2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Andalusian girls]

calling Obama center-right globally is absurd unless you consider the globe to consist of Scandinavia

though of course reducing all political activity to a two point system is convenient but inherently silly, Germany has universal healthcare but no gay marriage, France is a union-workers paradise that enacts Islamophobic legislation, etc etc

[Galkaeater]

France is a union-workers paradise that enacts Islamophobic legislation, etc etc

and also arrests people for insulting islam

[Andalusian girls]

yet arrests far more for cozying up with Islam

https://electronicintifada.net/blogs...ronic-comments

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world...this_week.html

insofar as this is germane to the present discussion it illuminates how socialist, statist France has far less tolerance for free speech (from whichever point it stems from) than does the more capitalistic America, further demonstrating the insufficiency of the binary liberal/conservative taxonomy when comparing nation states

[Waraji]

Whatever the Globe thinks about where Obama, Clinton, or fucking Nader is on the Left to Right wing scale means all of Dick since they are not American Citizens voting in our elections.

[Marootsoobutsu]

an especially surprising draw considering most universities are overwhelming staffed by liberal professors and one would assume they would exert greater influence over their charges' political development but that does not appear to be the case until postgraduate study.

So, reasons why I don't find that bit surprising:

Spoiler: show

College grads tend to be in the upper middle class, which tends toward Republican as they get older, for a variety of reasons.

College grads are more likely to come from middle class families, which tend to be Republican more than Democrat; while they might be liberal in college, once they're out of college and family again influences more than professors, they tend to drift away from the college phases and back to Republican.

Post-grad education tends to have so much heavy influence by the professors than under-grad is. You get a lot more one-on-one time with professors by default, where the only undergrads who really seem to care about what their professors believe are those who plan to go post-grad anyway-- they're more likely to be influenced by other students, where the loudest on campus tend to be the liberals, particularly the feminists (at least, that was my experience, though there were plenty of religious booths for Christians and Muslims, as well, at all of the events and in the Quad and such), who dabble in about every progressivist/environmentalist/whateverist movement that catches their fancy. And just like always, where the girls go, the boys will follow, because hey-- boobs. Some guys are genuinely persuaded, some guys go because they already agree, but a lot just go to say the right things (just like in the classroom), get what they want, and then move on. Many others are persuaded for the time they are there-- they aren't there to use people, but then those are the same people who get persuaded by the next crowd they are with. It should be noted that the (mostly hard sciences/economics/mathematics) fields that are dominated (or at least more evenly balanced) with conservatives (though not religious) tend to have post-grads who are also leaning that way.

So yeah-- it doesn't surprise me. Just like Republicans dominate with the strong and high-middle of education, while Democrats dominate with the extremely poorly educated and the extremely well educated, it's the same with economics-- Republicans have the most self-made "small time" millionaires (mostly folks in their 40s+ who have built that up over their working lives), down through the middle class, Democrats have the edge with the most extremely wealthy and the most extremely poor. Democrats have tended to control the extremes, while Republicans have tended to control the middle. But the extremes tend to congregate in cities, the middle classes tend to congregate in the suburban/subrural/rural areas. I mean, I know folks focus on the Koch brothers, but... let's not pretend there aren't people just as wealthy-- wealthier-- throwing huge support behind the Democrats, in both time and money.

[Galkaeater]

yet arrests far more for cozying up with Islam

You counting?

[dasva]

yet arrests far more for cozying up with Islam

and also arrests people for insulting islam

This is extremely confusing. I don't know if I'm supposed to hate Islam or hate those that hate Islam. They really need to figure it out to tell us how to feel

[Galkaeater]

france has yet to mellow out from all its revolutions

[Blubbartron]

This is extremely confusing. I don't know if I'm supposed to hate Islam or hate those that hate Islam. They really need to figure it out to tell us how to feel

Considering the people here aren't giving a very fair explanation of the situation in France, I'm not surprised by your confusion. The "Islamophobic" legislation they're talking about is the ban on face-covering veils in public. It's not just religious veils, it's all face-covering things, such as masks and whatnot. It's a public safety issue, which wasn't really a concern until a massive amount of Muslims emigrated to France, and suddenly a non-insignificant portion of the population was walking around on a daily basis completely unidentifiable. The legislation for locking up people for insulting Islam are actually anti-bigotry laws, which apply to race, sex, sexual preference, religion, etc. It's not so much about insulting Islam in general (because it really is a despicable set of beliefs, with foundations in utter barbarism and lunacy), so much as it is insulting and disparaging against a PERSON who holds said beliefs. One is ok to do, the other is not.

