2016 USA Presidential election thread I: The warm-up

[myreality]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_Uf5KElMkI

30 seconds in for a 2 minute clip of the carrot stick talking about 9/11 and Iraq.

Also holy shit, i can't believe i missed this.


Full Debate just uploaded. Potato quality though.

[archibaldcrane]

I saw 0% of the debate. Please tell me someone said Ted Cruz speaks Spanish like a Canadian.

Wait

Does Jeb speak better Spanish than Cruz does?

[Fiye]

It was garbage spanish.

http://gawker.com/republicans-yell-a...e-e-1759019826

Gawker has a clip of it.

[Andalusian girls]

I saw 0% of the debate. Please tell me someone said Ted Cruz speaks Spanish like a Canadian.

Wait

Does Jeb speak better Spanish than Cruz does?

Jeb speaks better Spanish than most native Spanish speakers i know

[tyven]

What did Cruz attempt to say? Me no Habla you guys

[Andalusian girls]

Rubio is talking over him but i think 'a si ti quiere diselo, ahora mismo, diselo ahora en Espanol si quieres' - roughly- if you want, right now, say the same in Spanish to them if you want

which is functional but functional garbage and his pronunciation is a catastrophe even for a Cuban (BOOM)

though i wonder how Bernie's Hebrew is

[Quicklet]

I stumbled upon an hour long interview with Bernie Sanders from a few months back as part of a podcast series David Axelrod does. It is actually fascinating and clarifying if you're interested in knowing a little more detail about Bernie's political philosophy. All the talking points that are condensed down into his typical stump speech are present, but you also get to see a significant amount of the reasoning behind many of those ideas.

https://soundcloud.com/the-axe-files...bernie-sanders

For people who don't have an hour to listen or don't want to skim through, here are the highlights:

Spoiler: show

- his belief that most people don't appreciate the toll that war takes on veterans and military families, so he views military action as a last resort but important when necessary (voted against both Iraq wars, for Afghanistan war and for intervention in Kosovo)

- his use of coalition politics to succeed in his elections in Vermont and drive voter turnout

- his feeling that people in Washington are way out of touch with the views and concerns of the average person

- he believes that early on Obama was too eager to compromise with Republicans when they had no interest in doing so, and Obama failed to maintain political involvement from his coalition once he got elected

- real change on issues has to be driven by the grassroots activism, he doesn't expect to walk into the White House and have Republicans just compromise on things like raising minimum wage, expanding health care, etc.

- his campaigns haven't used polling a lot, but when they did they were used primarily to figure out how to respond to political attacks against him and not to shape his own message

- his ideas are not about idealism or purity but are about using politics to drive support for issues that have popular/majority support

- gerrymandering has always been an issue in politics but it's gotten worse

- he opposed the Brady bill because it didn't include an instant background check; he suggests his past votes on guns might be different if he were representing Brooklyn and not Vermont

- he's generally supportive of the work Bill Clinton did as president but has major differences with some of the economic policies he enacted during that time (NAFTA, deregulation, etc.)

- he says outright that it's compromising for Hillary Clinton to be taking money from Super PACs

- he's gratified with the reception his campaign has gotten (remember this is 4 months ago) and wouldn't regret running even if he doesn't win the primary

This was by far more informative than anything I've seen out of Sanders in a debate or town hall, and I wish something like this existed for all of the major candidates in both parties. It strips away all the bullshit that comes from prepackaged political speeches and sound bites.

[Tyche]

FWIW, SCOTUSblog believes it'll be Paul Watford getting tapped for the nomination.

http://www.scotusblog.com/2016/02/ni...ntonin-scalia/

[Gryffes]

CBS poll on SC

Trump: 42
Cruz: 20
Rubio: 15
Kasich: 9

Is it too late for anyone to beat trump?

This is going to be so fucking glorious.

[Marootsoobutsu]

CBS poll on SC

Trump: 42
Cruz: 20
Rubio: 15
Kasich: 9

Is it too late for anyone to beat trump?

This is going to be so fucking glorious.

Trump has to win 50%+1 delegates from primaries/caucuses, or he's not going to get the nomination.

He's not going to get 50%+1 delegates from the primaries/caucuses, so he's not going to get the nomination.

[Sho]

Trump has to win 50%+1 delegates from primaries/caucuses, or he's not going to get the nomination.

He's not going to get 50%+1 delegates from the primaries/caucuses, so he's not going to get the nomination.

Iono, I think it's finally time for you guys to start panicking.

[Minions]

Trump has to win 50%+1 delegates from primaries/caucuses, or he's not going to get the nomination.

He's not going to get 50%+1 delegates from the primaries/caucuses, so he's not going to get the nomination.

He can always run independent like he threatened, which could make things even more interesting. If he does, and Bloomberg runs independent... who knows what is going to happen.

[Niiro]

If he did run as an independent he would pretty much be confirmed for deep cover democrat.

[Fiye]

Surprising nobody, Ted Cruz vows to filibusters any nominee by Obama



Favorite bit is 2:18.

[archibaldcrane]

Surprising nobody, Ted Cruz vows to filibusters any nominee by Obama

Just as the founding fathers intended.

[Andalusian girls]

yo diria el es un feo y poquito burro con inteligencia limite pero el burro medio sabe mas

Iono, I think it's finally time for you guys to start panicking.

as a part time conservative i'm certainly panicking (well not really because Hilldog is my kind of Democrat). i was one of the many skeptics of Trump's chances but the deck has enviably broken in his favor with Rubio, Bush, and Kasich presently, and without an apparent temporal terminus, splitting the moderate Republican vote. further, the evangelical bloc would find far likelier natural allies in either Rubio's strict pro-life Catholicism or in the big brother of the Bush they once propelled to the White House than in a thrice-married New York businessman who once loved abortion and hates Dubya, but their vote is locked down in perpetuity with Cruz's ascendance to viability.

Trump's unique coalition has a hard ceiling so long as there are respectable alternatives but also an apparent basement of 30ish and so long as Rubio idles at 15-20 and Kasich and Bush gobble up 10-20 between them it will prove enough. and as nothing begets success like success with every passing victory Trump's inevitability becomes cemented and his opponents either jump ship to the winning side or simply detach from a futile process.

moderates successfully forced their will upon the nativist and tea party and evangelical components of the party with McCain and Romney, but those victories may have bred complacency in the notion they could always successfully contain the radical elements of the Republican base, and left them oblivious to the danger that an insurgent candidate could overwhelm the adults in the room so long as they remain divided, as they presently are.

Trump has to be considered the present favorite to win the Republican nomination, though he may still be at a plurality of probability rather than an outright majority. the party has precious little time to consolidate behind an alternate candidate

[Cjskater]

Trump has to win 50%+1 delegates from primaries/caucuses, or he's not going to get the nomination.

He's not going to get 50%+1 delegates from the primaries/caucuses, so he's not going to get the nomination.

Blue state votes are worth more.

[Fiye]

But if trump keeps winning 30-40% victories then he's never going to capture that 50%+1 majority he needs to just outright win the nomination.

[Andalusian girls]

But if trump keeps winning 30-40% victories then he's never going to capture that 50%+1 majority he needs to just outright win the nomination.

about 15 of the Republican primaries are winner-take-all, another dozen are winner-take-all if they pass a certain threshold of the popular vote, usually 50%. a candidate can nab 50% of delegates without nabbing 50% of the vote total

and as stated if Trump continues to smash the competition as he did in New Hampshire and is apparently about to do in South Carolina his vote totals will climb

[Quicklet]

Sure, but neither will Cruz or the establishment leftovers either. So we get a contested convention and all bets are off then as to what happens.