2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Gredival]

Why are we discussing this still. I already mathed out why Bernie 100% loses the Electoral College on the swing states alone forty pages ago.

Here's the kingmaker (swing state) group: CO (9), FL (29), IA (6), NV (6), NH (4), NC (15), OH (18), VA (13), WI (10)

To reach 270, Bernie can only lose a maximum of 33 EV's from this group, assuming that he carries every other state that Obama won in '12 (with the caveat that bringing FL or NC to his side gives him breathing room).

Based on five states, we can reliably determine he would lose the general. He'll lose 41 EV's automatically compared to Obama - OH, VA, WI - and he has no chance of getting FL or NC to flip to save himself.

VA - This is easy pickings for the GOP. Obama carried only by the slimmest of margins (.3%) so there is absolutely no margin for error in losing any moderates here. Obama lost a substantial amount of ground here between 08 and 12, which indicates that his "liberal" first term was too far left for VA. Hell, Mark Warner almost lost his midterm here.

NC - NC is basically a slightly redder version of VA. It went for Romney by 3% points after Obama barely carried it in 08. If Obama lost ground for being too liberal here, Bernie has no chance.

FL - The Northern half of FL is basically deep South. Additionally all the retirees in the South tend to skew to the right as well as the Cuban immigrants. The Democrats have the non-Cuban minorities and other urban city population. This dynamic ultimately favors the GOP. Romney carried this by 1.5% after Obama carried in 08 by 3%. They also just sent Skeletor back to the Governor's mansion when he was challenged by Charlie Crist, who's significantly more moderate than Obama (being a Republican originally after all). I don't see Bernie keeping all of Obama's voters, much less winning over people scared of a radical GOP candidate at a pace that outstrips the voters he would lose by being a "radical" socialist.

WI - They let Walker stay in the Governor's mansion despite his primary accomplishment being abolishing organized labor. If the electorate is willing to let Walker do that, I can't imagine that there's enough people to get energized by a $15 minimum wage to keep this in Bernie's column.

OH - Fringe of the Bible belt. The moderates here will not be comfortable with the "radicalism" of Bernie's socialism. On top of that, a GOP candidate that throws red meat to the conservatives here can likely swing the state purely by playing a better ground game than Romney.

For what it's worth I think Bernie has a decent shot at the rest of those swing states, but the right-leaning moderates in these five states are what matter. But Bernie might lose PA too. It's a slightly more worker oriented Ohio.

[BaneTheBrawler]

What is the purpose of the electoral college anymore? Like, I know it was intended to insulate the presidential election from the grubby commoners, but it seems like it just ended up skewing the entire election process in some really fucked up ways.

[Quicklet]

You're discounting the appeal Sanders would have to both the middle-class blue-collar vote and to older voters. Scott Walker's favorability rating in Wisconsin is at a low. Virginia has been trending blue and elected a Democratic governor in 2013. It's not a given that any of those five states except maybe NC go red with Sanders running.

[Tyrath]

Scott Walker isn't running anymore..

[Serra]

What is the purpose of the electoral college anymore? Like, I know it was intended to insulate the presidential election from the grubby commoners, but it seems like it just ended up skewing the entire election process in some really fucked up ways.

Like you said, it was envisioned as a way to insulate the electoral process from the "stupidity of the masses," but given how the process has developed (primarily the two party system), it really is just an artifact of an earlier point in the US' history. You can certainly argue that the electorate is still not very well informed, but the reality is that faithless electors are also incredibly rare (and have never played a roll in deciding an election).

If people wanted to keep it but make it more accurate, a system like Maine and Nebraska (where seats are decided by district and the senate seats go to the overall winner in the state, if I'm not mistaken) would be better, but it's up to the states to decide that, and states have no incentive to push for a change -- states which already go either Democrat/Republican wouldn't want to cut up their shares, and battleground states would essentially give up their battleground status with such a change.

[Ksandra]

What is the purpose of the electoral college anymore? Like, I know it was intended to insulate the presidential election from the grubby commoners, but it seems like it just ended up skewing the entire election process in some really fucked up ways.

Really zero point anymore with mass media now a thing. But good luck having anyone ever 'waste time' to pass legislation to remove it.

[Quicklet]

Scott Walker isn't running anymore..

Scott Walker is the governor of Wisconsin...

[Tyrath]

Scott Walker is the governor of Wisconsin...

That doesn't say anything for why the people of Wisconson would flock to Sanders rather than going for another GOP nominee.

[Quicklet]

Unpopular sitting governor at the very least mitigates the potential boost of Walker doing some campaign stops with the GOP nominee in his state. I'm just saying it's not a given that Sanders would lose Wisconsin when many of his positions would be extremely well received in that state.

[Kanriel]

Bernie is getting doubled up by Hilldog. Nothing has changed here - barring an actual crippling scandal or a serious health crisis, Hilldog the Inevitable is going to cruise to the nomination effortlessly.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ation-191.html

The polls are pretty much exactly on par with Obama vs Hillary for 2008. Obama was half Hillary until primaries began.

[Serra]

And, most accurately at this point..

[archibaldcrane]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ation-191.html

The polls are pretty much exactly on par with Obama vs Hillary for 2008. Obama was half Hillary until primaries began.

I feel sad for people clinging to this.

Bernie is not Obama. Stop embarrassing yourself.

[Ragnus]

Yeah, I think Bernie is done at this point. Hillary cleared out during the Benghazi hearings and only something horrible is going to stop her momentum when it comes to the popular vote and delegates.

[Palin]

FL - The Northern half of FL is basically deep South. Additionally all the retirees in the South tend to skew to the right as well as the Cuban immigrants. The Democrats have the non-Cuban minorities and other urban city population. This dynamic ultimately favors the GOP. Romney carried this by 1.5% after Obama carried in 08 by 3%. They also just sent Skeletor back to the Governor's mansion when he was challenged by Charlie Crist, who's significantly more moderate than Obama (being a Republican originally after all). I don't see Bernie keeping all of Obama's voters, much less winning over people scared of a radical GOP candidate at a pace that outstrips the voters he would lose by being a "radical" socialist.

Just nitpicking here, but FL went to Obama in 2012.

[Andalusian girls]

last two Republican polls show Carson up by double digits in Iowa. guess the evangelicals have rallied around their banner, for the nonce

[notorious bum]

I'm glad we have a legion of Nate Silver clones here to speak in such confident swagger. I get a little mahogany each time I click the thread.

[Andalusian girls]

did the mean statistics man deflate your fantasy :[

[6souls]

Ben Carson is on that crackhead level on that "what the fuck did you just say" chart.

[kuronosan]

As a budding doctor, Ben Carson embarrasses this field with each passing pile of shit that escapes his mouth.

[Xajii]

Carson was a local hero around here growing up - hell, I saw a play about him. He wasn't in politics then.

Rarely has such a genius also been such a dumbass.