[Not Kuno]

Clinton is back over 50% in the RCP average. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tion-3824.html

A lot of polls either focus on past primary voters, or have age groups screwed towards likely voters in their methodology (like 75%+ polled being 50+, only landlines, etc). If the youth actually goes out and votes, do not expect a Hillary landslide. I think all Burnie supporters know his largest obstacle is beating Hillary.

[Marootsoobutsu]

I think all Burnie supporters know his largest obstacle is beating Hillary.

So all Bernie supporters are delusional youths who think these times are new or somehow shockingly different from the past. Gotchya.

[Tyrath]

So all Bernie supporters are delusional youths who think these times are new or somehow shockingly different from the past. Gotchya.

No, it's just that beating Hillary would be such a huge hurdle that if he can manage that then he can manage more too. He just almost certainly won't manage that, sadly.

[archibaldcrane]

A lot of polls either focus on past primary voters, or have age groups screwed towards likely voters in their methodology (like 75%+ polled being 50+, only landlines, etc). If the youth actually goes out and votes, do not expect a Hillary landslide. I think all Burnie supporters know his largest obstacle is beating Hillary.

They're primaries. The youth ain't doing shit. Hillary will be polling 20+ points above Bernie in all but a handful of states, and nothing supresses turnout like certain defeat.

[Gredival]

calling Obama center-right globally is absurd unless you consider the globe to consist of Scandinavia

I concede you are correct on a global scale; I was just going with the Western democracy frame of reference that people are always drawing upon to illustrate why Clinton (and Obama) are insufficiently liberal.

Too much bright Kool-aid being tossed around to see colors accurately.

[Serra]

A whopping 71% of likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina are leaning towards voting for Hillary Clinton, according to a new poll out on Wednesday from Winthrop University. Bernie Sanders takes 15% of the vote, while Martin O'Malley earns just 2%.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/04/politi...oll/index.html

[Kanriel]

I'd like to know what they mean by "screened for likelihood of voting in SC Democratic Presidential Primary". I know of one Iowa poll they basically only include people who voted in a previous democratic primary and this gave Hillary a much bigger lead than other polls.

Though a lot of SC seems to be the black vote, who simply don't know Sanders yet. He only just got one TV ad out in NH/Iowa, so he hasn't gotten to much of SC.

[notorious bum]

Hillary has been putting in work, along with the black misleadership class, on courting the black vote. She recently did a PR stunt with the mothers of Mike Brown, Tamir Rice, and Trayvon Martin, saying all the same things that BLM figure heads(Deray, Ms. Packett) have taught her. Folks like Shaun King have been calling her out on all of this, but it's probably too late, as noted, Bernie can't get the name ID fast enough to turn the tide.

[Kanriel]

Hillary has been putting in work, along with the black misleadership class, on courting the black vote. She recently did a PR stunt with the mothers of Mike Brown, Tamir Rice, and Trayvon Martin, saying all the same things that BLM figure heads(Deray, Ms. Packett) have taught her. Folks like Shaun King have been calling her out on all of this, but it's probably too late, as noted, Bernie can't get the name ID fast enough to turn the tide.

There's still plenty of time. He's competing fairly well in Iowa/NH. Wins there and a couple more months could get things done.

[Sho]

Real sham work she's playing with the mothers of those tragedies. I wish she didn't feel so damn fake with what she's doing.

[Tyrath]

Reminds me of the story of where Bernie met Sandra Bland's mother but never really made any mention of it other than bringing up Sandra's name during the debate, which he supposedly promised the mother he would do.

This is why he is the nominee we need right now, but probably not the one we deserve.