2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[archibaldcrane]

Too early for the bad press to hurt her IMO.

Americans are fickle with short memory spans.

I agree, unless they have a "scandal" of this magnitude to roll out every 6 weeks or so for the next 18 months.

[Xantavia]

Too early for the bad press to hurt her IMO.

Americans are fickle with short memory spans.

Don't worry, they'll keep harping on it up until the election, along with Benghazi and all the other stuff they've been doing for the last 2 years. Personally, I tune it all out now, since it just screams "boy who cried wolf" to me. Any legitimate issue will get lost amidst all of the other "scandals".

[pohibaba]

I want to make the Republican Primary more interesting. I'll put $100 on either Scott Walker or Marco Rubio to take the nomination against the field. Anyone interested?

[Sho]

I want to make the Republican Primary more interesting. I'll put $100 on either Scott Walker or Marco Rubio to take the nomination against the field. Anyone interested?

I might take you on Scott Walker, but free money from you if you think Marco Rubio's crazy ass takes it.

[Waraji]

Marco Rubio's too Hispanic for the primarily Republican White Base. Not gonna happen. Jeb Bush is probably the closest thing.

[archibaldcrane]

I might take you on Scott Walker, but free money from you if you think Marco Rubio's crazy ass takes it.

I think he's taking Walker+Rubio, you get everyone else.

[pohibaba]

Archie's right. I get both, you (or anyone) gets every other eligible person in the world, including the front runner.

[archibaldcrane]

Rubio is the front-runner now, haven't you heard?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/m...polling-surge/

Marco Rubio is surging!
For the first time since the 2014 midterm elections, Rubio is leading the 2016 GOP field, according to polls by Fox News and Quinnipiac University.

[Waraji]

Stopped reading your quote at "Fo..." let alone actually not clicking on the link. Good one.

[archibaldcrane]

wut

[Cantih]

Waraji, you do know that fivethirtyeight is Nate Silver's stats network, right?
Nate Silver, the stats man that's been the go to place to watch the past two presidential elections.

[Serra]

I've been using http://www.270towin.com/whats_new/ to collect weekly data.

[notorious bum]

Nate doesn't know shit about politics, but I enjoy his statistical masturbation.

Related: Billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson's Israeli paper is obsessed with Marco Rubio http://bit.ly/1DEhYbN

[Serra]

I conversely hate his stat side.. He doesn't share his data or talk about the models, so you have no idea how he's manipulating it to get his results.

[Tyche]

Nate doesn't know shit about politics, but I enjoy his statistical masturbation.

Related: Billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson's Israeli paper is obsessed with Marco Rubio http://bit.ly/1DEhYbN

People who know a lot about politics have been pretty damn poor prognosticators. Confirmation bias.

[notorious bum]

I conversely hate his stat side.. He doesn't share his data or talk about the models, so you have no idea how he's manipulating it to get his results.

Very true, the majority of his reports I come across are sports related anyways.

[Andalusian girls]

of more import than the means of his results are their unparallelled accuracy and getting mad a pollster for not having a better grasp of politics is like throwing a fit because Michael Jordan couldn't hit a baseball

[notorious bum]

It's a nice distraction, I suppose, but I'd much rather occupy my time with following the actual issues and reward real journalism. The article I posted was probably just as useless, since Adelson is a joke, but still funny shit to read. We know Walker was the 'pick' a few days ago, but that boy ain't right. Crunching polling data in this situation right now is, again, statistical masturbation. Who cares how these guys poll right now, they're all tainted products, their voting base will make their informed decisions based on what Kock and company jizzes all over the airwaves (sorry, couldn't resist).

[archibaldcrane]

You should read the article. He makes the point that the horse race polls are nearly meaningless, but the favorable/unfavorable split matters much more for candidate viability.

[Serra]

Horse race polls don't matter? Are you trying to tell me Michelle Bachman wasn't the Republican nominee in 2012!?