-runners.

And the grassroots don't matter. The popular vote doesn't matter. Bernie's pockets of enthusiastic support don't help when the very positions that make him popular make independents and moderates in swing states nervous.

Hillary is electable precisely for the reason you don't like her she is more moderate (i.e. she isn't an open and avowed socialist). And that's what matters when the swing states are the only ones in play. Hillary isn't going to lose any state that voted for Obama in a greater than 5% margin, and she can hold enough of the swings. Bernie will hemorrhage electoral college votes because deep blue ideology doesn't play well in reddish purple states.

[zoobernut]

If you mean in the general election, a number of polls have shown that in a Hilary vs. GOP and Sanders vs. GOP situations, Sanders tends to win with a wider margin than Hilary.

Yes that is exactly what I mean. Sanders would win the popular vote and gets higher voting numbers vs Hillary easily but the problem is that his support is spread thin over the country. I don't think he would win any states that she could not which is what really counts.