2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[Kanriel]

I think the reason Trump is keeping the lead is because his whole image is based around a joke, and he plays along. The other candidates might jump closer to him, get a bit more spotlight, and can be seen as the jokes they are...while they're trying to play serious. Anytime Carson/Rubio/Cruz get close to the spotlight they get hammered by some of the crazy shit they say, but Trump owns his crazy shit, so it doesn't work against him as much as it does others.

Though I don't see Trump really going UP in polls, ever. So whether he wins or not is going to depend on if the field stays big long enough. If Carson/Cruz/Rubio/Paul/Bush/Kasich all stay in the whole primary season Trump could still hold on. And it would be a glorious thing, seeing someone who half the GOP likely considers a total joke and they hate...representing their party in the national spotlight. I was just browsing some Trump articles on facebook since he's trending with his $5 mil shenanigans and on Fox News the most-liked comment is fairly anti-Trump (and even somewhat thought out, not just a crude attack). He doesn't have broad support, and the democratic party will clearly get behind Hillary a lot more than the R's will get behind Trump.

Of course if Trump is the R candidate there's no reason Sanders couldn't destroy him in a national election. But two more months to see if there's much hope in that.

[Serra]

Of course if Trump is the R candidate there's no reason Sanders couldn't destroy him in a national election. But two more months to see if there's much hope in that.

I would say adorable, but at this point, I think dense is more appropriate.

Once they start having primaries, if the field stays big and Trump manages to win some delegates, that's when the Republicans should be really worried. January 18th is very close..

[Churchill]

[Ragnus]

Thank you for your remarkable contribution to this thread.

[archibaldcrane]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...election/#fn-1

Very interesting article about demographics.

Couple things I found interesting:

It’s true that if every demographic group were to carry its 2012 levels of turnout and party support into 2016, Democrats’ lead in the national popular vote would expand from 3.9 percentage points to 5.1 points based on population trends alone.

Yay minorities!

2) The power of the Latino vote is frequently overstated. Even if Latino and Asian/other turnout were to plummet to zero, Democrats would still win the Electoral College 283 to 255 — despite losing the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points. That’s because Latino and Asian voters are heavily concentrated in non-competitive states like California, New York and Texas.

/shrug minorities!

[Kachiko]

I don't think anyone actually believes democratic turnout will be the same, to re-elect the first black president, vs the first white female, but, who knows; it's not like she hasn't been abandoned before.

Also, Trump is playing both parties, for the fool; sure, he's in it to win it, but even if he doesn't, he stands to gain so much from it; it's literally the 'Art of the Deal', in action. I still don't think he'll actually win; he has no path to get more then the current % he's stayed at, and as other candidates drop out, it's likely to be Rubio/Jeb/Cruz to pick up enough to actually win. Out of the three, Rubio/Cruz would provide the starkest contract of options, for the country, and that's what we really need; two clear, and concise roads, for the country to decide which they want to purse.

[Serra]

Bush is now polling at 3% -- and dropping.

The 3% figure puts Bush in sixth place in the national GOP race, according to the CNN/ORC poll released Friday morning.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politi...ent/index.html

[archibaldcrane]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politi...ent/index.html

That poll is trash.

[archibaldcrane]

Also, Trump is playing both parties, for the fool; sure, he's in it to win it, but even if he doesn't, he stands to gain so much from it; it's literally the 'Art of the Deal', in action.

[notorious bum]

“Sounds like we will make some serious money," said Goldman executive of housing crash. He gave $100k to Hillary.
https://theintercept.com/2015/12/04/...sis-profiteer/

[Galkaeater]

[thetruepandagod]

That is... painful to watch.

[Salodin]

The face he makes...ouch.

[Waraji]

Please tell me that was a dub, and a laugh track o0o at the end. That is the only logical explanation.

[Bukadan]

stupid picture

not sure if trolling, but you seem to be propagating a meme/photo that exposes people's inability to understand why people should be influenced by facts/empirical data as opposed to belief/opinion.this is perhaps one of the biggest generational gap issues there is, however it spills into the more recent generations. this means that people (mostly old, who vote, and some young who also tend to vote when of this mind) who "believe" that x+y=z(not necessarily an addition problem, its an example ect.) receive far more credit/argumentative stock when confronted with the facts/empirical evidence that it is actually x+y=a. wouldn't you agree?

[Churchill]

I'm pretty much saying that 18 year olds have no business voting.

[Bukadan]

yeah, i understand that. but that has absolutely nothing to do with the reason people have been boasting about bernies ideas. the meme propagates something far more sinister in reality, pretending that opinions/beliefs trump empirical data/facts when a distinction must be made.

[Churchill]

I think it's pretty accurate. People who think Sanders will win don't live in reality.

Is that right? Is that how the elections are supposed to work? Both good questions. Both have answers and solutions that aren't related to Bernie Sanders.

Bernie Sanders appeals to kids because socialism is appealing to kids. Not all of those ideas are bad ideas, but they also don't work extremely well for Europe right now. They're economies are being crippled under the debt of social welfare and their governments are flooded with the same type of liberal governments that existed 85 years ago in Europe.

I don't particularly think that a photo where Bernie says 2+2=something and a bunch of kids start shouting it as fact is too far from reality. The reality that Bernie Sanders supporters don't live in, mind you.

Bernie's actual conduct is irrelevant to me. He could be the most honest, a truly honest, politician to ever live. He could recite fact after fact in support of his arguments. It's irrelevant because the people in that photo, his largest supporting base, are children.

[Tyrath]

You don't have to think someone will win to want to further the causes they stand for.

[Churchill]

Good thing by the time the next election rolls around, assuming an incumbent victory, they'll be old enough to not be children and the cause is lost.

Unless you're my brother. He's still dumb enough to think Obama was a good choice.

Edit: I shouldn't say choice, because that implies he was the better of a set of options which I could see an argument for.

My brother thinks Obama is one of the greatest presidents ever.