2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Sho]

[archibaldcrane]

There's still plenty of time. He's competing fairly well in Iowa/NH. Wins there and a couple more months could get things done.

He's down an average of 23 points in Iowa. If that's "competing fairly well" then uh...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ucus-3195.html

[Sho]

I see why Clinton is courting them, however fake it is though. These ignorant masses who are deeply following BLM (love the idea -- the movement is also a sham, and disruptive), would vote Bernie, or otherwise not vote at all. Clinton is playing the long game for the Black Vote for sure, starting with these these guys.

[archibaldcrane]

Are we cynical to the point where we believe all Hillary cares about is making Wall Street money and fuck everything else?

I think that's a pretty dishonest assessment.

[Marootsoobutsu]

Are we cynical to the point where we believe all Hillary cares about is making Wall Street money and fuck everything else?

I think that's a pretty dishonest assessment.

I legit think the only thing Hillary cares about is being regarded in history as a greater President than Bill.

[archibaldcrane]

I legit think the only thing Hillary cares about is being regarded in history as a greater President than Bill.

Well, that will take a lot of action on a lot of fronts - likely including improving the lives of black people and their relationship with the police. If that's her motivation, so be it.

[Gredival]

He's down an average of 23 points in Iowa. If that's "competing fairly well" then uh...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ucus-3195.html

The polls that show Hillary winning were all clearly flawed in methodology. Because polling firms whose survival depend on accuracy are all intentionally skewing the results as part of the Clinton-Wall St. conspiracy.

[Andalusian girls]

at least it is refreshing to see a Hilary Clinton is evil crowd composed of liberalistas rather than Foxes

[Sho]

I don't think she's without sympathy at all, I just believe her motivations simply don't come with pure intent in mind, like Sanders (or Kasich).

Her meeting with the mothers just echoes a response that was garnered from BLM disrupting her days earlier at Atlanta. She needs to stop being reactive to these types, and instead continue to stay the course, like she did prior to Biden dropping out of the race (she went to my alma matter, alongside many other HBUs to talk about civil rights). If it's her motivation to improve the lives of African Americans in the same vein as her husband, then I too am all in for it. However, it can't be in response to a group like BLM.

More so than this, even the most base and banal types of African Americans are starting to see through the facade of her being "authentic". She's going to have to push harder if she wants African Americans to come out and vote.

[archibaldcrane]

As she told the BLM people - you don't change hearts, you change laws. That's (hopefully going to be) her job.

[archibaldcrane]

Here's a great primer on Republican delegate fuckery and how traditionally blue states/districts' Republican voters are much more important than traditionally red states/districts and how that helps produce a moderate R candidate. Good news for Rubio/Bush/Fiorino/Christie, bad for Carson/Cruz, unclear how it affects Trump really.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...rson-and-cruz/

For example, three delegates are up for grabs in New York’s heavily Latino, Bronx-based 15th District, which cast just 5,315 votes for Romney in 2012. But there are also three delegates at stake in Alabama’s 6th District, which covers Birmingham’s whitest suburbs and gave Romney 233,803 votes. In other words, a GOP primary vote cast in the bluest part of the Bronx could be worth 43 times more than a vote cast in the reddest part of Alabama.
...
The average blue district awards one convention delegate per 28,912 Romney voters, while the average red district awards one delegate per every 56,714 Romney voters.

A similar situation is true for Dems, redder district Dems are more valuable than bluer ones.

[Gredival]

A similar situation is true for Dems, redder district Dems are more valuable than bluer ones.

But they aren't part of the grass roots revolution.

[Kanriel]

The polls that show Hillary winning were all clearly flawed in methodology. Because polling firms whose survival depend on accuracy are all intentionally skewing the results as part of the Clinton-Wall St. conspiracy.

That would likely only be true for single outliers. Hillary jumped up drastically this past week in Iowa, likely because of being in the news heavily from Benghazi.

Though one thing I do think is the smaller scale the poll, the less representative it is. In that a national poll is likely decently accurate, but a primary single state poll is probably a bit less likely to show the full picture and give a solid idea. This can even be backed up in the past:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...aucus-208.html

The polls all in a week varied from Obama up 7, to Clinton up 9, an average of Obama up 1.6, and the end result was Obama up 7.8. And Obama didn't start leading any Iowa polls until the latter part of November. And Sanders has led some of the polls already.

[archibaldcrane]

Bernie is not Obama.

[BerenTebogo]

Bernie is not Obama.

isn't he?

[Xno Kappa]

Bernie is not Obama.

Are you sure?

[Kyreth]

Clinton's playing the predictable, boring, and historically very effective game here of a well-honed politician.

The only way it doesn't work is if the Democratic voter base gets as sick of the status quo as the Republican one has, which is why we have a Carson/Trump race and the "predictable" candidates are languishing 10+ points behind in the polls.

[Marootsoobutsu]

Bernie is the white half of Obama. Clinton* is the black half.

Spoiler: show

Bill, that is

[Xno Kappa]

Bill kinda is the official first black president.

[Not Kuno]

The polls that show Hillary winning were all clearly flawed in methodology. Because polling firms whose survival depend on accuracy are all intentionally skewing the results as part of the Clinton-Wall St. conspiracy.

Do you really think we're going to have a low voter turnout this primary season? With the shitshow that is the GOP primary and the burnie hysteria going around? This is going to beat 2008 numbers and those were near record breaking. People are quick to forget Obama was losing to Hillary by 20 points the day of the Iowa primary.