2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[myreality]

Love it.

[Gredival]

Bernie Sanders will see the surge of millennial voters / young voters that Obama had back in 08. And there I was just thinking how crazy that is, sure given a novelty candidate, that would boost attendance of younger voters, but the problem is him getting the nomination. I don't think young voters are as interested in the Primary elections as they would be for a General. Am I off here?

You're right that there's a problem getting the youth to vote in the primaries; we can't even get them to turn out for midterms. There's no doubt the youth vote swamps the senior vote, but everyone agrees the senior vote is the better bloc to have in demographics because they actually show up to the polls.

But more than that, I think Bernie's gains there would be offset by how offputting he is to more important swing vote blocs in purple states.

[Gredival]

Planned Parenthood endorses Hillary: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...llary-clinton/

Clinton has also secured the support of Rep. George Butterfield (D-NC), chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus.

You get automatic citizenship if you're born abroad to American parents. It counts the same as being born here.

Actually Cruz's problem is a bit more complex than that. Your American parent must meet certain residency tests before your birth in order for citizenship to issue to you. Cruz's mom could solve the issue by providing a detailed list of all of her addresses up to the moment of Cruz's birth, which could then become the subject of a lawsuit.

[archibaldcrane]

Your American parent must meet certain residency tests before your birth in order for citizenship to issue to you.

Source?

[archibaldcrane]

Hmm, there is something there although I doubt Cruz's mom would fail this test:

In general, a Child Born Outside the U.S. is a Citizen at Birth when the Child’s Parents Are Not Married to each other at the Time of Birth...IF...The genetic or non-genetic gestational legal mother is a U.S. citizen at the time of birth, and the birth date is after December 23, 1952...AND...The mother had previously been physically present in the United States or one of its outlying possessions for a continuous period of at least one year.

https://www.uscis.gov/us-citizenship...hrough-parents

edit pretty sure his parents were married at the time

so there's not a category on that chart that applies to him

need another source

[Kryssan]

Edit Nevermind Archi already got it.

[Gredival]

Source?

https://www.uscis.gov/us-citizenship...hrough-parents

For Cruz, this is the relevant condition:

"In general, a Child Born Outside the U.S. is a Citizen at Birth when the Child’s Parents Are Not Married to each other at the Time of Birth...IF

The genetic or non-genetic gestational legal mother is a U.S. citizen at the time of birth, and the birth date is after December 23, 1952

AND ...

The mother had previously been physically present in the United States or one of its outlying possessions for a continuous period of at least one year."

[archibaldcrane]

Here we go:

Sec. 301. [8 U.S.C. 1401] The following shall be nationals and citizens of the United States at birth:

...

(g) a person born outside the geographical limits of the United States and its outlying possessions of parents one of whom is an alien, and the other a citizen of the United States who, prior to the birth of such person, was physically present in the United States or its outlying possessions for a period or periods totaling not less than five years, at least two of which were after attaining the age of fourteen years:

So yeah, his mom would have had to have been physically present in the United States for a period or periods totaling not less than five years, at least two of which were after attaining the age of fourteen years.

[archibaldcrane]

Oh wait, his parents weren't married when he was born? Ok.

[Kanriel]

But more than that, I think Bernie's gains there would be offset by how offputting he is to more important swing vote blocs in purple states.

Wat? Bernie destroys Hillary when it comes to independents. She's just more solid than that when it comes to her own party.

[Tyrath]

The part about the moderate republican had me dying. Sadly true though.

[Fiye]

I saw that PP endorsed Hilary on my facebook. When I checked out the comments it was nothing but people calling out for them to endorse Bernie sanders.

[Gredival]

Wat? Bernie destroys Hillary when it comes to independents. She's just more solid than that when it comes to her own party.

Lol.

Including registered independents who regularly vote Democrats sure.

"Swing vote blocs in purple states" refers to those "folksy" people in FL, WV, VA, SC, NC, etc. that Obama needed Biden to lock up. People who probably don't care about marriage equality and who think socialism is in fact a dirty word. Who somehow need to be convinced every cycle that the Democrats' populist economics are probably better for them than trickle down tax cuts.

In other words, the ones who sadly actually determine an election.

[Byrthnoth]

...needed Biden to lock up.

8 more years!

8 more years!

[Serra]

When did the Iowa Caucus get pushed back..? Also, how did I miss that it got pushed back? >.>;

Maybe I just recorded it before a date was decided.. In any case, is it February 1st yet??

Democrats:
Same -- Hilldog 50+%, Sanders ~40%, O'Malley 3%

Republicans:
Trump (35%), Cruz (20%), Rubio (13%), Carson (10%), and Bush (4%) are the top five (look at Bush, back in the top five, good for him).

[Blubbartron]

When did the Iowa Caucus get pushed back..? Also, how did I miss that it got pushed back? >.>;

Maybe I just recorded it before a date was decided.. In any case, is it February 1st yet??

Democrats:
Same -- Hilldog 50+%, Sanders ~40%, O'Malley 3%

Republicans:
Trump (35%), Cruz (20%), Rubio (13%), Carson (10%), and Bush (4%) are the top five (look at Bush, back in the top five, good for him).

Where are those numbers from? I was watching meet the press just yesterday and they had Sanders within a few percentage points of Clinton.

[archibaldcrane]

Where are those numbers from? I was watching meet the press just yesterday and they had Sanders within a few percentage points of Clinton.

In Iowa or nationally?

Either way, looking at individual polls instead of polling averages is going to result in having a bad time.

[Serra]

He's close in Iowa, but not nationally.

Latest poll is a Fox News poll released on the 8th.

Spoiler: show

Inb4 "you can't trust it, it's from Fox."

If you look at the recent trend, this one is the most generous to Sanders -- the previous five have him closer to 30%.

[archibaldcrane]

Next Dem debate is this Sunday, primetime, no football to compete with, and potentially no Martin O'Malley to gum things up. It will be Bernie's last chance to make a big impression going into Iowa and New Hampshire, and it's held in South Carolina.

[Serra]

"Everyone will be too fatigued from a day of watching the playoffs."