2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Kanriel]

Kasich is the Huntsman of this cycle. Doesn't matter what truthbombs he drops, no one is going to care because primary voters are crazy.

The GOP is reaching the point of no return where the crazies that control the primary are sending unelectables up to the general election. They already threw a bunch of 2012 Senate races that way, but now it's becoming more than a local problem.

The winning strategy for Dems is to not do that.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-s...d=sm_fb_maddow

All the more reason Bernie has plenty of a chance in the general. He'll sway moderates a lot better than at least half the Republican field.

Do we have any decent clips of the debate yet? I didn't care to watch it.

[BerenTebogo]

Audible sigh

[Gredival]

All the more reason Bernie has plenty of a chance in the general. He'll sway moderates a lot better than at least half the Republican field.

Or we can be stupid and send Bernie up against Rubio and lose, because as I said "The winning strategy for Dems is to not do that."

[Quicklet]

Rubio is the strongest candidate against Hillary and could plausibly win based on arguments that wouldn't apply to Bernie.

Look, we get it, Hillary is the "safe bet", but a Hillary presidency is not going to start fixing the systemic problems of government, and she's as much in danger of being the Al Gore of 2016 as Bernie would be susceptible to attacks about his policy stances. She is a great politician but she is not what the average American wants out of government right now. She's part of the same elite political class that has doomed Jeb and a lot of other candidates who would be viable in "normal" election cycles.

I worry that if Hillary wins the nomination, the campaign pitch is going to be "Obama was great, but let's make it even better" when the reality is that the Obama presidency has not been all that great on most issues other than social issues and health care, and on health care they made the mistake of compromising on single payer and creating a half-solution that's going to need to be revisited down the line.

There are no indications that the economy is going to be any better this time next year, and Bernie is much more insulated from the general dissatisfaction that comes with economic malaise because his entire argument is the need to reform systemic flaws that allow the wealthy to benefit from the economic recovery much more than the average middle-class worker. Hillary's argument so far has been "we'll make some tweaks" which won't fly with the electorate if people are still having trouble finding good jobs.

Also let's not buy the bullshit she was peddling on Colbert where she said she wouldn't bail the banks out a second time if we were on the verge of another global financial disaster. Of course she would bail the banks out -- bailing the banks out was not the problem when the alternative was a global financial depression. The problem was not making enough regulatory adjustments and in particular not pursuing criminal prosecutions of people who were responsible for peddling risky loans as safe investments.

I just think people are getting way ahead of themselves in thinking that just because she had a good week that she's now this unstoppable force that nobody's going to be able to contend with. Someone mentioned it earlier, but really if Bernie were 20 years younger and a little bit more charismatic I don't think it would even be close even though all the policy differences would be the same.

[Kanriel]

Really the issue is people are so damned cynical about the system they're now reinforcing the status quo within the system as they think real change isn't even an option on the table.

Supreme Court justices aren't going to mean shit if we have another 8 years of not doing shit about climate change or reigning in wealth inequality.

[Gredival]

The pro-Hillary people here aren't about momentum, they're about beating the elephants with an imperfect candidate instead of losing with a better one. Because the theoretical, and I stress theoretical given that a Democratic Presidency would still be encumbered by the Senate and the House, benefits of a Sanders presidency are irrelevant if it means we end up blowing the election because he scares the shit out of moderates in FL, VA, OH, WI, and NC who don't think "socialist" or "true liberal" are plus traits

[Gredival]

Really the issue is people are so damned cynical about the system they're now reinforcing the status quo within the system as they think real change isn't even an option on the table.

It's not about the system, though that is a problem, it's about the electorate. We aren't in Europe. Half of the country still thinks socialism is a dirty word. There is a reason why what counts as crazy liberal Obama policies here would be center right everywhere else.

Yes those voters are rapidly aging, but right now they are still a factor. Especially with the way our system fundamentally benefits these loosely populated wide geographic swaths of flyover country.

[Kanriel]

It's not about the system, though that is a problem, it's about the electorate. We aren't in Europe. Half of the country still thinks socialism is a dirty word. There is a reason why what counts as crazy liberal Obama policies here would be center right everywhere else.

So how do we get anything fixed? Just keep hoping to ignore anything socialist and hope that a few Hillary justices can...what? What is a Hillary presidency going to achieve for us? What changes are we going to get?

And what if we have 8 more years of shit and the electorate thinks 16 years and the Democrats didn't fix anything so we go solid Republican later on, all because we're afraid of the word socialist and working on redefining that word so a non-bought politician can get elected?

At some point we need to put in the work to enact real change. If not now, with a candidate with 30+ years of political experience on consistency making a run, then when? When is the change going to come to actually fix the massive issues facing us as a nation?

We're at critical mass for our wealth inequality. This is going to destabilize us.
We're at critical mass for climate change. This is going to destabilize us.
We're at critical mass for political corruption. This is going to destabilize us.

Hillary isn't going to do shit about any of those three. In fact she's practically on board with 2 of them.

