2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[pohibaba]

I was hoping Huntsman would run again. While I haven't looked into him enough to know whether I'd vote for him, I thought he had some good ideas from the R side of the ballot.

[quannum]

Romney out already.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0L30F820150130

Romney, the 2012 Republican nominee, announced he would not run in a statement he read to supporters in a conference call from New York.

"After putting considerable thought into making another run for president, I’ve decided it is best to give other leaders in the party the opportunity to become our next nominee," Romney said in his statement.

He made clear he felt he would be able to raise enough money for a campaign, rejecting a narrative that has grown in recent days as some major 2012 fund-raisers expressed concern about another Romney run.

[Cantih]

I didn't expect it to happen. One of the other R candidates has already put out their 10 years of tax returns, and Romney wasn't going to get away with skipping that again.

[notorious bum]

I thought everyone already assumed he wasn't running when the Kock bros. gave him the cold shoulder?

[Andalusian girls]

Romney out already.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0L30F820150130

somewhere Jeb is doing a jig. establishment/moderate Republicans should coalesce around him now

[Gredival]

Christie still potentially coming in.

[archibaldcrane]

Christie's approval ratings are pretty terrible. I don't see him winning anything.

[ringthree]

I am kinda surprised no one posted this yet, but Hillary is going to be tough to beat.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...3f8_story.html

Important things to note in this poll: Hillary cleanly beats everyone, by about the same margin and by about the same total. Thats really strong and consistent even for this early in the race. Additionally, in every poll she has over 50% support. Another strong sign.

[Andalusian girls]

polling data this far out is next to meaningless but yes, Hilary is obviously a very strong candidate. she gave Obama a far harder fight than Romney or McCain did

[Ksandra]

I've said it in the past, but I kinda hope it isn't Hillary on the D ticket.

Not that I wouldn't love to see her as president, but because 1. most people are shouting about dynasties which hurts her chances greatly imo, 2. The R's have spent the past 2+ years doing anything and everything to discredit her (hi2ubengazi), that I think they would get thrown for a loop if it was someone else who they wouldn't be prepared to counter.

While I normally would like to say I will look at each candidate carefully, this round I will vote for whichever dem it ends up being. Obamacare is just too important to me to let any R trying to fuck it up. I know they can't get rid of it completely, but I have zero doubt they will be trying to weaken it in any way they can.

[ringthree]

polling data this far out is next to meaningless but yes, Hilary is obviously a very strong candidate. she gave Obama a far harder fight than Romney or McCain did

Actually, it's not. It more shows broader trends, but most pollsters and poll aggregators (Nate Silver, e.g.) agree that it does help to understand the tone of the race.

For example, Obama basically won his second term by the same amount as the polls showed really far out.

Also, note that I didn't say the poll itself was important, but the trends from it. Above 50% is large in any case. 10%+ is large in any case.

[Andalusian girls]

polling this far out predicted Giuliani-Hilary in 2008 and Huckabee in 2012, and we didn't need it to suggest to us that Hilary was a strong candidate as she had already proven her campaigning ability and popular appeal in 2008, as well as the strength of her family's political network

the tone of the race will be determined primarily by the economy and how the Republican Congress legislates over the next two years. any Republican nominee could be badly damaged by social conservative fanaticism or political intransigence that leads to government dysfunction, any Democrat will be greatly aided by continued economic recovery. there is also a baseline bias for Democrats in national campaigns, they have won 5 of the last 6 presidential elections in popular vote. the broader the electorate gets the worse Republicans do, the nation's demographics are increasingly stacked against them (fewer and fewer white men all the time).

this is obviously irrespective of the campaigners themselves. Obama's gift of oratory obliterated all predictive polling, Giuliani having the personality of a petty and mean-spirited coat rack made him less popular in whatever state he was actually campaigning in

[kuronosan]

I couldn't help but notice how all the Republicans are starting to spew bullshit about strengthening the middle class.

Fucking disgusting pandering assholes till the end.

[test123]

I couldn't help but notice how all the Republicans are starting to spew bullshit about strengthening the middle class.

Fucking disgusting pandering assholes till the end.

So having the people at the bottom pay less taxes is a bad thing then?

[Dantrag]

So having the people at the bottom pay less taxes is a bad thing then?

Pretty sure that wasn't his point. His point was that now that after 15+ years of being told that trickle down economics works, they're attaching themselves to a message that has been said by the other side for 10+ years(yet collect almost a billion dollars for super pacs for their side...)

[kuronosan]

Pretty sure that wasn't his point. His point was that now that after 15+ years of being told that trickle down economics works, they're attaching themselves to a message that has been said by the other side for 10+ years(yet collect almost a billion dollars for super pacs for their side...)

This.

Keep up, test.

[Gredival]

Chris Christie says that immunization should be parental decisions after a few months ago he argued that the forcible quarantine of an Ebola exposed nurse was a public health issue

Everyone now dogpiling him for hypocrisy. Even conservative pundits saying his campaign is over.

Christie: “It’s more important what you think as a parent than what you think as a public official. I also understand that parents need to have some measure of choice in things as well. So that’s the balance that the government has to decide.”

http://politicalwire.com/2015/02/02/...-vaccinations/

[archibaldcrane]

It would be one thing if he was a hardcore libertarian saying that but he's not, what a bizarre position to take.

[Tyrath]

That's fucking stupid. Part of me feels like he never wanted to run so maybe he's just taking a dumb position that he knows will get him out of it. /tinfoil

[Gredival]

It would be one thing if he was a hardcore libertarian saying that but he's not, what a bizarre position to take.

Speaking of hardcore libertarians...

Rand Paul is saying most vaccinations should be “voluntary,” and that a parent’s choice not to vaccinate a child is “an issue of freedom." Cites autism: “I have heard of many tragic cases of walking, talking normal children who wound up with profound mental disorders after vaccines.”

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000351424

YOUR GOP FIELD LADIES AND GENTLEMEN!