2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Tyrath]

I can't believe I would ever have to say this in my life, but please Republicans do the right thing and vote Bush in the primaries. You only have wackos for the rest, and I do not want any of them to have a shot at the oval office.

What, no. I don't want them to put forward someone who might actually win the election. Carson/Trump all the way.

[Ksandra]

What, no. I don't want them to put forward someone who might actually win the election. Carson/Trump all the way.

You'll be eating socks when one of those chuckleheads win.

[Tyrath]

You'll be eating socks when one of those chuckleheads win.

It's not gonna happen. The crazy base is vocal and larger than one would like, but they're still not large enough to win a national election.

[archibaldcrane]

There's no indication that Rubio is "more crazy" than Bush really, and he's in a stronger position with better prospects.


re: argument over h2h polls from a while back - here's why they are legit meaningless a year out.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...on-polls/#fn-1


Huge error bars.

Note that in the current polling, you see lesser-known republicans (Carson, Bernie, even Fiorina) out-performing the better known ones (Clinton, Trump). Familiarity breeds contempt, and when people get to know the eventual nominees, they will fall in line.

[Gredival]

It's not gonna happen. The crazy base is vocal and larger than one would like, but they're still not large enough to win a national election.

Well polls put Carson beating Sanders (but not Clinton).

Though those are obviously part of the politic bourgeois conspiracy.

[Tyrath]

Well polls put Carson beating Sanders (but not Clinton).

Though those are obviously part of the politic bourgeois conspiracy.

I'm not expecting Sanders to be there so...

[Sho]

he's just not an effective campaigner, and with the anti-establishment rage that is dominating the current cycle his prospects were perhaps always slightly overstated given his family

that said in 2007 John McCain's polling also fell into single digits and he was forced to fire half his staff on account of budget shortfalls. Bush is dizzy on the ropes but not quite knocked out yet, especially when one takes into account the structural weaknesses of all the candidates in front of him (besides Rubio, who represents the most mortal threat to Bush's prospects given their constituent overlap)

With 14 others in the running, he really is losing ground however with each day that passes. Hence the reason why he's "re-branding" and making the shift from nice, honest progressive to douchebag what-the-fuck-are-you-guys-doing conservative like Kasich. Rubio is a younger, fresher version of Bush who has all but shaken his tea-party ties, so I agree with you there for being Bush's mortal threat.

I'll keep saying this until he concedes however -- Kasich is the right's best option if they want to win back the White House. Even better if Rubio is VP (the most threatening duo to Clinton and what I can assume will soon be Castro). Now it's up to the constituents to figure it out.

---

Meanwhile:

[Kyreth]

I can't believe I would ever have to say this in my life, but please Republicans do the right thing and vote Bush in the primaries. You only have wackos for the rest, and I do not want any of them to have a shot at the oval office.

The Republican Party won't do the required thing of confronting the crazy in their own ranks until one of the crazy ones ends up the Presidential candidate. The political equivalent of a nervous breakdown. There are relatively sane Republicans in the ranks, like Sen. Sasse of Nebraska, but they're going to be drowned out by the Tea Party wing until it collapses under it's own feverish weight.

[6souls]

Cruz has a cellphone app where users get points for digital street team activities. Sharing campaign messages on social media, volunteering, and giving up your personal information. A campaign contribution is worth 10 points while sharing your phone's contact list is worth 250 points. It will also ask for your name, email, phone number, address, dob, and so on.

[archibaldcrane]

There isn't really a "Tea Party Candidate" this cycle though. Trump and Carson are "outsiders" sure - but their nomination and loss wouldn't be a blow to the Tea Party.

[Ksandra]

Cruz has a cellphone app where users get points for digital street team activities. Sharing campaign messages on social media, volunteering, and giving up your personal information. A campaign contribution is worth 10 points while sharing your phone's contact list is worth 250 points. It will also ask for your name, email, phone number, address, dob, and so on.

I almost thought this was a brilliant marketing scheme. I had to look this shit up:

The only rewards top point-earners get are shout outs on Cruz's social media accounts. That's recognition enough for Quirk and other Cruz fans.

http://www.npr.org/2015/11/09/455225...gn-that-scores


lol

[Kyreth]

There isn't really a "Tea Party Candidate" this cycle though. Trump and Carson are "outsiders" sure - but their nomination and loss wouldn't be a blow to the Tea Party.

I fear that any failure here is going to be used an excuse to promote a TP hardliner as the 2020 candidate and an excuse to purge Old Republicans from power in the party. Another 4-8 years like this and I don't know how many traditional conservatives are going to be left in the power structure.

[Ksandra]

The Republican Party won't do the required thing of confronting the crazy in their own ranks until one of the crazy ones ends up the Presidential candidate. The political equivalent of a nervous breakdown. There are relatively sane Republicans in the ranks, like Sen. Sasse of Nebraska, but they're going to be drowned out by the Tea Party wing until it collapses under it's own feverish weight.

I disagree. Look, I fully admit the chances carson/trump get the nomination are slim. But I don't think it's impossible the way some bgers talk. I still remember bg peeps insisting tea partiers would never take a seat in congress, and they did.

I am definitely on the pessimistic side, but I'd rather be safe than sorry.

[6souls]

I almost thought this was a brilliant marketing scheme. I had to look this shit up:



http://www.npr.org/2015/11/09/455225...gn-that-scores


lol

That's the article I sourced. Top 3 earners are 70k, 15k, & 12k.

[Ksandra]

That's the article I sourced. Top 3 earners are 70k, 15k, & 12k.

Look at all these people that want twitter recognitions.

[Kyreth]

I disagree. Look, I fully admit the chances carson/trump get the nomination are slim. But I don't think it's impossible the way some bgers talk. I still remember bg peeps insisting tea partiers would never take a seat in congress, and they did.

I am definitely on the pessimistic side, but I'd rather be safe than sorry.

I agree with you. I think Trump or Carson have been alive long enough that they might just choke out the more conventional people running between them.

And Bush, speaking of prayers, has none at this point. His only real virtue at this point is being in the same family as two previous presidents, as he has zero charisma and not nearly enough fire to get the base motivated right now. He's skidding along on name recognition alone. Kasich or Rubio have better chances to be the "sanity pick" at this point.

[archibaldcrane]

Betting markets have Rubio as the odds-on favorite. Trump is 7/2 or so, Bush is 7/1 or so. Cruz and Carson are 9/1, noone else is closer than 20/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/...ican-candidate

[Kyreth]

You cannot make this shit up. I guess even pro-lifers have their limits.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/09/politi...inkId=18625262

[dasva]

That's some hard hitting journalism there. If there was one thing I wanted reporters to ask potential presidential candidates it's what they'd do in impossible time travel hypotheticals. I'm quite saddened that Jeb gave a serious answer though

[Xno Kappa]

He referenced back to the freaking future lol. It's dumb to even discuss whether or not he was serious.