2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[6souls]

If anyone is not catching the Guatemala joke, this week they elected a comedian as their new president.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34632485

[Serra]

For the first time in months, a national poll shows Donald Trump is not leading the Republican 2016 primary race, and instead has Ben Carson in first place.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/27/politi...oll/index.html

[thetruepandagod]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/27/politi...oll/index.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tion-3823.html

[Waraji]

If anyone is not catching the Guatemala joke, this week they elected a comedian as their new president.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34632485

I could be mistaken, but it was posted on the last page, therefore I'm sure plenty got the joke.

Consolation prize though:

This ain't Guatemala, motherfucker.

[Pirian]

So has 538 reassessed their 2% chance for Trump taking the nomination? lol

[archibaldcrane]

Mother of god

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/322...d1beab9bfb.pdf

In the first Monmouth University Poll of likely Iowa Democratic
caucusgoers in the 2016 cycle, Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 41 point lead over Bernie Sanders.
This is the first poll conducted after Clinton’s appearance before the Benghazi Committee and Joe
Biden’s announcement that he would not mount a presidential campaign.
Clinton currently garners the support of 65% of likely Democratic caucusgoers to 24% for Bernie
Sanders. Martin O’Malley clocks in at 5% and Larry Lessig has 1% of the vote. Clinton enjoys a large
lead over Sanders among both male (55% to 33%) and female (73% to 16%) voters. She also has an edge
across the ideological spectrum, leading among voters who are very liberal (57% to 34%), somewhat
liberal (68% to 22%), and moderate (69% to 19%).

[Andalusian girls]

but in 2008 she lost to Barack Obama

[archibaldcrane]

The Loras College poll in Iowa shows her up 38 points too. Hilldog the Inevitable is back on, folks, I repeat, Hilldog the Inevitable is a go.

[Gredival]

Clearly the polling methodology was flawed since it did not adequately correct the numbers for the "Bernie fills up stadiums" factor which indicates Bernie can and will win.

[Roranora]

She still might die just in time.

[BerenTebogo]

Wake up sheeple!

[archibaldcrane]

Bernie had better step up his New Hampshire game or he's going to win Vermont and nothing else.

[Not Kuno]

Mother of god

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/322...d1beab9bfb.pdf

Their methodology was heavy on landlines and only had 7% 18-35. I understand normally for primaries we have low youth turnout (and low turnout in general), but 76% polled were 50 and older. Do people really think youth vote is going to go that badly this time around? lol

[Tyche]

Their methodology was heavy on landlines and only had 7% 18-35. I understand normally for primaries we have low youth turnout (and low turnout in general), but 76% polled were 50 and older. Do people really think youth vote is going to go that badly this time around? lol

For a primary? Yes.

[Tyche]

Again, the poll wasn't random, it was "likely voters", hence the age gap.

[Tyche]

I'm sorry, in 2008, 14% of primary voters were ages 18-35 (in all states, median). That number was 22% in Iowa. Give Bernie a benefit of the doubt and say he gets 20% because I'm not convinced he gets out more youth than Obama. That's still a massive gap to close. And superdelegates.

Reality is going to have to set in eventually for you guys.

[SephYuyX]

If Hilary ends up as the dem nom, I will vote Trump just to see the world burn.

[archibaldcrane]

If Hilary ends up as the dem nom, I will vote Trump just to see the world burn.

A write-in candidate? Weird.

[Not Kuno]

If Hilary ends up as the dem nom, I will vote Trump just to see the world burn.

Same.

[notorious bum]

The Irony is that I'm watching Chris Hayes with upcoming segments on how both Trump and Clinton camps have problems with recent poll numbers? lol