[Kanriel]

http://www.alternet.org/poll-more-de...ism-capitalism

Apparently democrats now prefer socialism to capitalism. Same poll shows independents went from 22 to 18% pro-socialism, but they also went from 52 to 43 pro-capitalism.

I think it's safe to say this conversation is already having an effect. And it's only started.

[Blubbartron]

http://www.alternet.org/poll-more-de...ism-capitalism

Apparently democrats now prefer socialism to capitalism. Same poll shows independents went from 22 to 18% pro-socialism, but they also went from 52 to 43 pro-capitalism.

I think it's safe to say this conversation is already having an effect. And it's only started.

Bingo. Anyone who thinks we can't possibly elect a socialist in 2016 hasn't been paying attention. Bernie has barely even started. We have nearly a year to go for him to educate the populace. Shit, we have MONTHS to go before we even have primary voting. And what campaigning he has been doing has been having a dramatic effect, exactly as noted by Kanriel, and despite the fact that Bernie is effectively ignored and/or derided by the media who are banking on Hillary (in large part because they have her in their pocket). It's amazing how quickly people's minds turn around when they hear a self-proclaimed socialist say things that make a hell of a lot of sense to them. Is it going to sway the deep reds? No, of course not. But it's definitely swaying a lot of Democrats, and an increasing number of independents.

[Serra]

First, some of you still have these misguided notions that electing Sanders will lead to sudden drastic change and that's what the American people want. I've said this multiple times before, but Sanders does not have a legislative fiat to pass anything he wants. Look at the health care plan Obama campaigned on versus what the ACA ended up being. The ACA was the BEST that Obama could get passed. You think Sanders being elected is suddenly going to lead to free tuition or environmentally friendly climate policies? Honestly, I would love to go back and hear what some of you were saying about Obama's plans for health care in 2008.

Hillary can make gradual improvements. Yes, some of these problems need drastic change (like climate change), but the US government is slow moving, and the majority of the voting electorate prefer the status quo to drastic change. I know some of you will never be convinced of this fact, but all the evidence says that the majority of the voting electorate prefers small marginal changes to the status quo, at best. You have to realize, we are not the median voter. An internet forum like BlueGartr is incredibly left leaning. Hell, if we arranged everyone on a uni-dimensional spectrum, I have a feeling the Hilldog supporters would be to the right of center.

Also, a year, that's a bit much. I think Bernie has four months till Hilldog has the nomination wrapped up.

[Kanriel]

First, some of you still have these misguided notions that electing Sanders will lead to sudden drastic change and that's what the American people want. I've said this multiple times before, but Sanders does not have a legislative fiat to pass anything he wants. Look at the health care plan Obama campaigned on versus what the ACA ended up being. The ACA was the BEST that Obama could get passed. You think Sanders being elected is suddenly going to lead to free tuition or environmentally friendly climate policies? Honestly, I would love to go back and hear what some of you were saying about Obama's plans for health care in 2008.

Hillary can make gradual improvements. Yes, some of these problems need drastic change (like climate change), but the US government is slow moving, and the majority of the voting electorate prefer the status quo to drastic change. I know some of you will never be convinced of this fact, but all the evidence says that the majority of the voting electorate prefers small marginal changes to the status quo, at best. You have to realize, we are not the median voter. An internet forum like BlueGartr is incredibly left leaning. Hell, if we arranged everyone on a uni-dimensional spectrum, I have a feeling the Hilldog supporters would be to the right of center.

Also, a year, that's a bit much. I think Bernie has four months till Hilldog has the nomination wrapped up.

Sanders won't shut up about things. Obama makes a few comments here and there, but he's not ripping apart the Republicans for their deadlock. Sanders will spell it out right away. As well, Sanders is strong in his convictions, and will bring about a momentum to change what congress looks like (likely not 2016, but 2018 potentially). Sanders is good at getting things done, as he got more legislation passed than Hillary did while they were in the Senate together (both first terms for them).

If Hillary can make gradual improvements, why can Sanders not? And why am I to believe Hillary even wants to make those gradual improvements? She came out against Keystone XL a couple months ago, it's been a legislative issue for YEARS. And preferring the status quo over drastic change? FDR was drastic change. Reagan was drastic change. We're plenty capable of drastic change in the USA. We just haven't had anyone willing to do it for a long time.

[Serra]

If Hillary can make gradual improvements, why can Sanders not?

Because he's not going to be the nominee..? Did you just enter this thread or something? For months now, a number of us have clearly laid out that Sanders is not a viable candidate to win the nomination, much less a national election.

[Waraji]

Until he does, for unforeseen conditions. Then... lol Not really. <3 Sanders

[Waraji]

WARREN 2021 Bitches!

Edit: Shit Double Post

[Tyrath]

If Sanders can beat Hillary, which is a huuuuuuuge if, then he did something right and would have a chance in the general. So i don't really see Hillary as the safe choice.

[thetruepandagod]

Ya'll goin on bout thangs like trump ain't a lock for president. It has been foretold and meme power cannot be overcome.

[Tyche]

[Waraji]

lmfao the fucking poem at the end.

[Sho]

Paul Ryan just became Speaker.