2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Sho]

Not really, I just do all of this reading mostly out of boredom lol The left is filled with neoliberal fuckwads who concern-troll everyone to get re-elected, just like any great politician.

That is, those who self-proclaim to be part of the "left". I happen to share a lot of ideals with progressives, of course.

You'd be surprised, however. The manner in which you post by extension serves as a good lobbyist tactic. Just saying from experience for lobbying for both sides in the past. The Internet is still pretty untapped outside of mailing lists.

It can be fun! If nothing else, you get to travel and hob nob with some politicals. Definitely will have to swallow your pride if you ideals and your respective Congressman/Senators clash.

[Churchill]

I also don't see the moderates going for Hillary. Any intelligent person can separate her from her husband.

Even in this thread it's been stated, but everyone's issue with Hillary is they never know what she's really about. You can take an hour to peruse her college thesis and nip that lack of knowledge in the bud.

Edit: Her history with Alinsky might actually be a good way for Bernie to be a socialist but not be as bad as Hillary and crucify her. I'm always surprised it never comes up as a big talking point.

[Waraji]

Well, you at least know she's in bed with Wall Street. So you can pretty much blanket her for any position that benefits them.

Glass Steagall, naah. Too Big To Fail Banks, naah.

[Serra]

I also don't see the moderates going for Hillary. Any intelligent person can separate her from her husband.

Even in this thread it's been stated, but everyone's issue with Hillary is they never know what she's really about. You can take an hour to peruse her college thesis and nip that lack of knowledge in the bud.

Edit: Her history with Alinsky might actually be a good way for Bernie to be a socialist but not be as bad as Hillary and crucify her. I'm always surprised it never comes up as a big talking point.

First, yeah, since the average person is going to take an hour to read up on politics. Second, when did she graduate college again?

[notorious bum]

Well, you at least know she's in bed with Wall Street. So you can pretty much blanket her for any position that benefits them.

Glass Steagall, naah. Too Big To Fail Banks, naah.

This is the Clinton standard, son:

Clinton Foundation Donors Got Weapons Deals From Hillary's State Dept
http://www.ibtimes.com/clinton-found...Ms7GWM.twitter

[Tyche]

You can think that moderates don't go for Hillary, but polling suggests otherwise.

Also, after some casual reading, 95% of people from New Hampshire who voted in the 2008 primary were white liberals. Thats where Sanders numbers poll very well. 93% of Iowa primary voters were white liberals. However, and this is a huge fucking however, that number on a national level falls to just about 30%. And still, sanders is losing New Hampshire according to the latest polls.

[Tyche]

So theoretically, as Kuno said, Sanders could win Iowa and New Hampshire (where his name recognition is about 80% higher than it is on a national level with 90%+ white liberal primary voters) and still lose every other state because he doesn't have those advantages. But the fact those states are close or he's losing should speak volumes as to his chances on the national level.

[Waraji]

Unless he somehow manages to develop cloning technology and going door to door in all the southern states, simultaneously educating the less informed.

[Gredival]

“With Mr. Biden out, Mrs. Clinton is positioned to consolidate a key combination of elite support and moderate voters. The evidence of Mrs. Clinton’s gains could start to trickle in almost immediately, since she was the second choice of nearly all of Mr. Biden’s voters in public opinion polls over the last month.”

“A united coalition of moderate, nonwhite and older voters represents a clear majority of the Democratic primary electorate. Mrs. Clinton took a commanding lead of 57 percent to 31 percent over Mr. Sanders in an average of seven September surveys that removed Mr. Biden from the equation.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/22/up...T.nav=top-news

[Tyche]

I'm curious, what do you guys actually think sanders chances are? Percentage wise. And what percent number do you think he will hit in the primary?

I think it's about one percent; a one percent chance Hilary has an epidural hematoma from a skiing accident or that the sham Benghazi committee or RNC find something so god damned egregious in those emails that she has to pull out.

[Serra]

I'm really excited for tomorrow. Was thinking of taking off to watch the hearings, but decided that was a bit extreme.. since I have a door.

[Kanriel]

I think writing Sanders off so far is certainly a bit too extreme. Sanders is actually faring better than Obama vs Hillary at this point in the election cycle. And they had more debates under their belt at this point and Obama started at a higher recognition point. I'm not saying Sanders is going to win, it's still nothing close to a sure thing, but the opportunity is still very much there.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ation-191.html

Obama didn't even start polling near Hillary until right when the primaries began. He was at half her numbers for months and months before then.

[Tyche]

I think writing Sanders off so far is certainly a bit too extreme. Sanders is actually faring better than Obama vs Hillary at this point in the election cycle. And they had more debates under their belt at this point and Obama started at a higher recognition point. I'm not saying Sanders is going to win, it's still nothing close to a sure thing, but the opportunity is still very much there.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ation-191.html

Obama didn't even start polling near Hillary until right when the primaries began. He was at half her numbers for months and months before then.

And Hillary didn't have over 100 super delegates then. And Obama polled better than 10% in the south. And Obama had more then 5% of the black vote. And Obama wasn't a self proclaimed socialist that the base is hesitant to rally around.

It's not the same. It's not close.

[Kanriel]

And Sanders is also getting much bigger crowds than Obama. So yes, it's not the same, but it's not all against Sanders.

[Waraji]

Sanders = White, Obama = Black. Sanders isn't even near guaranteed 50% of the black vote, as Obama, well, yeah. Love me some Sanders, but its simple logic. Unless he gets out there and start doing hard ground game in the south, and general black/latino communities, he's not going to get nominated. No Chance.

[Tyche]

And Sanders is also getting much bigger crowds than Obama. So yes, it's not the same, but it's not all against Sanders.

The man is super well liked among young, white liberals, which there's a lot of. Ultimately, the number of people he puts in a stadium doesn't mean a whole lot.

[Cantih]

People forget national polls don't mean much at this time. You gotta look at individual states.

To be fair, serious and widespread state by state polling, to the degree you can start aggregating data, hasn't happened yet.
The last map I saw had many states with old or no data.

[Marootsoobutsu]

I wish I had more popcorn. This thread is entertaining as heck.

[Sho]

I'd say Sander's chances of winning the nomination is like... 15%.

The man simply doesn't have the reach to take the nomination from Hilary, or even Biden if he was still in. If you look at it from his rhetoric, while he's speeches are pretty god damn awesome, there's absolutely no way a lot of what he says will even get through Congress at all, if he was elected POTUS. It's mostly ideology on a grand stage. As painful as it is to quote Webb: "the revolution is not coming any time soon." In this, Sander's is selling something similar to what Trump is selling, empty promises. Clinton by comparison would obviously keep a lot of things status quo, but would have a lot more leverage to have compromises as well. However this isn't so much a problem when you look at it -- the Clinton camp is forced to look at exactly why Sanders is pulling in these mega crowds while she's is still just a step above townhall meetings.

[Andalusian girls]

after the Biden announcement and her debate performance the only way Hillary loses is if she gets indicted or dies